You watch a certain channel and on it there's a weatherman who tells you that it there's a big storm coming. His Doppler Radar system is giving him the information and the BIG STORM is coming on SUCH an SUCH day.
You prepare and make sure things are in order so you can survive it. That day comes....but the BIG STORM does not. You're a bit disappointed and confused at first, but you like the weatherman's personality and decide "nobody's perfect" and stick with him. The same weatherman predicts another BIG STORM with information from his trusty Doppler Radar system (and that never lies). You prepare again. Its easier this time since you were so prepared last time. That day comes...but the BIG STORM does not.
Will you continue to trust this weatherman to predict the storm? And if so, how many times will it take for him to get it WRONG before you decide to get information elsewhere for yourself?