Have Anglosphere (USA+UK) sanctions against Russia failed?

by fulltimestudent 8 Replies latest social current

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Its fair to say that western sanctions have hurt the Russian economy and made life a little more difficult for ordinary Russian families, but as far as causing a political/economic collapse of Russia - there is not much evidence that the sanctions are causing grief in Russia.

    And when you examine 'deals' that Russia has made since the sanctions were authorised, it may be that Russia is ahead of the game.

    It can be suggested that sanctions are a very weak tool. Famously, sanctions have not worked against China (back in Mao's time), Cuba or North Korea. They weakened Iraq, but caused the 2nd world economy then operating, and helped push Iraq back into anarchy. In a way sanctions are like the disfellowshipping sanctions used by our former loving brothers, some buckle under the pressure, but others get their backs up and decide they will never give in.

    But back to the "deals."

    It can be argued that sanctions pushed Russia closer to China. Some 100 trillions of dollars in deals between Russia and China have been announced since the sanctions were applied. New pipelines (oil and gas) are already under construction, and a new VFT (Very Fast Train- i.e. 300km/hour) rail-line route, is being surveyed eastward from Moscow. Details of armament deals have not been disclosed, but it is rumoured that the deals included the very latest Sukhoi fighter plane, the equivalent of the F-35 and the latest anti-aircraft rocket system.

    I've counted some five different arrangements (inclusive of the China deals) that the Russians have made since the Americans applied sanctions.

    I'll post these separately. The first will be the Russian-Saudi Arabia agreements just announced.

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Yesterday (July 7) a Russian newsagency announced more details of the growing entente with Saudi Arabia (who has been seen in the past as working within the western alliance).

    The report is written by M.K.Bhadrakumar, a reliable Indian commentator.

    Saudi Arabia puts big money in Russian economy


    BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR on JULY 7, 2015 in ASIA TIMES NEWS & FEATURES


    The Russian news agency Sputnik has reported on an agreement signed between the Russian Direct Investment Fund [RDIF] and the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia “to create a partnership to invest $10 billion into projects implemented in Russia.” The report said the Saudi funds will be invested within 4-5 years starting from this year and that seven concrete projects are “currently in the final stage”. The majority of Saudi investment will be made on Russia’s agricultural projects, as well as on medicine, logistics and the retail and real estate sectors.Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Konstantin Palace outside St. Petersburg, Russia, in JuneSaudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Konstantin Palace outside St. Petersburg, Russia, in June this year

    An interesting feature of the deal is that the Saudi investment vehicle will combine with other Asian sovereign wealth funds, especially the Russia-China investment Fund (which is backed by the China Investment Corporation.)

    Meanwhile, the RDIF disclosed that it also signed an agreement with another Saudi Arabian sovereign-wealth fund, the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority, to undertake projects in Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries.

    All this has developed since Crown Prince Mohammed made that shock visit to Moscow in June.

  • truthseeker100
    truthseeker100
    It's very difficult to impose any effective sanctions on a country with so much natural resources. History tells us that the Russians themselves are their own worst enemy. The sanctions imposed are probably just window dressing to make a few politicians feel better about themselves.
  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Next is India, and it should be noted that India has always had a close link with the Russian Armaments Industry, so while its no surprise for new deals to be announced, but they are coming from a government that the US has attempted to bring into the western alliance.

    On May 14, 2015, the Hindustan Times noted these military contracts with Russian companies:


    Another major bid cleared at the council meet is the Russian proposal to assemble advance twin-engine Kamov helicopters. The cost and other modalities for the 200 Kamov Ka-226T helicopters would be worked out later, defence sources said, pointing that some of them could be bought off the shelf.
    http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/govt-clears-a-string-of-big-ticket-defence-deals/article1-1346959.aspx
  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Another sign of the failure of the sanctions was the St Petersburg International Economic Forum held in St. Petersburg, Russia last June.

    The Asia Times reported:

    And no caravanserai could possibly compete with the 19th edition of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). Thousands of global business leaders – including Europeans, but not Americans; after all, President Putin is “the new Hitler” – representing over 1,000 international companies/corporations, including the CEOs of BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Total, hit town in style.
    Reference: http://atimes.com/2015/06/spief-st-petersburg-in-the-heart-of-the-action-escobar/

    No CEO's of large western companies would waste their time attending a conference of a failed state.

