Worldwatch Institute vs Watching the World

by berrygerry 7 Replies latest watchtower bible

• 

  berrygerry

  
  
  Part of the "Last Days" in the Bible Teach book indicates that : "A report from the Worldwatch Institute states: “Three times as many people fell victim to war in [the 20th] century as in all the wars from the first century AD to 1899.” More than 100 million people have died as a result of wars since 1914."
  
  That seems to be quite the statement, given mankind's history of war, which, for the most part, seems to have only dimished since 1945.
  
  Fact-checking that quote shows that, first of all, it is not a quote by the Worldwatch Institute, but is actually a paper written by one of its contributors (Michael Renner) in 1999. ( http://www.worldwatch.org/system/files/WP146.PDF ) Additionally, that paper references a table (done by a different researcher) that indicates that the 20th century not only has the most war-related deaths, but far and away the greatest RATIO of deaths at 44.4 per 1,000 population.
  
  This table also indicates that the numbers for the last decade (the 90's) are pro-rated based upon the previous time period.
  
  When one researches the amount of wars in history, there are major errors with the numbers in that table, pre-20th century.
  
  More important, crunching the real numbers of the 20th century, brings the ratio of war deaths to about 11 per 1,000 population.
  
  In the decades since, has WT upgraded this view of Worldwatch?
  
  The revised "What Can the Bible Teach Us" has revised the Bible Teach statement to:
  
  "More people have been killed in wars in our time than at any other time in history. One report from the Worldwatch Institute shows that since 1914, wars have killed more than 100 million people. More than three times as many people were killed in wars during the 100 years between 1900 and 2000 as were killed during the previous 1,900 years. Just imagine the misery and pain that millions of people have felt because of war!"
  
  So, instead of looking at the past 70 years (since 1945), or even post-Viet Nam, WT clings to a very numerically-challenged paper from 1999. They also try to give this paper credence by ascribing it to the Worldwatch Institute.
  
  With respect to this institute itself, Google its reviews.
  
  Watch Tower has been quoting it since 1975, usually under "Watching the World."
  
  Hmmm, Watching the World - Worldwatch (very curious).
• 

  Village Idiot

  One must keep in mind that the world population was much less in the first 1900 years since the 1st century than those living during World War II.
• 

  berrygerry

  An institute after Watch Tower's heart:

  http://articles.latimes.com/1985-07-14/business/fi-6546_1_worldwatch-institute.

  Other than Brown himself, Worldwatch researchers have no advanced degrees or special expertise. But they are expert at distilling the essence of the experts' findings into easily digestible hunks for journalists, policy makers and others who don't have time to wade through stacks of original research.

  "We are really middlemen taking technical material assembled for a very narrow audience and extracting from it the essence of the situation that has importance and relevance for a popular audience," senior researcher Edward C. Wolf explained.
• 

  berrygerry

  It's not just the population difference.
  
  
  Other studies show much different stats: http://sdi.sagepub.com/content/22/4/437.extract
  
  The 19th-century death-tolls alone seem comparable to 20-th century.
  
  http://necrometrics.com/wars19c.htm
  
  However, the simplest metric is death per pop.
  
  Study said 44.4 per thousand
  
  Yet with roughly 100 million deaths to 10 billion pop. gives an easy calculation ( https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-lived-during-the-20th-century ), about 10 per thousand, less than previous time periods.
  
  (That is the 20th century, WWI and WWII. We are already into 100 years since the start of WWI, and will be passing Nov 11, 2018 in 2.5 years.
  
  Why is it unrealistic to look at the past 70 years as a metric?)
  
  With respect to the major discrepancy between 44.4 deaths per thousand, and 10 or so deaths per thousand - WT stated in its 2011 YB to ‘TRACING ALL THINGS WITH ACCURACY’

  "In summary, the Writing Department insists on using only material that is accurate and truthful, even regarding seemingly insignificant details. As a result, “the faithful and discreet slave” can consistently supply spiritual food that brings honor to “the God of truth,” Jehovah."
  
• 

  DATA-DOG

  Hmmm...??? Could Worldwatch be some WTBTS subsidiary? LOL! The Internet is killing the WTBTS! It's so easy to fact-check!

  DD
• 

  Sugar Shane

  Just show the J-dubs THIS, whenever they quote something about 20th century wars.

  This should shut em up...for a while, anyway:

  https://vimeo.com/128373915
  
• 

  ILoveTTATT2

  Great research!!
• 

  Beth Sarim

  Yes, Good work.