I read this article on exjwreddit and thought it was so well written, that just summed everything up. I've cut and paste it. Here is the link to it on reddit.
https://m.reddit.com/r/exjw/comments/4spw99/where_have_all_the_jws_gone/
I joined the WT church as a young man, every congregation I went to, as well as the assemblies, had plenty of older folks. When you see the statistics from PEW RESEARCH's Which U.S. religious groups are oldest and youngest? article, it gives validity to what you hear "on the street", that this is not the case anymore. There are just not as many "older ones" at the Kingdom Halls.
Perhaps part of the reason that was "way back when” was that the strong message of "Don't have children!" was still promoted by the higher ups, and still echoed to a degree in JW culture. Almost every JW over 50 that I met when I joined, was a long-timer, whether born-in or having joined as a much younger adult.
I have often heard comments referring to the "older ones dying off." Yes, old people die. But I wonder ifthat is really the biggest reason for the current demographic breakdown. After all, take a look at all the churches at the higher end of the list in that PEW RESEACH article. They have very high older memberships. And why wouldn't they. It is well established that the older generations have higher church attendance that younger generations. Also, there is no evidence, or even indicators, that JWs die substantially earlier that the general population, or other church memberships.
I am speculating here, but this is my two cents on the demographic breakdown:
The older generation, especially pre-70s JWs, had seen changes in the WT and lived through failed expectations, too. Many stuck through it faithfully. Even the post 1975 debacle exit did not account for them leaving in droves. (After all, there was a pre-1975 surge, specifically because the 1975 scare tactics. A good portion the 1975 aftermath was certainly a loss from that surge.) Older JWs still remaining faithful makes sense, from the JW perspective, because the 1914 Generation dogma was still intact, and the end was even closer. Reallyclose.
It wasn't until the 90's that the 1914 Generationdogma was deemphasized by the WT. By that time, the strong Don't have children mantra had also faded out. Babies were popping out at a much greater rate, and there were more children in the congregations. What followed over the next 10-15 years was that the organization began to lose the long-standing, reserved, conservative, and dignified demeanor, in many ways, that was the hallmark of JW culture. Other community-enhancing traditions, such as JW prepared foods at assemblies, were changing. (We still prepared hot entrees when I joined) As were long-time organizational methods, such as specified donations for literature. Perhaps one of the most dramatic changes during this period came in form of the WT teaching and literature itself. Sure, the WT's specific behavior guidelines kept flying in, as did condemnation of everything WT deemed "worldly" and rooted in "false religion." But, there was an extreme dumbing down of WT literature. The look and quality of the physical material were modernized, but this was a matter of style over substance. It may be difficult for anyone born in the last 30 years to grasp the insensitive of that change to those who lived through it as adults, but anyone who attended the weekly book study using the now out-of-print, 1973 "God's Kingdom of a Thousand Years Has Approached" book (and more than once! :O) can tell you that change in not just materials, butdepth of study was substantial and striking.
I believe these changes are at the real reason for the loss of older JWs.
Today we see fluffy, sparse literature, with an emphasis on sending people to JW.org if that have even the most minimal doctrinal questions. We now see bored, disinterested, shoe-gazing "cart witnessing" (reserved for pioneers no less!). We now see sanctioned Texas Line Dancing replete with Levi's, Stetson's, and Tony Lama's right on the Kingdom Hall platform. We now see a sanctioned and Bethel-made, secret video "Happy@Bethel" featuring the music of an R&B/Hip-Hop star, which is one of the two specified types of music that if you admitted to listening to precluded you to being accepted at Bethel not so long ago. In addition to the abandonment of the core 1914 generation doctrine, we have seen backpedaling and softening of some hard-core, line-in-sand, rules and dogma, such as the end of enforced "bedroom laws", the acceptance of "blood fractions," and allowing of post high-school "technical" education. Even the cult-specific language has changed. Anyone here talk about the "new order" at the Kingdom Hall? The list goes on and on and on.
Despite the heavy cult behavioral modeling, the increased separatism, the escalated shunning, the amplified scare tactics, and the cartoon-based mind-control videos for children, and all the heartbreaking, hypocritical, and damaging bullshit that millennial JWs go through every single day, organization is nowJW Lite in so many way compared to 40 years ago, when the organization was brimming with "older ones."
The current WT organization, along with modern JW duties and culture, has become practically unrecognizable to the 65 and older bracket and probably most of the 50-84 bracket as well. "This ain't your grandfather's Watchtower Society." Or, as might be said these days,
I'm proposing that there has not just been an exodus of young JWs, at twice the ratio of all other Christian churches, in recent years. But, that the older generation who have seen these monumental (to them) changes, especially the total failure and abandonment of the 1914 foundation dogma, have simply been leaving in masses; "fading," as we call it on this sub.
An exodus of older JWs would have different characteristics than that of younger JWs, which would likely mask the reality of phenomenon, both in and out of the organization. For many reasons, most JWs in their twilight years are far less likely to go the DA route, less likely to engage in exJW activism, less likely to heavily socialize with others and talk about their decisions, and more likely to just quietly move on and live out their life as best as they can. They are also unlikely to change their lifestyle into a noticeable and overtly "worldly" lifestyle and those who are in the prime of their life, which attract the attention of the local congregations.
Inside, the organization would not be concerned or focus any action on them directly, or organizationally. The org doesn't really care about the well-being of members. They are focused on the corporate holdings and future viability of the org. WT needs younger members for the future, not older ones. Local Elders will often chalk their "inactivity" up to health issues, or being old and worn out. Congregation members simply will say "Oh, poor brother so-and-so" or "Oh, I miss sister so-and-so" and that will be it. Since they are mostly not on Facebook 1^ and not at the meetings, it is out-of-sight, and out-of-mind for them. The copious accounts of JW culture from ExJWs attests to the reasonableness of this characterization. The transformation of the organization's informational delivery systems—JW.ORG, JW Broadcasting, big screen video delivery to both conventions and Kingdom Halls, iPads instead of paper at meetings, WT phone App, YouTube channels—and the relaxing of the JW's internet use restrictions are direct, volitional moves toward bolstering younger membership. As are the many recent changes listed in the above paragraphs, especially the comparatively next-to-nothing requirements to be a publisher.
There are so many compelling reasons from an "old school" JW perspective that would cause even the most enduring ones to simply walk away from the new Watchtower 2.0.
1^ Just over half of adults over 65 use the internet at all. High School grads or less, and those earning under $50K annually are a much smaller portion of online users. Less than half internet users over 65 are on Facebook. That demographic are the most sporadic. JWs over 65 fall into all of the lowest catagories.