Australia 2021 Census: why did JW grow?

by shepherdless 6 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  shepherdless

  Hi all, some may remember about 5 years ago, I did a few articles on what the Australian census of 2016 said about JW and some other religions. I have been meaning to add a bit on the 2021 census; the more detailed results have only been available in the last month or so.

  An obvious question is why and how did JW numbers increase between 2016 and 2021. It is reasonable to assume the pandemic had a role. The data doesn't fully answer that question, but it does show that a lot of over 35 y.o.'s "returned to Jehovah". Data shows an increase in the 5 to 9, and 10 to 14 age groups (presumably dragged back by their parents), but generally younger age groups continued to decline.

  Rather than go into detailed narrative, I will just repeat a few charts, similar to ones I did in the past. There is some narrative in my posts from 5 years ago, if it helps.

  Firstly, the breakdown by age (in 5 year groups):

  
  

  Looking across the chart horizontally is interesting, but looking diagonally can be more interesting, as, for example, those in the 15-19 age group in 2016 are in the 20-24 age group in 2021.

  Another chart I did before was in relation to how old the members of the JW religion is becoming. The trend is continuing.

  
  

  The population tree on the left represents the JW population in 2016. The population tree on the right is the equivalent in 2021.

  Another chart I did before showed that JWs are becoming statistically so old that there are fewer female JW's under 40, which affects their ability to reproduce and indoctrinate young ones. Here is the update on the chart.

  
  

  I think the chart speaks for itself.

  When I get time, I hope to add some more details and data.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Thank you shepherdless, this is excellent information. 👍

  I wonder, do you have access to the figures for the very small groups: Christadelphians and Unitarians? Because I have a particular interest in these groups, and the data is not available on Wikipedia.

  I am all in favour of comparisons between groups, because I think it’s a major way we can make sense of trends and the significance of various factors affecting growth. It’s fair to point to the pandemic as having a major impact, for example, and at the same time all religious groups experienced the pandemic. So if some groups declined and others grew during the pandemic, then we need to expand on the relevance of the pandemic as an explanation for a particular trend in a particular group.

  According to the data for 2021 and 2016 for religious groups in Australia, this is how JW growth compares with other Christian groups:

  Anglican - 19.5%

  Baptist + 0.6%

  Catholic - 4.1%

  Churches of Christ - 9.3%

  Jehovah’s witnesses + 2.3%

  Latter Day Saints - 6%

  Lutheran - 16%

  Eastern Orthodox - 8.1%

  Pentecostal - 0.3%

  Presbyterian and Reformed - 21.2%

  Salvation Army - 27.6%

  Seventh-day Adventist + 1.3%

  Uniting Church - 22.6%

  So Jehovah’s Witnesses are the fastest growing Christian group at + 2.3%, followed by Seventh-day Adventists at + 1.3%, and Baptists at + 0.6%

  The other Christian groups have all declined, some, including the Uniting Church, Lutheran, Presbyterian and Reformed, and Anglican by around a fifth, or 20%. The steepest decline was in the Salvationists at - 27.6%.

  These figures are similar to trends in the UK. Over the year 2021, for example, the Church of Scotland lost over 5% of its membership. Other churches are similar. The only groups I have observed showing signs of growth during the pandemic are JWs and SDAs.
• 

  joey jojo

  No doubt the pandemic scared a few back.

  The chart indicates that there are far fewer babies being born into the org in 2021 than 2006, that's interesting.
• 

  smiddy3

  Thinking back to when I became a JW in 1960 their were about 60 thousand members in the religion and now there are about 84 thousand did I read that correctly ?
• 

  TonusOH

  Difficult times tend to favor the JW efforts, as people are more likely to hedge their bets. Older JWs in particular might be more inclined to return 'just in case.' Then, as time passes and nothing happens, the numbers will dwindle again.
• 

  shepherdless

  Thanks all for comments.

  Smiddy: yes, that would be about right.

  SBF:

  I can't find any data for Unitarians. They don't seem to feature. Here is a quick self-explanatory table:

  

  I included Bretheren because they concern me, because I come across them a bit.

  Quick comments before I have to rush out the door:

  Despite what the percentage growths suggest, I think SDA is doing better than JW, in that its demographics (ie no of young people) is far more in balance. JW was far better organised in dealing with the pandemic than most religions. There may also be an effect in recent numbers, that people are forgetting about what was revealed by an Aust Royal Commission of a few years ago. JW is doing better than most, for sure.

  I will do a median age calc at some point when I get the time. I did a fertility calc for JW as a population, which gave a very low number, so I have to check it to see if I made a mistake.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Thank you shepherdless. So the Christadelphians seem to be holding up with fairly stable numbers at the moment. There are more Christadelphians in Australia than there are in the UK, by the way. There are probably fewer than 8000 Christadelphians in the UK.

  I see the Brethren are increasing too. I take it that figure is for all strands of Brethren combined. The splinter groups among the Brethen are among the most complicated of any tradition. In my home town there are three different varieties of Brethren, plus a charismatic splinter group. In fact the charismatic group is the largest as well as the most recent.

  I did think that Unitarians were listed in Australia last time, but I may be mistaken. There are certainly a handful of Unitarian congregations in Australia. I don’t suppose there is a listing for Universalists.
  

  I wonder if the Iglesia ni Cristo are listed too.