Psychdigg: Your post below complains about Bill Bownen using fake numbers and false predictions. You then only discuss some generalized numbers in an unspecific way.
Law of Large Numbers: In case you are not familiar with this concept, it is used in science and engineering. It is most often applied in the insurance and market research industries. The short of it is that as your data points increase, your result will continue a pattern that becomes consistent, predictable, and highly useable.
If I send out 10 surveys, the response rate and survey results will be questionable. If I send out 100 surveys, the response rates will become more predicatble and useful. If I send out 1,000 surveys or more the response rates will be very predictable and the results close to scientific. (Science also requires ruling out known factors that could cause false results.)
JWD POLL: Last June and July we conducted a "Poll" of people on ths board as to the numbers of JW pedophiles they have known or known of while they were JWs. The resulting reads (surveys received) with respect to the responses (surveys returned) were quite high. I would have to go back and count them again.
The Results: The only important demographic, besides the posters having been, or still, JWs, is that the respondants are from various parts of the USA, which they were. Using their responses, we could apply the Law of Large Numebrs, and extrapolate these to the then 11,500 +/- JW congregations in the USA. We found that there is an approximate average of 1 JW pedophile for every 2 JW congregations in the USA - or - about 5,370 known JW pedophiles in the USA.
Bill's use of 23,000+ JW pedophiles: The sources he has are reasonably credible, but he cannot reveal these. Nevertheless, the 23,000 number is for JWs worldwide ... and are the numbers known to the world headquarters of Jehovah's Winesses, the Watchtower Society in New York. The worldwide ratios reasonably match the USA ratios. And the ratios of JW pedophiles to JW non-pedophiles are not far off from the general population. Religions tend to have higher numbers ... so the JW religion is about average to slightly higher than average compared to other churches.
What is the argument?: If the JW religion is not much worse, or about the same as every other church, then what is the beef? It is how policy of the JWs shields JW pedophiles, whereas most other churches do not protect them. The exceptions are the Catholic Church and the Mormons, both facing major litigation just as the JWs are facing.
The argument of the Watchtower being a Pedophile Paradise is not because the numbers are necessarily worse, but that internal policies and procedures are harming the children, because the JW pedophiles are still on the loose in their ranks - when it could have been prevented. This creates a protective Paradise for their pedophiles.
Had this been, say, a Baptist church, the men in the congregation would have excorted the Pedophile to the police station, as they did for a Baptist Pastor I knew out in Oregon ... they did not just hear his confessioin and fire him as Pastor, they turned him over to the authorities, and testified at his trial.
What did Bill do? He has merely used numbers shared with him that have proven to be reasonably consistent with Poll results, and with the national averages for churches. So nothing is inflated, nothing is fake. The actual numbers could prove somewhat less or more, however, that is not the issue. I have not seen where he has added to these numbers any specific predictions ... for if he had, you would have been able to specifically quote them.
The only 'prediction' I have hear him make is with respect to what actions he will take ... and he has taken these actions, consistent with his statements. Lawsuits have been filed in a number of states against the Society and local congregations in JW pedophile cases. He has provided a support site for victims ... personally attended trials ... given Dateline the interview. He has not waivered from his mission to expose the problem.
What is it now that you have done to protect JW children? Good day.
