Why the drop since the 50's - 70's

by dozy 8 Replies latest jw friends

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  dozy

  Reading Besty’s experience about his parents coming “into the truth” in the 50’s and another poster who looked at the huge drop in Italian baptisms since the 70’s http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/jw/friends/179985/1/Italy-conventions-baptisms-stats prompts me to ask:

  Why is there such a huge drop in JW converts in western lands since the 50’s – 70’s? Obviously 1975 was a factor for the surge , but that only really was promoted after 1966.

  I ask as the few individuals who have been baptized in recent years have either been immigrants or child born-ins. Yet back in the past , young couples and families , often quite happy people with secure jobs & good educations were being baptized. What has changed?
• 

  sir82

  I was just thinking about this.

  The JW "business model", for lack of a better term, has always been "keep busy now, because Armageddon is coming no later than XYZ date."

  Sometimes "XYZ" is a hard date, like 1914, 1918, 1925, 1975, etc. Sometimes it is a soft date, like "the generation of 1914 will not all die out."

  But since 1995, there has been neither a hard nor a soft end date. And since 2007, when they droppped the 1935 date for the "heavenly calling", it seems the end has been pushed back indefinitely.

  Sure, they still say the end is "close", "near", "imminent", "right around the corner", etc., but those are hollow words without even a soft date as an outer limit. After 130 years, the word "soon" begins to lose its impact.

  What happens at work when the deadline for a project is pushed back or even removed? The project just withers. It's human nature.

  For 15 years there has been no outer limit for Armageddon's start. People are relaxing and not putting in the effort they used to. The urgency is not there in the field ministry and Bible studies. The only people the message appeals to any more are 3rd-world immigrants attracted to the message of hope - for them, even a distant dream of a better life is better than what they have experienced.

  The Watchtower dropped its "business plan" but somehow forgot to replace it with a new one.
• 

  Farkel

  :Why is there such a huge drop in JW converts in western lands since the 50’s – 70’s?

  I've seen a lot of data regarding this. One of the opinions is that all off-beat religions/cults reach a critical mass of members after a period of time and growth beyond that mass become stagnant. Obviously, there are other possible factors:

  More information available

  Better educated people

  Apathy

  Increase in secularism in Western Cultures (Europe is a vastly Secular Continent now.)

  There aren't many suckers left out there for the WTS to convert.

  Lack of crises available for cults to capitalize on. The old world just keeps on spinning and despite all the rants about it being doomed, humankind is better off today that it has ever been in all of recorded history.

  The JW message is stale and predictable.

  The only people who give a shit about JWs are JWs.

  Farkel
• 

  jonathan dough

  Internet pulled their pants down.

  JD II
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  Quandry

  I heard at a Convention quite a few years ago that about 60,000 people are df'd each year. If only half return to the organization, my goodness, there are alot of former JWs out there. Evidently most people must keep the information to themselves. You'd think we'd be tripping over former JWs.

  Add to this all the ones who are smarter than I was and look into the history of the organization just leave and aren't heard from again.

  It's no wonder the increase is sooooo low, even though the end is sooooooooooooo close!
• 

  nelly136

  i think probably the offspring help perpetuate the numbers and baptised more than converts, and born in kids are moer likely to stay in due to family pressure

  from recollection as a dub.......

  we had quite a few at the kh that put off getting married or remained childless after marriage (the AA brigade). after armagonnagettum didnt, for many it was too late, and most of them held on in case it came the next year...or the next, some of them eventually gave in and married but the biological clock was too far advanced. (and some only joined the club to save face cos there wasnt anyone that would marry them anyways....oops i digress) they were knockin on or dying off when i was a dub

  although they were outnumbered by the breeders, it must have still left a bit of a gap in the long term growth, many of them would be great grandparents and grandparents by now and there'd have been a whole lot more family tree bums on seats today if they'd bred.

  converts....the jws could convert a mum or a dad or possibly both and the 'new kids' would be a bonus.....they usually hotfooted out of dodge as soon as they were old enough.so any growth from them was usually temporary.
• 

  Quandry

  although they were outnumbered by the breeders,

  Okay, so I didn't see this post of yours, Nelly, seven days ago. It is soooo hilarious, I am just glad I wasn't drinking anything when I read it.

  You have a way with words!!!
• 

  Goshawk

  off topic and withdrawn
• 

  steve2

  1.The second generation of believers (i.e., those raised in a religion) are almost always less committed to it than those who were converted to the religion as adults.

  2. There is only so much "life" in any end-times religious movement before it starts to decline and/or head towards the mainstream. People can only hang on for so long for the end to happen before they wilt. JWs heyday in Western countries was definitely the first half of the 1970s; the carrot of 1975 failed to arrive. That kind of rapid growth rate among the JWs will never happen again in those countries. Never.

  3. A far more deadly enemy of growth among the JWs in Western lands is improving levels of education among the general population. To succeed as a JW you need a dull mind or an ability to distract yourself from absurd beliefs. Sadly, education gets in the way of this happening. There is nothing more annoying that doing one's best to believe absurd idoctrines and to hear one's active brain cells shouting back at you, "This is absolute and utter crap". This also explains why growth among the JWs is currently greatest in countries where education levels are lowest.

  The logic is compelling: Education levels high = active brain cells = ability to detect and reject absurd doctrines; education levels low = dull brain cells = susceptibility to believing the dear old tooth fairy.