Record cost for global disasters - "last days?"

by jwfacts 6 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  jwfacts

  There was an newspaper article this morning quoting the UN as stating that in 2011 disasters cost $355 Billion, a new record. I am sure the Watchtower will jump on this for their next issues as proof that we are in the last days and the end must be soon. No doubt there will be the following quote:

  "economic costs are increasing more than ever before, said Margareta Wahlstrom, the UN special envoy on disaster risk reduction."

  What they will be unlikely to quote will be the beginning of the sentence, which was, " While countries are managing to control the disaster death toll, economic costs are increasing more than ever before..." Further into the article it states:

  "Globally, the disaster mortalities are proportionally declining because countries are getting much better at early warning systems and preparedness," she said. "But the economics of disasters is becoming a major threat to a number of countries."

  The reason the cost of disasters is increasing (apart from population growth and inflation) is that the human standard of living has increased dramatically over the last century. Whereas 100 years ago a family would lose a basic wooden house, they now lose cars, electronic goods such as computers and tv's, and whitegoods, all which are part of making lives easier than ever before. So any idea that increasing disaster costs are an indication of the last days and the world's end are far from the truth, and rather show that we are in the best of all times.
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  Disillusioned Lost-Lamb

  Wash-towel spin-doctors will have a hay-day with information like this but neglect to mention:

  1-More population means more casualties and death.

  2-More population also means more expense.

  3-Better record keeping means we now have superior ways of documenting, reviewing and keeping track of data to calculate actual cost, increases, etc.

  4-Better record keeping also means we do not have any complete ancient documentation to compare for analysis.
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  transhuman68

  Good points, jwfacts. No doubt this newspaper quote will appear in a future Asleep! magazine. Though I am starting to think that in a million years we may have evolved to have webbed feet!
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  jwfacts

  1-More population means more casualties and death.

  2-More population also means more expense.

  3-Better record keeping means we now have superior ways of documenting, reviewing and keeping track of data to calculate actual cost, increases, etc.

  4-Better record keeping also means we do not have any complete ancient documentation to compare for analysis.

  All great points.

  While the population continues to grow we can expect more people affected each year. It is handy for doomsday cults, but not good logic when looking forward in time rather than backwards. Since we know the population will grow in the next 100 years, we know that the signs of the last days will get worse, and so that undermines the present time as being special.
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  mP

  practically every few years there are increases.'whoever heard of prices going down?

  look at the bible for thirty coins some guy betrayed his mentor friend, so they could capture and kill him. whats thirty pieces a few dollars ? about two hundred years a few thousand pounds would literally buy you an entire grand castle. after ww2 a few billion in the marsall program helped entire cfountries rebuild. you cant even build a stadium foir one billion today.
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  slimboyfat

  It's a pity for them the end-time prophecy doesn't mention floods and climate change, only earthquakes.

  Scientists indicate earthquakes are not on the increase, while they also state that climate change is one of the biggest threats facing mankind. Makes you wonder how Jesus missed that when predicting the end of the system of things.
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  WTWizard

  Now, I suggest counting the cost for global disasters in ounces of gold. If you count it in toilet papers, of course as the dollar approaches toilet paper value, you are going to get record costs. Example: Suppose we get 30 digit daily inflation. Last year, we had Tokyo hit with a volcano, New York City was hit with a Category 5 hurricane, Chicago got a F9 tornado, a magnitude 10 earthquake hit each of Los Angeles, Lagos, Mexico City, Singapore, and Hong Kong (with tsunamis), Brasilia was hit with heat in the mid 50s (Celcius), and there was a major drought through the whole of the middle of Russia along with flooding in the Plains. This year, nothing--except the erosion of the dollar, but toward the end of the year, a small brush fire--the only "disaster". In dollars, the brush fire was more expensive because the dollar lost 10,000 orders of magnitude of purchasing power.

  However, in the above example, last year was far more costly despite the lower nominal cost. In ounces of gold, you would have seen vast damage last year. The small brush fire only cost less than 1/10 ounce of gold to put out (probably more like 1/100 ounce), not close to a billion like last year. I bet you never see anything like that in your rags from the Washtowel.