2007 Service year report, re-thunk..

by oneairhead 7 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  oneairhead

  I received my KM yesterday and was studying the numbers since it has been such a hot topic on here for several weeks.

  Here is my take. Many lands have say 5 - 40 publishers and if say 2 - 6 leave or are DA or DF'ed that land then they report a 15 - 25% decline in publishers.

  Conversely, if 2 - 6 publishers come to a land to live or are babtised then a 15 - 25% increase is reported.

  I believe the society takes all of the lands percentage of increase and averages them using the basic formula to give them the 3% increase claimed this year.

  If those lands, where there are only minimal publishers present, are removed from the formula wouldn't it give a more accurate picture of the total percentage of increase or decrease within the majority?

  You could even give them their own little line and average them in that way. I believe those smaller country's percentage of increase skew the majority.

  Has anyone worked this out? I don't have it here with me at work or I would do it myself.

  One
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  stillajwexelder

  No - the only true way is to take last years total average and this years and do the increase that way and it comes out at circa 3%
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  oneairhead

  Ok, well your picture is cute and i am sucker for a pretty face so I'll say you are probably right. They must be very progressive where you come from to have a woman as an elder.

  One
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  Gopher

  The worldwide percentage increase is based on the total publisher count from all lands. The individual percentages for each land are not factored in.
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  skeeter1

  Were hard numbers given in it? Did I miss a thread? What's the announcement say exactly?
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  WTWizard

  Those countries with few publishers have very little weight in determining the totals. Those with more pubs have more weight.

  Here's why. If you have 10 pubs and add 5, you have a 50% increase in that country. If you have a million and add the same 5 there, it is puny. So, the percentages per country mean little toward determining the total. It is the percent increase of the total that means anything. And, unfortunately, they did have about a 3% increase in the total from last year to this year.

  Of course, that doesn't mean it's a solid 3% increase. Fake time, dummy service, time wasted on coffee breaks and errands and slow egress, and those 15 minute publishers that in the past would not have been counted inflate the numbers. Also, they are coercing people to get baptized at ever young ages, and fast-tracking new recruits into becoming unbaptized publishers with easy crapt drives. And, eventually, it is all going to be exposed.

  Look at Enron. Its 2000 growth stats meant nothing after they were exposed in early 2002. Now, just try cashing in Enron stock at anywhere near the 1999/2000 price. Hopefully the Watchtower Society will have the same fate.
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  Gordy

  Here in Britain we had a 3% increase, over 2006. Of course the JW's are smug about it.

  They had, in round figures, an average of 125,000 and a peak of 131,000.

  But when I started my journey out in 1996 they had an average of 126,000 and peak of 132,000.

  So during the past 11 years, during which numbers fluctuated, they are still quite not back to what they were 11 years ago.

  Its like having a congregation of 100, which over the years loses and gains members but ends up with 99 members and claims and increase.
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  funkyderek

  They don't do that with the percentages. A 50% increase in the Pitcairn Islands and a 2% increase in the USA doesn't average out as a 26% increase and I don't think they even try that one. Where they do seem to fudge the numbers is with the "peak publishers". This number can be considerably higher than the average, and the worldwide peak publishers figure is taken by adding the figure from all the countries together. The problem with this is that there's no reason to believe each country's peak was in the same month. A country experiencing a decrease might have its peak in January while one experiencing an increase might have it in December, or other seasonal variations might apply. If someone moves from one country to another during the year, they may be counted twice. It's a virtual certainty that whatever figure is given for peak number of publishers worldwide, at no time were there actually that many publishers. (And that's assuming the initial figures are accurate. As we all know, there's a lot of stretching the truth on an individual and a congregation level.)