Statistical projection for Canada/2002

by RunningMan 7 Replies latest jw friends

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  RunningMan

  Well, we are nearing the half way point in the service year. Although it is still early, we may be able to get an initial projection of this year’s service results for Canada.

  Publishers for this year and last are as follows:

  Sep 106131 105056
  Oct 107971 108076
  Nov 107668 108499
  Dec 108331 106595
  Jan 108799 107097

  Avg 107780 107065 Increase of +0.7%

  At this early stage, it looks like a modest increase is in the works. However, if you realize that the counting threshold has dropped to 15 minutes per month, and the enforcement has improved by transferring this job to the book study conductor, then the results are not as good. It is entirely possible that this seeming increase (caused by counting technique changes) is actually masking a decrease. Consider the number of conversions:

  Baptisms (this year/last year):

  Sep 149 161
  Oct 103 157
  Nov 226 131
  Dec 81 132
  Jan 59 54

  Total 618 635 Decrease of 17

  Last year, baptisms hit a low of 2030. That was the lowest year since baptisms began being reported. Back in 1969, 3621 baptisms were reported, and that was based on a total publisher count of only 43265. Only a few short years ago, the baptism count was over 5000.

  In order to maintain their size, the organization needs to baptize at least 2500 per year (1400 for mortality, and 1100 for dissention).

  So, although the 2002 service year results may show a small increase, in reality, the indifference is continuing unchanged.
• 

  Amazing

  I think the new "15 minute" rule will help some in lowering the rate of 'inactive' and 'irregular' Publishers. What we as x-JWs should do, in order to monitor the Watchtower decrease or increase, is to then coorelate the average hours per Publisher to see what this decrease means in terms of productivity.

  The Book Study Conductor has always been responsible to collect time and monitor the Field Service of his group. So the fact that the Society once again emphasizes the BS Conductor tkae a more active role in collecting and monitoring time will have little impact. Most BS Conductors do not do well at this effort.

  The time is still turned into the Secretary for final count and reporting to the Society. If the BS Conductor had to turn in the time count directly to the Society, this might make some marginally noticable difference.

  When I was Secretary, I created a database for each BS Group and handed each BS Conductor a report every month so he could see how his group performed ... I did this in the 1980s. The CO loved it, but some Pubs and Elders did not like my level of detail on the PC, as this made them feel more like a Sales Organization ... which is what they are.

  These extra steps were somewhat helpful to the body of elders, but the real way that we were able to reduce 'inactives' and 'irregulars' were consistent shepherding visits, inviting 'weaker' JWs out in Service and work with them, and keeping the Congregation pumped up with monthly drives to have them Aux. Pioneer. Then those we could not help, we filed their Pub Card away, and eventually destroyed their Cards so that we did not have many who were inactive.
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  RunningMan

  I thought about calculating the number of 15 minute publishers by watching the change in average hours. However, their impact on hours is not statistically significant.

  I heard somewhere that tests of the 15 minute rule resulted in a 1.6% increase in publisher count (I can't remember the source). That's about 1 or 2 per congregation, which seems reasonable. A 1.6% increase in total publisher count, with virtually no corresponding increase in hours, results in lower hours per publisher of only 0.14 hours - a difference which is not even noticable, and cannot be distinguished from other fluctuations.

  On the point of the reports being collected by the BS conductor (I like that phrase), in my congregation, the secretary always used to collect them himself. At least once last year my bogus 4 hours got missed. That seems unlikely under the new regime. Even a tiny increase in reporting accuracy will impact these figures.

  The most accurate way to assess the impact of the changes is to wait until next year, and then compare equivalent year over year data.
• 

  og

  "BS Conductor", "BS Study" - LOL
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  meat pie

  Can anyone please tell me if the 15 minute rule applies to the UK?
• 

  expatbrit

  Here's a couple of graphs I maintain on Canada:

  Firstly, the twelve-month moving total of baptisms:

  Secondly, monthly publishers (red) with the annual moving average (blue). While taking the five months to January and comparing with last year gives a 0.7% increase, the moving 12-month average to January shows an increase of 0.3%. Either way, nothing for the ass-wipes in Brooklyn to be happy at.

  Expatbrit
• 

  new boy

  THEY are truly fufilling bible prophecy "the love of the greater number will cool off or a die? get Dfed, get DAed, or just fade away"

  The earth has had it with archaic religions!
• 

  sunscapes

  1100 for dissention? If more find their way here, you could probably triple that.

  15 minutes...the time it takes to get your double double and apple fritter at Tim (field service break) Horton's.

  15 minutes...to wolf them down while gabbing

  15 minutes...to get back in the car after every1 goes potty break

  15 minutes...to get more money out of the ATM

  15 minutes...to get gas

  15 minutes...to go back to Timmy's cause someone forgot to go potty

  Well, there you go...cleared an hour and a half!