About the GB, over the years

by Duncan 5 Replies latest jw friends

  • Duncan
    Duncan

    Dear everyone

    Following the death of Carey Barber, and the subsequent postings about how long all the GB chaps seem to live, I thought I'd do a bit of work on the composition of the GB over the years.

    I have attached (I hope) a couple of graphs showing the results of the work.

    I took as my starting date 1974, when there were, it seems, 17 members at an average age of 65. By 1977 there had been 3 deaths, and in 1977 there were 4 appointments, at an average age of 71.

    Over the next 17 years there were half-a-dozen deaths, and 3 resignations, including the spectacular Ray Franz incident, but remarkably, not a single appointment in all that time. Perhaps the GB when it was set up in the early 70's had over-recruited. Seventeen members does seem an unwieldy number for a senior management team, maybe the power politics involved in wresting control from Knorr/Franz had been such that there were promises to repay to many of the players, so they all got a place at the top table. Whatever, during that time the body just grew older together, and by 1994 the average age was 82 (the highest it would ever get), but they were down to 11 members.

    In 1994 they recruit Gerrit Losch. What on earth had he done to get noticed so young? He joins the governing body in 1994 at 52 years of age, fully 30 years younger than the average age, and starts the trend going for a younger GB.

    Since then, there have been appointments in 1999 (4 of them, average age 59) and 2005 (2 people average age 53).

    The Body now consists of only 9 people, much lower than its historic average membership of 12-14 people. And an average age (post Barber) of 68.

    The time would seem ripe now for another influx of fresh blood. It would seem likely that they'll recruit, say 4 members, and continuing the younger-GB trend already started, it would be no surprise if they were all in their early 50's.

    That would make a team of around a dozen, average age maybe as low as 63 or 64. A much, much younger GB and all totally dominated, of course by the Boss, Ted Jaracz, at 82 the senior man ( well, behind the 94-year-old John Barr. Is he a player still, or senile?).

    I wonder what changes may come? And what happens when Jaracz goes? Next senior after him may well be that Sam Herd chap, apparently hand-picked for the GB by Jaracz himself, according to some GB-watchers on this site. Do you suppose Herd is just waiting his chance? What new direction might he take, if any?

    Who knows? Maybe they're all just followers of followers now. But one can't help hoping for some enlightened leadership to break out in JW-land, if only for the sake of the poor old rank-and-file trapped within.

    Duncan.

    p.s Jackson, latest recruit, was only 19 in 1974, at the start of my analysis. A GB member younger than me! I can't get my head around it.

  • ex-nj-jw
    ex-nj-jw

    Very interesting Duncan,

    I wonder why the younger age members and if they will be more "open minded" than the older GB members.

    ???????

    nj

  • IT Support
    IT Support
    the 94-year-old John Barr. Is he a player still, or senile?

    I don't think he's senile, but he's never been a 'player.'

    Sadly, the man's so spineless he makes a jellyfish look resolute. He just goes with the flow, won't do anything to create a fuss.

  • greendawn
    greendawn

    They probably decided that they need some stability so they got in some younger members who are not likely to die any time soon. Otherwise they will be having lots of funerals and new people to initiate in the secret workings of the GB all the time. It's a bit like the Soviet leaders dying fast in succession during the 1980's.

  • tijkmo
    tijkmo

    surely any new members will just be those that are guaranteed to stick to the old mottos.

    anyone showing an inkling of 'independant' 'thinking' will be ignored

  • Duncan
    Duncan

    A bit more on this.

    The attached graph shows the average number of years of GB experience each member had, every year since 1974. Taking the starting point - 1974, obviously, the GB had been in existence then 3 years, since 1971, so the average for everyone was 3 years' experience.

    As you would expect, the figure goes up year by year until the mid-nineties, when the average GB member has 20 years worth of GB service.

    But that's when deaths and new appointments start bringing the average down. particularly in 1999 when they took on 4 new guys all at once.

    The 9 men making up the current GB are, historically speaking, quite an inexperienced GB with only 15 years average experience each.

    But the really striking point I want to make is this: if things do work out as I speculated in the post above - 4 new guys coming in, and 94 year old John Barr dies, the only one left with any long years of experience is Jaracz. It would be a body of 12 people sharing 85 years of GB experience, that's 36 to Ted, and an average of 4 each in the other 11 guys.

    You can't help thinking that he would dominate utterly, much more so than even today.

    Maybe things are going to get worse for the poor Witnesses before they get better.

    Duncan

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