Show me the numbers!

by Skimmer 4 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Skimmer

  It's been two weeks since the Brooklyn Boys got in all the statistics totals from the 2001 DisService Year. Yet there has been nary a peep from any who know. Shouldn't there have been a few leaks by now?

  They say that figures don't lie, but liars can figure. Could there been some special "figuring" going on inside of "God's Only True Channel"? But perhaps not; it would be easier for them to stop publishing the more damning totals than to try and fake anything.

  It may be that the near certain continuance of baptism declines in first world countries (their primary revenue source) will provide extra motivation for the inevitable mainstreaming effort.

  And maybe the WTBTS will stop reporting by country and instead give totals by continent or region to make things look better.

  Who will be the helpful person to be the first to post reliable numbers to the board? You'll have twelve months of minor fame, and maybe a reputation for being an insider source.
• 

  dungbeetle

  Well here's two hints:

  1) Just recently in a WT the org stated that about 330,000 were baptized in the past year (actually per year in recent years or some such thing;) then deduct about 1% for death, and 40,000 for average disfellowshippings.

  2) At the District Convention this year near me, it was reported that 2, 163, 602 attended memorial this year in the US. Last year it was 2, 153, 268. Consider 1% for death and 30,290 baptisms...and you get...no surprises.

  One point that concerns me is that in at least one case, and possibly one other, the WT has been caught counting 'inactive' publishers in their numbers. Which is fine as long as they SAY they're doing that. One now has to wonder if this has been going on for some time. Which means the number of JW's is actually far far lower than they claim.

  And another thing I am wondering is, if the Org's 'charity' work is contributing to their rise in numbers in the third world. Something they have criticized other religions for doing.

  We shall see..Run, Watchtower, Run!!!

  Dungbeetle...so much dung, so little time...
• 

  Moxy

  the memorial figures fluctuate wildly because the date falls on different days of the week from year to year, sometimes convenient, sometimes conflicting with Friends season finale so u cant tell much from 2 consecutive memorial numbers. the one to watch will be the baptisms. this was been in a nasty spiral the last couple years.

  i also dont worry too much about number-fudging. there would simply have to be too many people involved for this to be credible. what constitutes a publisher is well-defined: anyone reporting time in the year. this could mean they are inactive since february and would be counted. you may think thats unfair but its consistent.

  mox
• 

  pettygrudger

  Wouldn't the decline be another fulfilled "prophecy". didn't they say there would be a "dramatic" decline in the preaching work? Just wondering how they would use this to their advantage.
• 

  Skimmer

  They might try eliminating certain categories in the reports. For example, I note that the "Average Publishers" column does not appear in the report posted to the official site; we only get "Peak Publishers". They might drop the year-to-year comparisons, or only give them for the less significant statistics like "Total Hours". Maybe they will go to a moving average system to hide sudden drops.

  Note that they have usually named the literature placement figures as representing "Bibles and Bible-based Literature". I'd like to see the number of bibles split into a separate column, but I'm not going to hold my breath for it.

  I predict that the calculated statistic of hours per baptism will hit a new high. However, that in part will be due to a new high in faking hours in individuals' field service reports.

  Some informative numbers that we're unlikely to see:

  1) DF/DA counts by country
  2) Elder/MS turnover rate (including DF/DA)
  3) Net/Gross revenue by country; also, administrative costs
  4) Government subsidies by country
  5) Literature placements by language
  6) Real estate expenditures by country
  7) Gain/loss due to stock transactions
  8) Lawsuits