Most of us already realize that the Society's doctrine of 144,000 persons who are chosen from the earth to serve as kings and priests in heaven is full of crap. But, did you know that there is a way to statistically prove this?
Part of the doctrine states that this number was fully sealed in 1935. If that is the case, then this group is very old. Yet, despite their old age, they seem to be virtually immortal, defying all normal mortality laws.
So, to highlight the stupidity of this doctrine, I have performed an actuarial calculation for this group. This has been posted before, but now that the numbers are out for 2002, a new year can be added.
Here are the highlights:
- 96.6% of the anointed are fake
- Since 1988, 75 of the anointed have come back to life
- Anointed members of the governing body who died in the last 15 years must have cursed god on their deathbed, because their deaths did not reduce the count
Assumptions:
- The group was fully sealed in 1935.
- At that time, the minimum age of the anointed was 30. This is probably a low estimate for someone who has proven themselves worthy of this great distinction.
- Any new appointments are simply replacements for ones who have fallen away. Due to age and the remarkable loyalty of these ones, replacements are very seldom needed, and are negligible.
- The great and powerful Society is correct in everything they say and do.
- I am using the GAM71 mortality table. Some of you may notice that my numbers have been slightly adjusted since last year. This is because I converted to a more precise actuarial table.
................Expected
......Mortality.Ending..Actual...
year..Rate......Qty.....Quantity.Var..Age
1970 0.015412 10368 10368 0000 65
1971 0.017104 10191 10526 0335 66
1972 0.018969 09997 10384 0387 67
1973 0.021033 09787 10350 0563 68
1974 0.023448 09558 10523 0965 69
1975 0.026292 09306 10723 1417 70
1976 0.029504 09032 10550 1518 71
1977 0.032869 08735 10187 1452 72
1978 0.036301 08418 10080 1662 73
1979 0.039927 08082 09762 1680 74
1980 0.043839 07727 09727 2000 75
1981 0.048238 07355 09564 2209 76
1982 0.053347 06962 09601 2639 77
1983 0.059034 06551 09529 2978 78
1984 0.065154 06124 09292 3168 79
1985 0.071758 05685 09081 3396 80
1986 0.078649 05238 09051 3813 81
1987 0.085814 04788 08808 4020 82
1988 0.093327 04341 08685 4344 83
1989 0.101309 03902 08734 4832 84
1990 0.109641 03474 08869 5395 85
1991 0.118392 03063 08850 5787 86
1992 0.127583 02672 08683 6011 87
1993 0.137356 02305 08693 6388 88
1994 0.147801 01964 08617 6653 89
1995 0.159015 01652 08645 6993 90
1996 0.170841 01370 08657 7287 91
1997 0.183379 01118 08795 7677 92
1998 0.196694 00898 08756 7858 93
1999 0.211942 00708 08755 8047 94
2000 0.228647 00546 08661 8115 95
2001 0.246587 00411 08730 8319 96
2002 0.265270 00302 08760 8458 97
Of 8730 annointed, 96.6% are actuarially unexpected
Edited by - RunningMan on 15 November 2002 16:5:10