What does the fact that WT baptism numbers are still high in the pandemic tell us?

by Vanderhoven7 7 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  Vanderhoven7

  I thought Jiles Grey response to this question was interesting:

  "I think that it demonstrates just how ineffective the Jehovah’s Witnesses’ door to door evangelising is.

  In 2019 there were 303,866 people baptised. This was during a year when the preaching work was in full swing.

  In 2020 there were 241,994 people baptised. This was during a year when Covid halted much of the preaching work.

  The fact that there was only a difference of -61,872 new converts indicates just how many of the newly dedicated people are in-house, many of them being children of JWs who have been brought up in the religion. It would be very interesting to see the data on the average age of the baptismal candidates.

  Considering that the numbers of those who were baptised last year are considerably less than the 297,872 people who were baptised in a single year in the mid 70s (when the number of publishers was only around 1.5 million, compared to over 8 million in 2019/20), last year’s numbers, and even those of 2019, are not at all encouraging.

  The two decades from the year 2000 has shown that the growth of the Jehovah’s Witnesses has reduced dramatically, from 11.92% during the years 1996 to 2000, down to a mere 3.59% during the years of 2016 to 2020.

  Like most religions, the growth of the Jehovah’s Witnesses has been stagnating in recent years and last year showed the first reduction in membership since 1978."
• 

  Corney

  The fact that there was only a difference of -61,872 new converts indicates just how many of the newly dedicated people are in-house, many of them being children of JWs who have been brought up in the religion.

  ALL newly baptised people are "in-house" because one must attend meetings and serve as an exemplar unbaptised publisher for at least few years (maybe an year or so in some cases) before being baptised.

  Newly baptised ≠ new converts.

  And I think the 2020 decrease in baptisms can be attributed to "logistics" issues (cancelled assemplies, movement restrictions etc.) rather than to those related to the field ministry.
• 

  JWTom

  And I think the 2020 decrease in baptisms can be attributed to "logistics" issues (cancelled assemplies, movement restrictions etc.) rather than to those related to the field ministry.

  I agree that the numbers are down most likely due to the challenges of getting baptized during Covid. I think the number of born-ins is much higher and the lower overall number is simply the reality that fewer young publishers or their parents want to do a baptism that is not at at assembly.

  Also, I think if started having assemblies right away there might be a larger number of baptisms at the first one held in each area. This is due to the fact that it is a source of pride for many witness parents to see their kids get baptized in front of a large crowd and they are holding off having them get baptized until they can have the glory of baptism at a large convention.
  
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  road to nowhere

  With people being home more with fewer recreation outlets I expect an increase in around 10 years, you know the adult decision thing.
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  Diogenesister

  Road to nowhere 🤣true!

  I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bump in baptisms when the halls reopen (partly for 'glory' reasons as @JwTom mentioned) but also because the pandemic is likely to panic POMi's into going back to the hall and getting baptised. They've also been pushing avoiding those who have 'left Jehovah' a lot lately, too, and that always pressurises unbaptised family.
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  dropoffyourkeylee

  The baptisms I have seen on zoom are kind of pitiful. Usually just one at a time in a pool in someone's back yard. One was in a large bathtub. No clapping or congratulations like the JWs are accustomed to.
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  FFGhost

  As noted above, probably most of the dunkees are kids of JWs. That certainly is the case in wealthier western lands.

  The 241,994 figure is for the "2020 service year" (September 2019 - August 2020). That was 6-7 months pre-pandemic, so you'd expect the numbers to have been pretty "normally" for over half the year.

  In addition, there were still a bunch of "Bible studies" in the pipeline to get baptized, especially in poorer countries where people still respond. From initial call to final dunking will always take many months, probably not unusual for it to take a couple of years.

  The entire "2021 service year" (September 2020 - August 2021) was conducted in full-blown pandemic.

  Absolute 0 door to door, absolute 0 cart witnessing. 100% phone calls and letters.

  The numbers for the 2021 service year ought to be ready in 3-4 months. I would be willing to bet large quantities of candy corn that the number of baptisms reported will be much much lower than even the low number for the 2020 service year - maybe even under 200,000.

  And if pandemic restrictions continue for a large chunk, or even all, of the 2022 service year (already started), the number reported will drop again - even more.
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  luckynedpepper

  1996 to 2000 growth- This includes its own scare factor. End was supposed to be before the "end of this century". It may not have been 1975 but "end times" could have been a factor in peoples decision making