You bet they're gambling...
...but not in a way that might have occurred to you, and what's more, I'm quite certain they know it's a gamble (or, at least, don't think it's as much of a gamble as it truly is).
It all centers on their continuing appeal of the Conti verdict.
Firstly...
If the GB caved now and paid up, they'd be percieved as conceding to an opponent of "Satan's World" far too close to the Big A, and likely suffer damaged pride and have their authority considerably undermined amongst the R&F; not at all appealling to them...
...however...
...if they keep appealling and beat the rap by attrition (i.e. using their vast financies and legal maneuvering to wear out Team Conti until they give up), they'll have demonstrated in a very public manner how difficult it will be for any future opponents to fight them.
That would be a significant victory for the WTS in the short term.
Secondly (and far more seriously)...
They are well aware that if they keep appealing this all the way up to the Supreme Court and ultimately lose, the proceedings will set a legal precedent that will - from what we've gathered - open the floodgates for further similar litigation all over the US, with the potential of permanently crippling the Organization - financially, ideologically, and in the court of public opinion...
...however...
...if they keep appealling all the way up to SCOTUS and WIN, that legal precedent could potentially immunize the WTS against any further pedophila-related litigation ever again.
And that would be a huge victory for the WTS in the long term.
It has the potential of demoralizing their opponents to a degree that shunning and apostate baiting could never hope to do, any further outside pressure to reform their policies would be set back at least a decade, and the hubris that God has their back would be cemented in place for both the GB and the R&F for generations to come.
And don't forget, a fundamental axiom of ultraconservative religious ideology is that people are inherently bad; the idea that the general public - "Satan's World" could truly reach a higher level of moral outrage than themselves (over institutionalized sexual abuse, or anything, really) would never occur to them in a million years.
Yes, the odds are against them and they know it, but from their point of view, it would be well worth the risk...
In effect, they have a weak poker hand, and are hoping to bluff themselves a win in a "winner take all" gambit.
