by taoInitiate 8 Replies latest social current
Hi
Just wondering if anyone has current figures on the number of Disfellowshipings, Disassociations, and Walk-aways that are occuring from JW's. I've heard a lot of older figures, but I was wondering if there was a source for more recent data.
thanks for any help here...
taoInit
Somewhere on Randy's site is a place where the figures from last years's 'official' tally.
df'ing I have heard is about, worldwide, 40,000 per year, with around 20,000 per years reinstatments---. Estimates are about 1% JW's die per year. (Unofficial)
At any given time, about 1/4 to 1/3 of an average U.S. congregation is irregular/inactive.
In at least two countries, it appears Watchtower counts irregular/inactives and even sometimes df'd/da'd that are meeting attenders as members.
In the past, publisher cards were to be destroyed if the publisher was AWOL for five years or more. According to a recent 'BOE' letter published on this board, these cards are now to be kept indefinitely. To all appearances Watchtower plans on expanding their counting irregulars/inactives/df'd and da's as members.
But my favorite part of all is the fact that in spite of propaganda that the 'anointed' are decreasing, they are either staying the same or increasing, partakers anyway---in spite of the fact that, if the percentages hold, they must be losing 50-80 PER YEAR in death, and we know for a fact that partakers are df'd or da'd all the time.
Hee Hee !!!
Thanks for that db
Is the "tally" a regular thing that is updated every year? And do you know if and where there is a history kept of this increasing figure?
taoInit
G'day taolnitiate,
Try this site: http://www.jwic.com/stat.htm
Statistics given are for 2001 Service Year. Unfortunately it hasn't been updated for 2002.
Cheers,
Ozzie
In 1969 the JWs worldwide were about 1,156,802 (based on reverse amortization). ... In 2002 the JWs worldwide are about 6,093,207 (based on forward amortization). This represents about a 5.05% average growth over the last 33 years.
Had no one died or been DF’d/DA’d in the last 33 years, the growth rate would have been closer to an average of 7.05% resulting in a population of JWs around the world of 11,767,623.
The “natural” death rate (excluding wars or sever abject conditions) has held to about 1% worldwide for the last 100+ years (used in industry actuarial tables). The DF/DA rate has also held at about 1% during the last 33+ years. However, the net amount of 6,093,207 JWs I use already reflects these changes for loss due to death and DF/DA and any reinstatements. Therefore:
The baptism rate has averaged about 6.6% during most of the last 33 years, some years higher and some lower, especially in recent years. The "Delta change" between baptisms of 6.6% and the net gain of 5.05% average growth, means that there was a loss of 1.55% per year average due to people walking away, (not including those remaining DF’d or DA’d thus, not seeking reinstatement). This means that over a 33 year period, from 1969 to 2002, approximately 1,775,106 have left the organization and are still alive, but were not DF or DA.
These numbers are based on average percentages, average baptisms, and average publishers I have noted from JW yearbooks, etc. and using these to recalculate annual averages and amortizations. Were someone to go back and add together all the “actual baptisms” and then subtract the net number of "actual" JWs on hand today, and factor in the death rate for those baptized, they may have a slightly to moderately different result.
Thanks guys...
That's a good site, ozzie.
And thanks for your comments Amazing and db.
That'll give me something to "go on with", so to speak.
taoInit
Ozzie,
Good to see that the anarchic Brits are finally kicking the WTBTS out of their lives.
Englishman.
Eman,
The Ozzies too! Mind you, I wouldn't describe the Orstrarlian as anarchic; maybe just a larrikin! Doesn't take too kindly to being told what to do.
A coupla years back the Service Department overseer at the Bethel here complained to me that they couldn't get the Australian elders to follow instructions, nor to do what they were told! LOL
Cheers,
Ozzie
What poses problems for your calculations, Amazing, is the fact that we at times are talking about the "same people" entering and leaving; a person might be disfellowshipped, then reinstated, then desfelloeshipped again, or he becomes inactive, then is reactivated, then becomes inactive again etc. Added to that, it was some years ago stated that 25 % of the publishers then had not yet been baptized, and so perhaps a person with whom a Bible study was conducted, would be a publisher one month, then not, then again, then not etc. It is very difficult, I would dare to say close to impossible, to come up with more or less exact figures as to how many are leaving or have left.
On the other hand, I have also ended up with the 11-million figure which you too have come up with, so either the two of us are some really clever guys, or we are both on a too simplistic path ........
