by RAYZORBLADE 8 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
Does anyone know if the WTBTS releases the actual number of people disfellowshipped or disassociated in any given year?
Not that they'd give the names and their DF/DA offenses.
I vaguely remember an assembly where some numbers were released regarding the number of persons disfellowshipped for a particular offense, for example: smoking, adultery, apostacy, etc., that sort of thing.
Or is this one of those private WTBTS matters?
: Does anyone know if the WTBTS releases the actual number of people disfellowshipped or disassociated in any given year?
They've mentioned in the past that about 80,000 JWs are DFd each year. I've been told that the numbers are more like 100,000, but I cannot verify it. They don't mention any stats on those who are DA'd or just fade away. I would suspect that those unmentioned are significantly greater than those DF'd.
Also, remember that some dubs DO come back to that vomit that got them kicked out or scared them away. The only real numbers that can be quantified are those that show their "growth" each year. Those numbers are nothing like the WTS wished they would be: mostly dub kids getting baptised, and the WTS knows that the majority of those kids will only sell their books until they are emancipated. Jehovah must really be pissed off at them (the WTS) these days. I know I am.
Farkel
There was a PR-brochure in Germany that stated that in 1994 in Germany 1.335 (0.8%) "showed that they did not want to be known as JW any longer" and 378 were reinstated.
I am not sure if the counted only the DA or DA/DF.
No way...
I just make a calculation within the past 10 years regarding their growth. They claim that 350.000 getting baptized every year...if you miltiply this number by 10 years that makes another 3.000.000-3.500.000 JW that have join the Borg.
But the WT shows the number of puplishers inluding baptized and not baptized...plus they claim that they have 5.000.000 bible studys(many of them 70% are JW kids)and are publishers...so you can't have an exact idea of the people you are leaving. With this numbers and a rough calculation their number is should be at least 10.000.000. But they have only 6.300.000
I had fun playing with the numbers on another thread last night and today. Go to the study article area and look for the thread titled: making sense of the report. I was very shocked at first at the 3% growth rate claimed in the U.S. this year. I believe I have found the way these numbers lied. It is in fact about 9 out of 10 of those Dfd and DAd that return. Take a look and leave input.
The WTS has stated (I can't provide a ref) that about 1% per year are DFd, and that about 40% of them come back (in line with what GermanJW said). I don't know if that includes those that DA. The percentages change, of course, in a critical period (like after 1975), and perhaps are different now. I once did a statistical analysis based on figures from 1950 to 1995, and the current number of active publishers compared to those who have been baptized indicates about a 2:1 ratio of inactive/DA to DFd.
If these numbers are anywhere close, there are today about 600,000 DFd and 1.2 million more "out" that were at one time counted as publishers.
Craig
A number I would love to see is the number of baptized JWs (on a yearly basis)... I don't care if they are active or not... I want to know how many baptized JW's there are. This would be very interesting to compare to the number of Active publishers.
I would also like to see the number of people who are DFed, DAed or Inactive.
the last published numbers were over 40,000-- in 1998 the year i left we asked the CO why they stopped publishing the numbers- he told us that Leon Weaver of the Service dept told him that a decison was made to no longer publishe them since they could be discouraging to the friends
in 1998 he told him that over 60,000 had been df, 5 yrs later if the trend of dfing can be used the number is probably higher
james
The 40% reinstatement figure is misleadingly low. Actually this is calculation of those who had been DFd AT LEAST ONCE and who now were in good standing. The numbers of actual DFd ones returning is closer to 9 out of 10. The fact that about half of DFd people are DFd twice or more creates the different numbers. My calculations on the other thread arrived at 1.3% DFd and DAd in the U.S.
