False Prophecy Psychology

by Ding 6 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • Ding
    Ding

    When someone predicts a specific date for some "end times" event (Armageddon, new system, rapture, etc.) and the prediction fails, why can't they just say, "I was wrong? I made a fool of myself," and go away?

    Why do they always seem to come up with some explanation such as an invisible happening or an additional harvest or testing period, and then come out with a whole new set of calculations and announce a new date?

    Why does anyone give them a moment's serious consideration?

    In my case, when I first started studying with the WTS shortly before 1975, I had no idea that the organization had a long history of failed predictions and long-since discarded explanations. I had never heard of any of the Adventist date speculations of the early 1800s that led to Russell's acceptance of the idea of an "invisible presence" of Jesus. I had never heard of all his "confirming" pyramid measurements.

    When the JWs who came to my door showed me the "time, times, and half a time" language from Daniel 7 and 12 and Revelation 12, I had never seen that phrase before. When they pointed it out and had an explanation that it was 3 1/2 "times" and tied it all in to 1914 and the outbreak of World War I, it all seemed to be evidence of great Bible understanding and scholarship. It was exciting to receive "hidden" prophetic "understanding" that only a relatively small number of people possessed. When friends told me it was all nonsense, I concluded that they weren't taking prophecy seriously enough.

    It was difficult for me later to face how ignorant and gullible I had been.

    While some of these "prophets" know they are pulling a scam, I think a lot of them really believe their own predictions. They really believe they have figured out the key to predicting the future. I think Fred Franz, for example, really believed that the expected new system would begin in 1975 or 1976 at the latest. When their predictions fail, they can't admit to themselves that they have spent years adding unrelated numbers onto irrevelant or erroneous historical dates. They conclude that that something significant must have happened on their prophesied date, just not what they expected.

    Instead of saying, "I was wrong. I made a fool of myself," and going away, they redouble their efforts and start crunching another set of meaningless numbers and announce another date. They and their followers admit that they had mistaken expectations, but they continue to pride themselves in their zeal for the Lord's return.

  • wobble
    wobble

    It is a strange phenomenon the whole thing, if you happen to be a bit rational in your thinking. You are dead right, you would think after the humiliation of obvious gross error, they would shut up, at least for a while, but they don't , they come right back in with more garbage.

    As Festinger noted, even stranger is the fact that the followers of these clowns are able to justify the cock-up to themselves, and seem even stronger in their support for the false prophet.

    Old Yorkshire saying "There's nowt so queer as folk"

  • Doug Mason
    Doug Mason

    Ding,

    Have you ever sat back and contemplated John Lennon's dream: "Imagine what the world would be like if there was no religion"?

    Doug

  • 00DAD
    00DAD

    Ding: It was difficult for me later to face how ignorant and gullible I had been.

    I agree, that is a humbling admission to make to one's self. I go back and forth between being mad at myself and laughing at myself. If someone else did either of those things to me I'd likely pop 'em one!

  • Ding
    Ding

    Doug,

    I'm not anti-religion, but when someone tells me they alone speak for God or that they have the end times dates all figured out, I take a pass.

  • compound complex
    compound complex

    When people are faced with evidence for and against their beliefs, they will be more likely to accept the evidence that supports their beliefs with little scrutiny yet criticize and reject that which disconfirms their beliefs.

    Generally, we will avoid or discount evidence that might show us to be wrong.

    http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/disconfirmation_bias.htm

  • transhuman68
    transhuman68

    Who knows? I think maybe these people have some sort of compulsive-obsessive disorder, where studying and counting keeps them from jumping off a bridge. Plus they are personally dishonest: never fully believing their own predictions, and never accepting completely that they were wrong and have led other people to their ruin. Somehow, these 'prophets' never seem to suffer financially from their mistakes as much as their followers do- as if they are aware that it is just a crazy stunt. Personally, I think Fred Franz knew all along that 1975 was not going to work- but he wanted to copy Rutherford's 1925 prediction. I've listened to Fred Franz's 1975 talk- and it just doesn't ring true somehow.

    Just my $0.02.

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