The truth about WT 'growth' figures

by willyloman 5 Replies latest jw friends

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  willyloman

  Any discussion of the WTS' numbers and the "growth" these numbers suggest has to take into account the inconsistency built in to their counting methods.
  

  Counting time in field service is totally arbitrary. You won't find a memo anywhere that specificies exactly how such time is to be determined; it's left up to the individual. The method of counting time is determined by all sorts of whims. One person's 45 minutes is another's 3 hours. Traveling overseers know this, thus the WTS knows it. Yet they present the number of hours in the annual report as a precise figure and hail the fact that "over one billion hours" were spent in the field ministry last year. The number of magazines placed, return visits made, etc., are often made up on the spot by publishers responding to an urgent phone call asking them for numbers for a report for which the deadline has come and gone. These numbers, too, are categorized and published as factual.

  Counting attendance at assemblies is also arbitrary. Some brothers attempt to count individuals in seats while others determine the total number of seats that exist and subtract the empty ones to get attendance. Some attendees who are out walking around or in the rest room don't get counted, but estimates are often added back in to account for these. Also, those counting will often count everyone, including babies and small children; the number in attendance is obviously far higher than the number of attendees who are baptized. Even "visitors" are counted in the total. This is especially true at the Memorial, where those taking the count are acutely aware of how important it is to maximize these numbers for the annual tally -- which is then presented as a precise number.

  In summary, everywhere a count is taken, it's clear that the numbers are "cooked." So why should anyone believe ANY of these numbers, including those in the annual report related to "peak publishers" or "average publishers" and percentage of growth?

  This is the very Society that in one of its study publications makes the point that if someone has lied to you often, you naturally wouldn't believe anything else they tell you, whereas is someone has always been completely honest with you, there is a high likelihood they are always telling the truth.

  Does anyone really expect the WTS to publish a report that shows they're losing as many people as are coming in and that the numbers are down (again)? Won't happen. These numbers are about as accurate as the circulation figures for "free" newspapers that are thrown on the driveway or left in open racks in grocery stores. The actual circulation of those periodicals? It's whatever the publishers say it is.
• 

  metatron

  and then there's fake publishers like me!

  You can discern a picture of reality behind the stats:

  They're worried about what would happen if they published zero growth

  They aren't getting enough contributions to support the organization.

  They have no inspired, original, or 'breakthrough' response to the decay that's growing, other than cut corners

  to make the numbers ( 15 minute publishers, 70 hour regular pioneers) look good.

  They are still oblivious to the massive exodus of young people out of the 'truth'.

  metatron
• 

  Gopher

  The ENRON corporation inflated its profit figures in order to try to fool investors and employees, and to keep their company afloat. Temporarily. Then their balloon got punctured, and it set off a corporate accounting scandal that hampered the American economy during 2002.

  The WATCHTOWER corporation inflates its attendance and growth figures in order to try to fool its slave workers (a.k.a. publishers) into thinking that they have a healthy, growing organization. Unfortunately, they are not really accountable to anybody for the inflation in their growth figures. So such numeric sleight-of-hand will continue, because it works to the Watchtower Society's advantage.

  Someday they'll probably lower the monthly requirements for auxiliary pioneers to 30 hours per month from the current 50 hours, and then proclaim that God has blessed them due to a 50% increase in the number of auxiliary pioneers.
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  jws

  The numbers the society publishes as fact are innaccurate for many of the reasons you describe. And without using extraordinary methods, some things cannot be counted exactly. But that's not just them. That's everywhere in the world around us. "Approximate" is about the best you can do. How many people attended a concert? Even with tickets, that's hard to nail down exactly. How many snuck in? How many had to leave?

  As long as a fairly consistent method of measuring is used, you can probably still compare figures. If, for example, the attendants always try to count attendance at an assembly at 20 minutes into the public address, you're probably going to have the same percentage of people not in their seats. So you aren't accurate. But from year to year, you can measure whether the people in their seats at 20 minutes in rose or fell.

  Even with field service. If brother A starts his time as soon as he leaves the hall and includes coffee breaks, as long as he's consistent, his time can be compared to last year. Same for the person who measures from the first door to the last and takes out anything not related to field service.
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  willyloman

  jws: You're right, of course, and sometimes it doesn't matter what the real numbers are, if all you are doing is comparing relative attendance, participation, etc. However, these qualifications go out the window when fraud is uncovered.

  This board is full of posts by people who are still active but "fake" their field service reports. Others have supplied anecdotal evidence of a huge discrepancy in the way people "count" their time. The obvious conclusion is that the time published by the WTS in its annual report is, therefore, bogus. More than that, they are bogus by an enormous factor. Does each hour counted in field service equal half an hour of "real time?" Or only 10 minutes? Or five? Or less? What does that do to the "billion hours a year" fantasy report? Your argument, as I understand it, is: So what? The numbers are only off by the same margin as before, and still relative. I disagree. I NEVER used to fake my numbers. I was secretary for years and only a handful of people were "winging it" when they turned in their time. Today the situation is far more casual. I can assure you: Today's hours are yesterday's minutes.

  Therefore, ALL the other numbers are suspect.
• 

  DanTheMan

  Divide a billion hours per year by the number of disciples gained (around 275,000 last year right?) and you have about 3600 hours per baptism. Then figure that probably half of the baptisms are people raised JW, and what you end up with is a colossal waste of time and resources.

  Field service is just a reinforcing technique, any disciples gained is just a byproduct.