I was wondering it's been approximately 90 years since this talk was given so how many people who heard it could relaistically be alive now?
The country with the greatest life expectation is Japan and there the average life expectation is 82. The country with the worst record is Mozambique with an average life expectancy of 43.
In developing countries 16% of the population is over 65 whereas only 6% of people in developing countries meet this criteria. Only 7% of the worlds population is over 65.
So if the worlds population is 6.6 billion does it mean 463 million are over 65. However if the best average life expectancy is 82 then the proportion of the 463 million that are 90 and over must be incredbly small. If it were 2% then 9 million people could be old enough to fit the age catergory. If only 1% then it falls to 4.5 million.
In 2000 people who were 95 or over in US were reported to number 337,238, people who were 90 to 94 were 1,112,531 1% of the population. 4.2% of population were over 90. So even in the US there are not enough people of the right age to meet the millions claim.
Also it is worth considering how far the word had spread back in the 1920's, preaching was not worldwide so the US figures are more indicative of the answer. Also how many people actually heard the talk? It wasn't everyone who was alive at the time it was only those who had listened to the talk and responded. So it was never millions even back then at it's peak.
So there are people who could have been very small babies at the time the talk was given and still be alive today, However anyone who was an adult i.e. 20 or over is most likely to be toast by now. The title of the talk is often quoted as a clarion call of hope but it was a lie when it was spouted and a bigger lie today. There are approximately 7 million witnesses worldwide there can only be at most 70,000 who fit the criteria and that is being incredibly generous with the maths. Millions now living died without having their hopes relaised and millions living today are making the same mistake.