I havent been on this site for a while (and its changed a bit) there are so many new people here.X-jw's seem to crawl out of every corner.Just wondering Is there any accurate or nealy there ,way that we could calculate just how many X-jw's there are in the world.Any guess's
just how many X-jw's are there
by sleepy 6 Replies latest jw friends
-
-
jgnat
Here is one, from the Freeminds site.
How many members are lost each year?
No direct figures are available for this. However, calculate the increase between 1992 and 1994 and compare to the number baptized.
1994 Average Publishers (4,695,111) less
1993 Average Publishers (4,483,900) equals
211,211. Yet 314,818 were baptized, a loss of 101,841.
Or, compare:
1993 Average Publishers (4,483,900) with 1992 Average Publishers (4,289,737) equals
194,163. Yet 296,004 were baptized, a loss of 103,607.
Compared to the baptism figures, there are missing numbers of 101,841 and 103,607, respectively. This figure encompasses the deceased, the inactive, disfellowshipped, and disassociated. (A 1% mortality rate may be expected, but a JW who has investigated this has suggested that 0.5% is more likely given the demographic profile of membership.) It is also inflated by those who were baptized in 1994 but were already active preachers in 1993, but this is more than compensated by the larger number who are preachers in 1994 but not yet baptized, i.e. still students (usually so for a few months) or unbaptized children (perhaps for 10 years or more). As with all these figures, the picture varies greatly across the world.
-
Gamaliel
Apparently there must be more than 2 million living exJWs, based on the same ideas that jgnat presented. A lot of them must have family, friends, religions or organizations to go to (or return to) on the outside, because so very few of them, by comparison, end up on forums like this one.
(I was just thinking that the ones that do end up on the Net will be more likely to question and leave a lot more of their former ways of thinking, not just the JWs. Must be why we're such a wild, diverse bunch.)
Gamaliel
-
TresHappy
Think how lucky us ex JW's are today. When people started leaving way back when, no Internet or support was available. Has anyone read the testimony of Bill and Joan Cetnar, who left in the 1960's? Amazing testimony!
-
Brummie
I know over a million left after the 1975 thing, that can be added to your count.
Plus there are many EXjws still inside the movement who are only going to meetings to save their family life, but mentally they are definately Xs.
Tress I have heard Bill & Joans testimony and it is great, Bill was the one assigned by the GB to go and see how much blood was being put into vaccinations, he discovered NO blood was in there and then the Society had new light from God and changed the vaccination policy...you already know this since you heard the testimony so why am I yapping on!
Met Joan in 1998, what a great person.
Brummie
-
gitasatsangha
JWs have no regular method of counting membership, unless by counting publishers. Technically they could count memorial partakers, or perhaps even "delegates" at conventions, if they felt like it. I read a book on surveying world religions (I forget the title, I dont live in the city where that library was) which suggested the Witnesses had to replenish the ranks due to attrition and walkouts so often that there might almost be as many ex-witnesses as there were members of the current faith.
It's telling, with that in mind, that no real breakaway group of substance ever formed to appeal to this "Great crowd." What prevents a schism? Central control of the congregations perhaps, but even that could be worked out. The reason is that JWism has strayed so far from Christianity that it is a faith unto its own, and a fundamentally flawed one at that. It cannot be reformed to any workable state, with the exception possibly of the older Bible Student splinter groups, or the oddballs in Rumania. One would sooner reform the Scientologists.
The book which dealt with these numbers was written in the eighties. Since then a great deal has happened. I would imagine if its hypothesis were correct, the number race would be about current or more now. That might mean 6,000,000 or more ex witnesses. This seems about right to me. Any of you who went to the hall think of this. In any case, you can't trust Watchtower statistics.
1: How many people you know who went to the hall and died that you remember. C'mon. A lot of grayhairs out there.
2: How many people were disfellowshipped at your hall that you remember. (It's ok to count yourself)
3: How many people got the big DA at your hall, that you remember.
4: How Many people just basically stopped coming (this includes Memorial Submarines)
5: How many young ones you know who stayed with the JW's, even after you left.
6: How much fresh meat got baptized/or started publishing, and stayed on after you left.
The numbers, I am guessing, might be dead even or more. They lean to the "X" in my case. Most halls I have seen also lean heavilly to the elderly side. This is not really good arithmetic, but it might be worth a broader study.
"There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics" PM Benjamin Disraeli.
-
christopherceo
I am proud to say that I am an xjw, maybe two, if I am more I'm not aware of it yet but I am happy to be at least one.
christopherceo