The Watchtower is using the 'watchman' argument again...
From the January 1st Watchtower 2003, 2nd article called "Keep On The Watch", box on page 21.
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"Happy Is The One Who Is Keeping In Expectation." - Daniel 12:12
Imagine that a watchman suspects that a thief is planning to burgle the premises he is guarding. When night falls, the watchman listens intently for any noise that might betray the presence of the burglar. Hour after hour he strains his ears and eyes. It is easy to see how he could be deceived by a false alarm - the sound of a gust of wind in the trees or a cat knocking something over. - Luke 12:39, 40.
Something similar can happen to those who are "eagerly waiting for the revelation of our Lord Jesus Christ." (1 Corinthians 1:7) The apostles thought that Jesus would 'restore the kingdom to Israel' soon after his resurrection. (Acts 1:6) Years later, Christians in Thessalonica had to be reminded that Jesus' presence was some time in the future. (2 Thessalonians 2:3, 8) Still, false alarms about the day of Jehovah did not make those early followers of Jesus abandon the path leading off into life. - Matthew 7:13.
In our day, disappointment over seeming delays in the coming of the end of this system of things should not cause us to drop our guard. An alert watchman maybe deceived by a false alarm, yet he had better keep on the watch! That is his job. It is the same with Christians.
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The 1st paragraph starts of with a prime example of 'circular reasoning', which is where an unproved premise ("Imagine that a watchman suspects...") is used as a starting point for an argument and then the argument proceeds to build on the premise rather than on proven facts. The Watchtowers whole end-times theology is a classic example of 'circular reasoning'.
Second paragraph uses the argument that since other worshippers of God made mistakes then that gives us justification for us to do it. Using that same (false) argument (Which I know I shouldn't be), since worshippers of God in the O.T. committed fornication, adultery (David + Bath-Sheba) and murder then that gives us justification to do it too. A false analogy.
In the last paragraph it has the statement "An alert watchman (symbolised by Jehovah's Witnesses) maybe deceived by a false alarm[s]". The question i'd like to ask is; Who's sounding the false alarms?
The whole box is one big false analogy, which starts off with a circular reasoning and goes from there.
Can't believe I once believed this argument...
AK