Possible war- and post-war-scenarios 1-5

Possible war- and post-war-scenarios In this gulf war "2", we have to calculate with the following possible war-theater-scenarios:

war-scenario 1: (likelihood smaller than 20% )
The USA and their Allied Forces are marching in in Baghdad within the next 2 weeks. The Saddam-loyal troops surrender. The leaders commit suicide. A new government (according to the process in WWII in Germany, or Japan 1945) get installed. Pause. Consequence: Irritation in UN continues , but the world goes business as usual...

war-scenario 2: likelihood approximately 30%
The USA-troops seize around Baghdad. The war lasts longer than expected, and becomes more expensive and more costly day by day. According to CNN, war-expenses of about more than 1,6 trillions dollars are calculated anyway. The Allied Forces conquer the free country and the oil-fields; but not the cities. Simultaneously, danger threats from side of Afghanistan, North Korea, maybe from Pakistan, and other countries. They consequently will go to withdraw their troops then from Iraq to fight against North Korea etc. Because two simultaneous wars on the ground with more than 400 000 troops they cannot lead. They are too weak to do so
In this situation they would put the blame for the disastrous situation to the UN as well as to the war-unwilling North-alliance (EC, Russia, China etc) and leave them alone in the whole shit.
Consequence: Total destabilization; Chaos.

war-scenario 3: Likelihood approximately 30%
The USA and the allied ones see most of all Arabic countries fall successively into the hand of fanatic Muslims and islamic fundamentalists. Caused through hate and anger about war.
In order to attain the respect and "liking" of the Arabic world again, they begin to invade in Israel and Palestine in order to establish "peace" and a palestine government there. Once again: total miscalculation and wrong-assessment.
Consequence: Even more chaos as in scenario 2

war-scenario 4: Likelihood approximatey 10%
The USA and their Allied Forces seize in the Iraq as mentioned above, and would be attacked by the Iraq with forbidden ABC-weapons. They consequently ask the UN and the previous war-rejecting countries about support in the fight. The UN agree, and France, Germany, Russia, China and others send a half million extra army to the "liberation" of the Iraq.
Consequence: A rebellion of the entire Islamic world against the " western enemies ".
Total chaos, too.

war-scenario 5: Likelihood 5-10%
The USA and their Allied Forces seize in the Iraq as mentioned above, and will use for their part forbidden weapons - namely nuke bombs - to shorten the period of this war. (See: Hiroshima)
Consequence: A enormous rebellion of THE WHOLE WORLD against the USA and alliance. They will become "outlaws" and completely isolated from the entire world.

Possibly there are more scenarios, but they hardly have chances.
Anyway, I think that during the period of this war (however at least afterward) " new light " regarding the king of the north and the king of the south will come. Possibly much more.... E.

Possible war- and post-war-scenarios 1-5

Erich

hurt

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