A thesis was dropped on my desk yesterday by a Spanish writer, Navarro-Genie, detailing aspects of the life of Augusto Sandino. Sandino was a revolutionary looney who preached another Biblical prophetic 'end-times' message, specifically directing his ire, as usual at the Great Satan, the USA. He was of course a lunatic, but his strange logic led to a political uprising and much bloodshed in the late 1920's.
This quotation from the thesis rather reminded me of someone else.
So how do individuals react in the face of unfulfilled prophecies or, as it is called, disconfirmation? There are three possible responses. An individual may choose to leave the group in the face of disconfirmation. Second, he may resume proselytising with greater intensity than before. Finally, he may resort to reinterpreting the purposes and doctrines of the movement.
No, don't tell me....his name is on the tip of my tongue.....
He gibbers and blusters, in prophetic clusters, he drools the Millennium away…..
In a famous book written by Dr. Leon Festinger called When Prophecy Fails, the issue of people facing a disconfirmation of their beliefs is dealt with. Festinger theorized that a group of people whose beliefs run up against radical and stark disconfirmation will instead of giving up those beliefs, generally become more aggressive in trying to convert other people to what they believe.”
So how do individuals react in the face of unfulfilled prophecies or, as it is called, disconfirmation? There are three possible responses. An individual may choose to leave the group in the face of disconfirmation. Second, he may resume proselytising with greater intensity than before. Finally, he may resort to reinterpreting the purposes and doctrines of the movement.
You may be interested in finding the Carl Sagan quote that the above words where no doubt taken from (almost verbatim, btw). Guess who Carl was discussing?
You may be interested in finding the Carl Sagan quote that the above words where no doubt taken from (almost verbatim, btw). Guess who Carl was discussing?
Yes, I thought a little student plaigerism was alive and well, having read Sagan's book myself.
'Every time I write a song its been heard before..'
