The handwriting on the wall

Skimmer

The best leading indicator of the JW membership count is the baptism count as it directly measures the efficiency of the field service. The baptism numbers represent the combined result of total hours, total literature, and total bible studies; it is the most reliable predictor of future membership counts.

And this is what has the WTBTS worried. They see the handwriting on the wall in nearly all of the developed countires and also some lesser developed countries. A one year decline in baptisms can be easily dismissed as a statistical fluke. Two consecutive years of decline is harder to explain in a good light. Three of more years of baptism count decline can only mean that the field service in a country is near collapse, or has already collapsed.

Here is a list of those countries that have had three or more consecutive years of decline in baptisms.

Three consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

Argentina
Cuba
Guatemala
India
Malawi
United States
Venezula

Four consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

Britain
Estonia
Germany
Hungary
Latvia
Mexico
Portugal
Russia
Switzerland

Five consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

Belgium
Canada
Finland
Poland
Slovakia
Sweden

Seven consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

Czech Republic
Italy
Japan

Eight consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

Denmark

Eleven consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

France

Pathofthorns

The best leading indicator of the JW membership count is the baptism count as it directly measures the efficiency of the field service.

Baptism numbers and field service efficiency are not necessarily directly related. Baptism numbers are more closely related to the number of youth who have been raised in the "truth" getting baptised.

The numbers reflecting those getting baptized are not necessarily of too much concern to the Society. What would be of greater concern are the numbers of those who are leaving.

Path

TheApostateAK

Field service is finished in Australia.

Francois

ApostateAK, what do you mean "field service in Australia is finished"? That's a very provocative statement. I hope it's true.

In another post, someone said that the number leaving is a better indicator of the statistical health of the organization. The number leaving, unless it's being reported differently now, has always had to be teased out of the numbers provided by the society. And the number leaving has always been lots higher than was at first apparent. What was apparent was that the society was hemmoraging membership.

Add to that the number of persons raised in the "truth" who refused to stay there and the hemmorage becomes truly significant.

So I certainly agree with you, the handwriting is really on the wall for the Borg. They have been weighed in the balance and found wanting. I hope to see the end of the organization in my lifetime. As in Russia, perhaps what will happen is that the membership will dwindle down to a precious few, and that few will be the old folk, usually the women, the babushkas of the Borg, doggedly hanging on because they don't know anything else. And they've spent a lifetime isolating themselves from their non-believing family, and they have no friends outside the organization. It's not going to be pretty.

OrangeBlossom

quote:
"Baptism numbers are more closely related to the number of youth who have been raised in the "truth" getting baptised."

I find that part of the problem in my neck of the woods (southeastern US). I know for my part, none of my 4 children are baptised, the oldest 2 are now adults and want nothing to do with the organization. Unfortunately, they want nothing to do with God, the bible or religion in general. They've seen too much hypocrisy. My oldest calls the Kingdom Hall the "go to learn how to be a hyporcrit place." Most of their friends, however, are kids that grew up in witness families and are no longer associated or disfellowshipped/disassociated.

Skimmer

The baptisms of children of members is also a part of the field service; the WTBTS sees it that way as far as counting bible studies, hours preached, and literature placed. The difference is that the audience in this case is somewhat captive; they can't close the door. At least until they move out of the house.

An intersting derived statistic is the conversion rate. This is nominally the number of baptisms divided by the number of bible studies. Some family bible studies may be with baptized members, but probably at least one person (and maybe more than one) in each of such is unbaptized. The WTBTS does not publish the total bible study count, but does give the average bible study count. Some bible studies may go on for years, but others may last only a few weeks. If we assume that a bible study lasts about one year, then the conversion rate for 2000 was:

(baptism count) / (average bible studies) = 288907 / 4766631 = 0.0606

So about six percent of bible studies lead to a baptism. Just slightly less than one out of sixteen.

Conversion rates for some (mostly) English speaking countries:

Australia: 8.23%
Britain: 7.31%
Canada: 6.99%
Ireland: 7.75%
New Zealand: 6.98%
United States: 7.13%

All of the above are higher than the average. Are study conductors in these countries more efficient? Perhaps so, although the baptism count overall trend for each of the above is not encouraging (to the WTBTS, at least).

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Another list: "lands" with ZERO baptisms in 2000:

American Samoa
Anguilla
Azerbajan
Comoros
Falkland Islands
Libya
Liechtenstein
Mayotte
Montserrat
Nauru
Nevis
Niue
Norfolk Island
Saba
St. Eustatius
St. Pierre & Miquelon
Tinian
Tokelau

ozziepost

G'day AK,

Field service is finished in Australia

Do you mean finished, as in 'ended'; or perhaps finished, as in 'doomed'?

We don't really understand you. If you mean that it no longer exists, you are reporting falsely.

BTW why have you pinched Randy's logo?

Remember that this ozzie is a member of the truth in advertising class.

Cheers,
Ozzie

Freedom is not having to wear a tie.

Roamingfeline

Field service isn't Quite dead in Australia. Two of them were at my door less than a month ago!

RCat

MacHislopp

Hello Skimmer,

never mind all the various implications…it depends from which
side you are looking from, … a very good and well searched post -.

Thanks, agape, J.C. MacHislopp

The handwriting on the wall

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