The need for 'Deliverance at Hand' in 2006

by jonathan adabe 8 Replies latest watchtower scandals

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  jonathan adabe

  What goes on behind the doors of the Governing Body is never published, but it can be surmised that recent years' Service Reports (which show a disturbing falling off of levels of increase), warrant a special push on getting new members. With the experience of the 1975 fiasco, the Governing Body must know that creating a fear of an early Armageddon would bring in more members, and the Deliverance at Hand Assemblies did just that, with quite good increases in membership during the 2007 Service Year at 3.1% of active members. The following data comparison probably identifies a cause for concern for the Governing Body :-

  1990 to 1996 (7 years) Increase in active publishers 1,542,613; baptisms 2,219,357; loss 676,744.

  2000 to 2006 (7 years) Increase in active publishers 837,782; baptisms 1,835,026; loss 997,244.

  Net increase for the above periods were +5.15% reducing to +1.98% . A disturbing trend for the Society.

  I ask : Were the assemblies for 2006 'Deliverance at Hand', based on some inside knowledge of the imminence of Armageddon or were they just targeting new members?
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  daniel-p

  I wonder what the 2000-2006 numbers would look like without the artifical influx after 9/11? If it weren't for that most unfortunate event, growth might have been only 1%. I think they'll instate some new hysteria of imminent Armageddon, like they did with 1975. What have they got to lose? There are fewer people who would leave due to them prophesying than would get all fired up. People like to get excited and fired up, even if they know in their heart of hearts that it won't happen. Lots of people choose to live in delusions.
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  The Scotsman

  Thanks for the stats.

  Quite an eye opener. What are the chances of these stats being in a WT article?? Not likely. LOL.

  If this trend continues they will be having real problems in the next few years.

  Plus, the internet must be a factor in the number of those leaving - learning the truth about the truth.

  The scotsman
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  WTWizard

  I hope this is the year the balloon comes due for them. I would like to see those 6 year old children that are baptized all get disfellowshipped at age 7, or disassociating themselves, for apostasy. And dragging their parents right out with them, into something far more stimulating (like watching paint dry).
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  jonathan adabe

  For the British contributors to this Forum, the results for Britain's membership growth during the 7 years 2000 to 2006, show that there were 31969 newly baptized members, yet an increase of active publishers of only 689. That represents a falling away of 31280. It is no wonder that the Governing Body brought in their '1975 scare tactics' by pushing another early Armageddon at the 'Deliverance at Hand' assemblies in 2006.
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  sir82

  That represents a falling away of 31280.

  Some of those 31,280 stopped being a JW due to their own death!

  But of course that doesn't explain it all. The majority of those 31,280 stopped for other reasons.

  My own thought: The Society has seen their numbers tick up slightly over the past year, and that has coincided with their tougher, more conservative stance. No more university education, no more large gatherings, shun even close family members who are DF, etc.

  I suspect that rather than focus on a new date, they will see this modest uptick in growth as "Jah's blessing on their efforts", and will become even more hardline in the future.
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  jonathan adabe

  daniel-p raised the question about the effects of 9/11 on membership numbers. The previous results for the U.S.A. were for 2000 -0.38%, 2001 +0.46%, then 2002 +2.86%. There is no doubt that the 9/11 tragedy was featured in the Society's alarmist preaching in the months following that event. Many people can be scared into thinking 'the end is nigh!'
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  still_in74

  1990 to 1996 (7 years) Increase in active publishers 1,542,613; baptisms 2,219,357; loss 676,744.

  2000 to 2006 (7 years) Increase in active publishers 837,782; baptisms 1,835,026; loss 997,244.

  so 90-96 for every 3.2 ppl baptized 1 left.

  for 2000-2006 for every 1.8 ppl baptized 1 left

  2007 to 2014 - for every 0.792 ppl baptized 1 will leave? so a loss of over 200,000???
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  jonathan adabe

  Quote:-

  so 90-96 for every 3.2 ppl baptized 1 left.

  for 2000-2006 for every 1.8 ppl baptized 1 left

  2007 to 2014 - for every 0.792 ppl baptized 1 will leave? so a loss of over 200,000??? (End Quote)

  I believe this to be the trend, in spite of the increases in 2007. For your info, the 12 years to 2007 in Canada there were 30,662 new baptisms, all active at the doors, yet there was a net loss/reduction of active workers of -194. That means that 30,662 went into the Organisation, and 30,856 others went out. Not a very good result for the 230 million hours spent achieving that loss!