Expect JW's to actually grow over the next few years

yaddayadda

I'm quite sure that they will. They had, what, an 1.6% worldwide annual publisher growth increase last service year? Contrary to many predictions, I think they will better that this service year (ending 30 September). And I think there will be ongoing increases for the next few service years.

Why? Because of the increasing tension in the middle East. The Iraq situation is going to go on and there is a storm brewing over Iran that has the potential to lead to another world war.

The US will definitely strike at Iran militarily & they are likely to do it before Bush's tenure as President ends at the end of 2008. Many commentators are predicting it. America knows it made a big mistake in letting North Korea develop nuclear technology and they don't intend to let it happen again. The US could not afford to let Saddam Hussein develop nuclear weaponry capability and they certainly cannot afford to let Iran develop it. It's as simple as that really, despite what else you hear about pretexts and US imperialism and geo/political/oil ambitions.

There are also increasing reports and media attention being given to claims that Al Qaeda has very probably already become the world's 11th nuclear power, or is very close to it. If you bone up on this subject it is frightening to read about. The horse has already bolted. They already have the ability to deploy at least a 'dirty nuke' (which is not a full nuclear explosion but nearly as devastating) on US soil. Al Qaeda actually has a huge and diabolical advantage over the US; you cannot retaliate against an unseen enemy with no geographic location to strike against, like any typical country or state has. And what sets Al Qaeda apart is that they have made it plain that they have the desire, will and intent to actually do it. This makes them a unique and practically unbeatable new enemy like nothing before. It's a whole new playing field for the US. All of the US's military might and vast nuclear Arsenal means nothing against such a new enemy because it will only take 1 devastating nuclear explosion on US soil to bring the US to it's knees.

A lot of authorities on this subject are saying it is only a matter of when, not if! Don't take my word for it, do some research for yourself.

The point is: The increasing awareness and media attention being focused on such frightening future scenarios is going to increasingly excite JW's belief over the next few years to the effect that the end is right around the corner, like never before!

JW's live for this stuff. Their loyalty to the Watchtower Society is not so much about truth or Christianity - it is about belief that Armageddon is near and their survival depends on allegiance to the Watchtower. The more they are convinced the end is near, the more the organisation grows.

Despite all the years of disconfirmation, doubts, and disillusionment, these scary world developments on the horizon are what will keep JW's growing in the next few years. More inactive and fringe JW's will be scared into coming back and more people worried about the future will start studying. Remember, JW's are not the only ones expecting the end of the world to happen soon...there is a huge increase in membership of modern style religions, who are more and more excited by developments in the Middle East and honestly believe something incredible is about to happen soon. I believe the JW's will experience a similar trend but on a much smaller scale.

I hope I am wrong, but with the world scene hotting up and nasty developments on the horizon, don't expect the JW's to disappear soon.

Yadda

IP_SEC

If they stay or go
grow or shrink
it matters not to me
They are banished from my life
Therefore they do not exist.

shell69

Bravo IP_SEC.

Couldnt have put it better

Shell

The-Borg

If that scenario happens the state will move to destroy them.

Shepherd Book

The service year ends on August 31, not September 30.

jaguarbass

The Wac Tower Society is a great American Company. They find a need and fill it. The need is certainty in an uncetain world. The need is comfort and protection. Many other religions offer the same thing. How much do you want to pay for it? 10% cult control Drugs and alcohol So many choices

aniron

Why? Because of the increasing tension in the middle East. The Iraq situation is going to go on and there is a storm brewing over Iran that has the potential to lead to another world war.

This would not just apply to JW's. Many Evangelical churches are increasing also because they emphasis Israel and Middle East situation as being part of Biblical prophecy.

Also many times in the past JW's have pointed to situations as a "sign" that the "end" is near. They played on 9/11 and every war and disaster before and since, as being a sign that the end was near, did that didn't increase their numbers all that much. They experience a bit of growth then it dies off. As in the time prior to 1975 and other dates they set.

Also on the other side of things is that many have also turn from God and religion because they look at the Middle East and think if thats what religion has done then I want no part of any.

fresia

Its a culmination of things to the JW's not just the Middle East, but the weather changes, the earthquatkes, for example since 2005 March when the planets were lined up and the Earth turned and the amout of natural disasters has increased dramatically. Also the threat of Sars, Aids, and worry of a new Influenza virus is also part of the sign which JW look at, most other religions don't look at a composite sign. The season is ripe according to Jesus words, so tensions politically are one thing and that can change overnight.

There is sooooooooo much more happening with the inability to control the masses as increase of crimes, mental illness and of course the greed of capitalism, and it goes on. So point is it is not just the war in the middle east it is unrest everywhere, and the average Joe thinks of his hip pocket before he thinks of Iraq or Iran.

Justitia Themis

I expect that JWs will continue to grow, but not for the reasons you have stated. That average JW that pays very little attention to world events and understands them even less. Whenever I try to discuss with them the most remedial socio-geo-political events, all I get is a glazed look.

I disagree with your conclusion that possible nuclear capabilities, not oil, is the root cause of the war; I suggest you read "American Theocracy." It was recommended to my daughter by her boss in D.C., and she then recommended it to me. It is a very detailed book, but it is well worth the time spent.

Iraq is hardly the first "resource" war, nor will it be the last. In fact, Mr. Phillips (and others such as James A. Paul of the UN-based Global Policy Forum, Williams Engdahl and Stephen Pelletiere) makes a compelling case that we are in the "Hundred Years' Oil War."

And yes, terrorist groups already have dirty bomb capabilties. This last summer, my daughter performed an internship in Washington, D.C. dealing with nuclear nonproliferation for Pacific Northwest National Labs, a subcontrator for the Department of Energy. As such, she worked closely with the NNSA, and she had a high security clearance and daily read classified documents. While she could not tell me the specifics, she did strongly encourage me to have emergency supplies to last several weeks.

She was heavily involved in the "Russian/Putin" equation this summer; when I would try to explain the intricacies of the situation to others in my congregation, they were largely uninterested.

So, I do believe there will be growth simply because the organization has reached an adherent level with a certain amount of "critical mass."

Justitia

OnTheWayOut

The service year ends on August 31, not September 30.

And nothing like a nuclear incident happened during the last service year. The Iran/Iraq
stuff is generally a bore by now to most of the world. The JW numbers for the last service
year will not be driven by the war. If something big happens this current service year, they
might get many inactives or fence-sitting literature students to become activated. Perhaps,
a handful of teens got baptized thinking about Iraq vs. the draft, but generally, this isn't
a motivator.

Their outreach to inactive ones to just hand out flyers might have caused numbers to stay
positive this year, but I hope not.

It is over by now. I frame this question- Is it possible that this is another reason to publish
a "members only" magazine? Could they know numbers will go negative and don't want to put that
in the public magazine? We will hear and post it anyway from active JW's in our ranks.

Expect JW's to actually grow over the next few years

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