Berean,
Interesting post and possible scenarios ... I think that some items you list, however, are not probable:
Here are possible reasons that "tithing" is likely on the way for the "faithful":
One of the corner stones of Watchtower theology is not to tithe, as this is considered something that Christendom does as part of her unfaithful activities - in truth, most churches do not require tithing - so, the Society would have to very carefully introduce such a concept over many years in order to get by with it ... if they ever try it.
1) The WBTS was built by distributing the printed page The demand of bound books and magazines is no longer a major player in our world. Result: Cash flow has been reduced for the WBTS.
No, I disagree. While literature sales helped, they make money many other ways ... there are a large number of wealthy JWs who have contributed millions of dollars each ... and the Society has stock and real estate holdings all over the world. The Hotel at Paterson, NY is a for profit operation. They have made substantial money on Kingdom hall loans, refinancing Kingdom halls, and they have not been taxed ... then they are able to hide funds in foreign countries - Switzerland being the most obvious.
Secondly, the Society has always required JWs to pay in advance for literature ... that alone is their marketing secret, a built-in retail outlet from loyal members. The late 1980s change from voluntary donations from for literature was only changed to donations to the 'worldwide preaching work.' Otherwise, financially and functionally, little has changed. They now charge more for literature. JWs may be ordering less literature, and as a result, there is less demand. This has resulted in the Society selling off some assets that are no longer needed. However, they have more than enough invested and saved to carry them through many decades to come. With over 7 million JWs, they will survive without having to impose a tithe.
2) Door-to-door sales has become the least effective way to reach the public. Result: less and less direct marketing is occurring ... limiting potential new membership and contributions.
Door-to-door was always ineffective ... and the Watchtower Society knows it ... even the most brain dead JW who goes out in Service once a month can see that ... for the Catholic Church grows far faster each year and they do it by several other means. There are about 1.2 million JWs in the USA, which took over 120 years to achieve ... the Catholic Church grows by 1.5 million each year just in the USA. The marketing has less to do with the public and far more to do with getting JWs to buy literature to use in Service. My wife and I used to order 30 of each magazine issue ... 10 for each of us, plus 6 for study copies (2 parents and 4 children) and 4 extras for the kids to use at the doors ... this amounts to 120 total magazines a month ... and we placed maybe 20 to 40 total per month, leaving about 80 magazines to store in our garage until they rotted ... the Society knows good and damn well this is what goes on ... and has gone on ... and they don't care. The point of sale for the Society is the JW at the Kingdom Hall.
3) The cost of transportation has never been higher per mile. Result: The more money used to travel in the ministry, the less time available for the contribution box.
In relative terms, the cost of transportation is about the same as always ... gasoline per gallon has historically been about 1/100,000 of the price of an average home. In the 1950s, when houses were about $9,000 a gallon was about 9 cents ... in 2009, a gallon is about $2.90 and the average home is about $290,000. It fluctuates back and forth, so these averages are not always constant ... but they come back in line more often than not ... likewise for the relationship of prices to wages. The heavy recession in late 2008 to early 2009 is among the exceptions.
4) Russell's plan was launched in lands where the standard of living was higher such as the good old USA. Today's growth in the organization is coming from poor third world countries. Result: A greater number of members have little which to give and are actually costing the WBTS to provide services for these needy.
The JWs in wealthier lands are still giving money ... when I started as a JW, our congregations never sent in extra contributions ... not until the 1980s did we vote each month to send in money as a congregation ... USA congregations in particular send in a lot of support in addition to buying literature.
5) The modern Witness now realizes that they will likely live out their "golden years" in this system of things. 1975 didn't end it all ... this generation did pass away ... more of the anointed keep popping up ... Result: the friends are holding back some of their assets to finance tomorrow.
Maybe ... its hard to say. 1975 has pretty much passed by the current generation of JWs ... so the effects of its failure have gone about as far as it can go ... just like the 1914 failure ... so the current generation of JWs just do not think about 1975 ... they leave or remain for different reasons now.
6) Many JWs have chosen not to have children. Result: Growth inevitably comes from within. Consider the fate of the Shakers.
JWs go through this periodically ... then they Society will encourage children, and so on ... my guess is that they have a large enough membership that they will grow from within more than with new converts ... whether this sustains them into the future remains to be seen ... but to sustain a culture, the growth rate must be at least 2.4% or higher. Most western cultures are below that number ... whereas Muslims are over 4% ... JWs typically have hung around 3% or better ... but if they dip below 2.4%, then they will have issues.
In summary, Though Russell has had a good run, he built a business model that was temporary. It required a carrot on a stick at all times. There is little new under the sun at the WBTS. The new proto-type for the organization will require an obligation for all members to financially support the slave's quarters or it itself will become the ultimate "fader."
It could be ... but the WTS leaders are a crafty bunch ... and they may learn to adopt the Internet as the cheap way to send out literature ... and then have JWs copy it to various email addresses, or print it to use in Service ... and thus costs go down, and access and marketing increases.
