Projected Stats

by Moxy 9 Replies latest jw friends

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  Moxy

  just thought for the helluvit, id play around with stats a bit more. i wanted to see if i could come up with some reasonable reliable projected growth numbers. let me get right to it and show you what ive got. then read on for an explanation of how and why.
  
  dotted line shows projected

  world avg pubs peaks in about 5 years at 6 1/2 million.

  US avg pubs has just peaked already and so, unfortunately, never hits the big ONE MILL.

  now, a caveat. i have a solid background in advanced mathematics and calculus (no thanks to my upbringing) but not much in statistics. so this is based on a calculus approach and what seems reasonable to me, and not on a study of projective statistical analysis.

  heres what i did:
  my numbers are all straight from the yearbooks by the way. i possess yearbooks back to the '50s. first i took the number only back 15 years. the jump and fall of the late '70s didnt iron out till about '85 so i thought it would be unfair to use numbers from before then. whereas '85-'00 has shown quite steady growth and rates of growth, so i figured these would be as reliable as i could get. then i smoothed out the percentage of increase rates by averaging each year with the years ahead of and behind it, then took the rate of change of percentage increase, kind of a 2nd derivative, till i got a pretty consistent trend appearing. then i simply reverse applied it to the avg pubs forward 10 years. i think a good indication that the trend is consistent is that the number i got for the average rate of change for US and the world was almost the same (about -.32 %/yr).

  so this is not something regional and not a blip on the charts. this is not like somebody in '79 saying, 'man, if this downturn keeps up the organization will die out in 10 years' '75-'85 had erratic jumps. '85-'00 features smooth trends. of course its still all as good as shot in the dark. anything can happen, but i thought you might like to see some solid mathematical backing for what everyone is expecting anyways.

  (stats, as always, available here: http://members.home.net/aghull/stats/)

  mox
• 

  waiting

  Thanks, moxy.

  Imo, the growth shows that the WTBTS is taking their show on the road - worldwide - and in particular, third world countries.

  The decline in the usa, and also in other technical countries, shows what happens in the peak, and afterwards. Decline.

  However, computers and the web will change growth patterns. Persons in third world countries will grow faster into the web than the usa did, imho, because it's not as new to them. The next couple of generations of kids will be brought up near computers, if not owning them.

  We have several members from small foreign countries on our forum - usually college students. The future is speaking.

  However, like in the usa, the WTBTS largest field of converts will be the lower working class - and those probably won't have computers for a while.

  waiting
• 

  larc

  Hey Moxy,

  I like your stuff! I first saw your work on the thread I started, called "JW decline."

  For your forecaste, another thing you might look at is the very significant drop in the number getting baptized. Just looking at the graphs, one can see this has preceeded the drop in over all numbers in many countries. I would bet that an Economist who knows what statistical methods to use to make projections from leading indicators could provide some useful calculation methods.

  Just on a qualitative level, when I look at the very big drops in baptisms, I conclude that they will not be able to put any action in place that will make any difference for many years to come. The damage has been done.
• 

  BugEye

  I just did a spline curve in sigmaplot 2000 to see if it looked any clearer in colours rather than dots and lines

  dave
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  BugEye

  Using the population normalised @ 1969 then dividing the average publishers by the normalization factor from then on gives a graphic example of the actual growth compared to the growth with the world population growth factored out.

  Dave
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  ozziepost

  Hmmm, don't know about this. Despite the pretty colours used, projections used here are 'iffy'. Slowed growth worldwide does not necessarily mean a decline. These loops used are based on conjecture. However, larc is quite right when he says

  you might look at is the very significant drop in the number getting baptized

  This maymean decline in future times, but it's too early to chart.

  Another problem with this type of chart is that we trend to use extrapolation. So just because the previous umpteen years have shown a certain pattern is no guaranteethat this will continue.

  Ozzie
• 

  BugEye

  This is the same as the adjusted graph but now with the projected sections included.

  Projections are always at best a guess and this one also includes a projection of population growth as well. In other words, its pretty but not prophetic (Would be in trouble from Deuteronomy)

  Dave
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  Pathofthorns

  Just on a qualitative level, when I look at the very big drops in baptisms, I conclude that they will not be able to put any action in place that will make any difference for many years to come. The damage has been done.

  Interesting comments Larc. I believe the Organization missed their only chance a few years ago to make needed changes. Instead they dropped the "generation bombshell" but basically held the course with all their other teachings.

  They failed to lift the burdens on the brothers, such as reducing the number of meetings. They also have failed to do an "internal ministry" in that they focussed so much time and effort on preaching to a public that doesn't care at the expense of time and effort directed to their own flocks.

  The Organization could have sustained exponetial growth if they had been able to keep their children in "the truth". Nearly all growth in countries where the truth has been established for many years comes from children raised in the truth being baptized.

  Now with a whole generation of children leaving the organization, there is no one to give birth to the future members. I believe the organization is well into a period of crisis that there is no way out of. Like you said, the damage has been done.

  Path
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  larc

  Ozzie,

  In 23 developed countries there have been actual declines in the last two years. This means that the combination of growing their own (having children) and the door to door work in these 22 nations is producing no gains whatsoever. It also indicates that their children are leaving at a pretty rapid rate. For more detail, see "JW Decline" on this forumn.

  By the way, I think that Economists probably use software to make projections using lead-lag analysis that would take into account the delining numbers getting baptized.
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  Moxy

  oops, first off, i had a typo in the calculations that was causing that jump at 2001. (got peak and avg mixed up.) corrected now, so the peak number would be 6.2 not 6.5 million

  second, i agree that the declining baptism rate is an important indicator. but so is the increasing 'drop' rate, what i call the number that apparently drop once you subtract out the knowns. when you calculate baptism and drop as a percentage of publishers from the previous year and project this, you get nearly the same numbers. essentially calculating the slope of increase as a percentage amounts to the same thing, which is what ive done.

  no, im not putting much weight on projected stats but i DID want to see what the numbers realisitically meant if they continued. its hard to see just by looking at them.

  mox