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent
    Regardless of the rights or wrongs of any the parties involved in this dispute between Russia and the West, it appears on face-values that the intent of the sanctions, that is to cause the collapse of the Russian economy, has not worked. The Russians have been able to work out new economic arrangements that make an economic collapse in Russia unlikely.
  • truthseeker100
    truthseeker100
    If the Chinese the Russians the Indians and Saudis strike many more of these deals and use their own currencies for their trades it's not going to be pretty picture in the Anglosphere. That's If they can learn to trust one another and that's a big if!
  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    Another deal that seems likely to come to reality:

    http://atimes.com/2015/07/russia-may-build-india-new-super-advanced-submarine/

    “Several sources related to the project that ET spoke with confirmed that talks on leasing a new submarine under the ‘Chakra 3′ project are in advanced stages and that the issue will be discussed during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Russia this week,” the report said. ...


    As Kyle Mizokami has observed on The National Interest: “The Yasen class is one of the most advanced submarines in the world. The class reportedly has a crew of only ninety, implying a high level of automation. A 200MW nuclear reactor is thought to power the submarine to a maximum speed of 35 to 40 knots, with a ‘quiet operating speed’ of 20 knots.” ...

  • fulltimestudent
    fulltimestudent

    On this topic, there is news today of a huge new joint-Russian-Chinese dairy project in north China. It involves a project milking 100,000 cows.

    A joint company financed with 161 billion (US) dollars has been established between China's Zhongding Dairy Farming and Russia's Severny Bur who will work together on the project.

    Is a 100,000 cow facility practical? In central China (Anhui Province) there is already a 40,000 animal facility. The largest in the USA is a 30,000 animal unit in Fair Oaks, Indiana.

    A giant stockfeed venture has also been established. Earlier this month, China's Huae Sinban Co signed an agreement to lease 115,000 hectares (284,000 acres) in Russia's Transbaikal region for feedstock, according to state-run Russia Today. The company is expected to invest about $450 million in the project over the next half century. Huae Sinban plans to lease up to 200,000 hectares in Russia if the first stage of the project from 2015-2018 works out.

    The background to this dispute illustrates the futility of sanctions imposed by the USA. Russia imposed a ban on most agricultural products from the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia and Norway until August 2016, in retaliation for recently renewed Western economic sanctions over Russia's military moves in Ukraine and Crimea.

    So farmers in those countries lost significant Russian markets. Now those farmers will have to face up to losing a huge percentage of Russian milk/cheese business forever as this new venture (and, likely others) take over the market.

    The likely affect of the Chinese-Russian move is spelled out in this statement:

    Mansel Raymond, chairman of the Milk Working Party Copa-Cogeca, an organization representing European agricultural groups, said the ban and the Sino-Russian dairy venture are a concern for EU dairy farmers.
    "The scale of Chinese investment in dairy production is vast," Raymond told UK-based Farmers Weekly. "I wonder now whether we will ever get the Russian milk market back.
    "Building a 100,000-cow dairy farm is simply mind-boggling. If the project goes ahead and the 100,000 head represents milking cows, this unit alone could produce 800 million liters a year (about 200 million gallons).
    "In that case, it would equate to 100,000 tons of cheese – and that would mean this unit alone could produce about 30 percent of our previous exports to Russia," Raymond added.
    In August 2014, when the Russian agricultural-product sanctions were first imposed, they were estimated to affect about one-tenth of Russia's $43 billion in yearly food imports, straining both foreign suppliers and Russian consumers, the Los Angeles Times reported.
    "The food embargo by Russia that began in August of 2014 impacts approximately $1 billion of the $1.4 billion of ag and food products that the US sold to Russia," David Salmonsen, senior director of congressional relations for the American Farm Bureau Federation, said in an e-mail to China Daily. "Those most impacted are Russian consumers and European farmers who had a large share of food exports to Russia."
    EU countries were shipping about $2.7 billion in produce a year to Russia, and the embargo's impact will be felt unevenly among the 28 countries in the EU, analysts said.
    "For the larger EU economies - Germany included - the costs are bearable. For some of the smaller EU economies, the pain will be more acute," the Times reported, quoting RBS Capital.

    Link: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2015-07/09/content_21229773.htm

    I predict a lot of unhappy European (mostly) farmers.

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