Why Another 1975 Scenario is Unlikely

by Stephanus 4 Replies latest jw friends

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  Stephanus

  I note that (the Brothers) Some are speculating that 2005 now exists as the Dubs' next "final" date to work towards. At this point in time, I can't see it being an effective carrot for attracting people outside the Witnesses. Basically, things are too good.

  1975 probably looked like a great date for the end, because so much had gone wrong in the early 70s; the post WWII "Long (economic) Boom" came to a screeching halt, the first of the "oil shocks" occurred, the US was losing the Vietnam War and looked like it could lose the Cold War with the USSR.

  Interestingly, while the JWs were getting off on bad events in the world at large, so were certain elements of mainstream "Christendom". Hal Lindsey's book "The Late Great Planet Earth", about the imminence of the Second Advent, was released in 1973 and took the Evangelical world by storm. Lindsey didn't say anything particularly new or profound, it's just that his timing was impeccable. 1973 was a particularly good year for saying "The End is Nigh", as many who were JWs in 1973 will no doubt attest.

  Fast forward to now; although things are slowing down economically and the US and China are none too friendly of late, 2005 just doesn't look likely as an end date (not if you want unsettling "signs" to accompany the end, that is). More people are living better, longer and healthier than they ever have. Of course, if there's a really deep global recession and a shooting war between the Taiwan and China in the next few years, then the temptation to make 2005 the new improved end date, in the name of recruitment, might be too much temptation for the GB to resist.
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  Skimmer

  The 1975 scenario will not happen again for several reasons:

  1) Too many people still within the WTBTS remember the disasters of the 1975 prophecy such as the great membership turnover and drop in growth following the failure of the Big A to arrive on time. The absolute numbers are far greater from the 1975 debacle than from the earlier debacles (1942, 1925, 1918, and 1914).

  2) The 1995 "new light" on the generation teaching makes it hard for many to accept any "new light" dealing with new dates or re-interpretation of old dates. A lot of older JWs/xJWs are justifiably annoyed that they have been the victims of a fifty year bait and switch (the old generation teaching) and so will not be too eager to take a bite at the next bait.

  3) Any attempt at replaying the 1975 false prophecy for a new date runs up against the massive amount of evidence on the Internet and this can all be used against any new proposed schedule for the Big A.

  4) In general, people are more skeptical today than decades ago.

  5) It may be that the governing body has learned a lesson; also, they are probably justified in the fear of one or more members bailing out with another tell-all book.

  6) The WT corporations may just refuse to propagate any fanciful predictions from the governing body that will cut into their bottom line. Who will bother with the charitable giving program if The End is just around the corner?

  7) Any definite predictions will make the "dangerous cult" label stick even more tightly, and they can't afford being banned or curtailed in revenue rich countries.

  With the above in mind, how might the WTBTS milk the innocents with their traditional Big A scare? It has been so profitable for them that it would be hard to come up with a substitute. So I think they will try again, but in a different way. They will use a whispering campaign. Specifically, they will start controlled rumors about the new schedule that will have an air of authenticity and these will be passed quietly from Brooklyn to all the rank and file. The WTBTS will not publish any exact information on this (might show up on the Internet), nor will they explicitly announce it at any public assemblies (too many tape recorders). Yet it will get out all the same, some date or maybe a short range of years that soon all will know while never allowing hard evidence for opposers. The sad thing is that the strategy will work; the governing body knows that most JWs are rumor lovers and the GB will use this to their advantage.

  The literature will go out, the money will come in, and when the date(s) flop yet again, all the blame will be given to the rank and file for the sin of untheocratic speculation.
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  Stephanus

  Skimmer, I was going to make a follow-up post with some of the points you raised :
  (your numbering used)

  1) Yes, the fact that some people still have vivid memories would definitely be an impediment to a new date. I note that the previous date fraud was perpetrated 50 years earlier (1925) meant that there just weren't the surviving numbers to exercise caution about the new (1975) date. 2005 is only 30 years; too short to get away with, especially with a few years to lead up to it.

  3) Yes, the Dubs in the early 70s could hide behind slow communication and lack of information available. The internet makes it too hard, especially if they are trying to recruit from outside, where people aren't as afraid of the 'net.

  In addition, I wonder whether the temptation to create a new date would be to keep the present members in, or to recruit new members. Remember, growth was substantial up until 1976.
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  Scorpion

  Just this week in the congregation I attended, another long time raised in the borg stayed in all his life JW died. This is the third JW over 70 that died in the last 5 months from the KH I attended. I know many of the older ones that were very good friends with them. There are a few with very strong doubts as far as if they themselves will see Armageddon.

  It is sad to see so many people give up their lives for an organization that has drummed up lies and deceived people for a profit, or was that false prophet?

  For the WT to bring in a new date, it would seem they would have to revamp their chronology to fit the date. To do this would mean out with the old books and in with the new. This would mean every faithful JW buying new books to keep up with the new light. This would mean more money generated for the WT and those making the money who actually own the corporation, whoever they may be. This is the main concern of those who control the interest of the Society. A new date may discourage some, but incourage others, especially the younger witnesses and those new to the untruth. The Society will always have supporters, the reason, there are just to many ignorant people out there in the world that need a crutch and need something besides relying on common sense to guide them.

  Just my thoughts on this.
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  crossroads

  2033
  Thats it the new date, The JW's need a date they have to
  have one. There reward is so pathetic that if the end was
  not in sight no one would come in. There is no reason
  because if you die you win[resurrection to earth] so the end being within grasp is a must.
  1963+70years[generation]=2033.

  63-missile crisis-Jerusalem surounded be encamped
  armies. True religion now in N.Y. all missiles pointed
  where? The old Soviet leader backing down to a womanizing
  spoiled rich kid I think not[Bobby was the great one]
  For know reason Soviets pull back-Jack was catholic
  he would have never fired.

  Oh and the year don't you love it 2033-33-33-33-33.
  Yes I believe the great fictional writing staff in Brooklyn
  can do this. It's 50 years past the last failed attempted
  it works for me.

  Hey if this idea ever gets used I want 5 cents a magazine
  for it-going to run out and look for my beach house now.