I knew this was going to happen ... I was at a gathering the other night and sure enough! A very devout jw started gushing on about how we can be so thankful that armageddon hasn't happened yet, because now more people will be saved!
| ?"Jehovah is not slow respecting his promise, as some people consider slowness, but he is patient with YOU because he does not desire any to be destroyed but desires all to attain to repentance."? 2 Peter 3:9 |
Of course math not being my favorite subject ... I stammered away about the population explosion, birth rate, death rate , conversion rate ... well I sort of got the point across that in fact the delay just makes more people for god to kill! But I really had to wrack my brain...whew!
So here are the statistics from JWfacts to show this ... but is there someone who has a quicker & easier to remember answer for the statement, that delaying armageddon will save more lives?
Your help will be most appreciated ... remember to put the explanation in 'apples & oranges'! lol
clarity
"The Watchtower explains the Last Days have continued so long as Jehovah ?desires all to attain to repentance.? If only active Jehovah?s Witnesses will be saved then this Scripture does not make sense. On average, over 200,000 people are born everyday, but the number of active Jehovah'?s Witnesses increases by only 224 (2005 daily increase in average publishers). Each day that Armageddon delays requires Jehovah to destroy an extra 200,000 people.
It has been stated that Jehovah is speeding up the growth of the Watchtower Society, with predictions that the momentum would continue.
- ?JEHOVAH is now speeding up the ingathering of sheeplike ones. Surely, then, this is no time for his people to slow down in their Kingdom-preaching and disciple-making work. (Isaiah 60:8, 22; Matthew 24:14; 28:19, 20) ? Indeed, increased witnessing activity by so many more publishers and pioneers is now stirring up the world field. And the momentum of this joyous ingathering will yet grow.?Isaiah 60:11? Watchtower 1988 July 15 p.15
Statistics show this no longer holds true. It will take major policy change for the Watchtower Society to have a hope of turning this trend around and start growing at any significant rate.
Notes on how Statistics derived
The following statistical information has been used in the estimation of some figures above:
Number disfellowshipped annually - 1.00%
This is based on Watchtower 1992 July 1 p.19 "In recent years disfellowshippings worldwide have been approximately 1 percent of publishers." Watchtower 1986 January 1 p.13 stated, ?It is to be noted, also, that during the past year, 36,638 individuals had to be disfellowshipped from the Christian congregation? In 1985 average publishers were 2,865,183, so 36,638 represented 1.28%.
Watchtower 1987 September 15 p.13 ?Unfortunately, during the 1986 service year, 37,426 had to be disfellowshipped from the Christian congregation?? Of the 3,063,289 publishers this represented 1.22%
Number reinstated - 0.33%
I have used an average figure of 1/3 of the number disfellowshipped subsequently being reinstated. This is based on the following comments.
Watchtower 1974 August 1 p. 466 ?36,671 persons had to be disfellowshiped for various kinds of serious wrongdoing. Yet, in that same period 14,508 persons were reinstated?? This equates to 39.6% being reinstated.
Watchtower 1960 December 1 p.728 ?During the service year of 1958-1959 there were 6,552 individuals disfellowshiped by the New World society of Jehovah?s witnesses for various reasons ... and there were 1,597 ... Reinstated?? This equates to only 24%.
Number died
The CIA World Fact Book has been used for calculations that include the global population death rate, with http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=2 providing the rate averaged over 5 year periods. Where indicated, the above statistics take into account the number of Witnesses that die each year, so as not to over inflate the numbers leaving.
Average versus Peak Publishers
I have used average publishers rather than peak publishers. Peak publishers is an inaccurate figure due to how the Watchtower Society collects this data. For example, if a publisher forgets to report in January and lodges their January and February reports at the end of February, the January report is not adjusted. Both reports are added to February, creating an artificial spike. Using average publishers helps even out this error.
Footnotes:
1 "An even more extreme example of what might be called "masked churn" is the relatively tiny Jehovah's Witnesses, with a turnover rate of about two-thirds. That means that two-thirds of the people who told Pew they were raised Jehovah's Witnesses no longer are - yet the group attracts roughly the same number of converts." America's Unfaithful Faithful David Van Biema (http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20080225/us_time/americasunfaithfulfaithful February 25 2008)
"Jehovah's Witnesses have the lowest retention rate of any religious tradition. Only 37% of all those who say they were raised as Jehovah's Witnesses still identify themselves as Jehovah's Witnesses." (http://religions.pewforum.org/reports As at March 8 2008)
"Jehovah's Witnesses are most "mobile." Accounting for less than 1 percent of American adults, one-third of their members leave the group, and two-fifths join from another religion." Currents Shaping Our World: Switched after Birth (http://www.ctlibrary.com/le/2003/summer/19.7.html July 1, 2003)