WT 2-1-05 2004 Service Year Report

Bluegrass Tom

Here is some analysis that you won't hear anybody say at the WT study on March 13, 2005 when the 2004 Service Year Report is discussed.

USA

In 1993 there were 926,914 peak publishers. In 2004 there are 1,019,696 peak publishers. This would appear to be an increase over the 10 year period. However in this period 410,828 were baptized. This would mean that the 1993 peak of 926,914 should have grown to 1,328,742. If that theoretical total is adjusted for a death rate of 1% it changes to 1,315,455. That is approximately how many publishers there should be in the USA. But there are 1,019,696. This means that something happened to 295,759 publishers (1,315,455-1,019,696). This is a decline to me not an increase. Lets look at Britain, Germany and France.

Britain

In 1993 there were 127, 395 peak publishers. In 2004 there are 125, 546. This is a straight decrease of 1,849.If you add in the number baptized of the period which is 39,863 the number becomes a decrease of 41,712, unadjusted for a deathrate. This is a decrease of 32.7% since 1993.

France

In 1993 there were 122,254 peak publishers. In 2004 there are 118,228. This is a straight decrease of 4, 026.If you add in the number baptized of the period which is 38,852 the number becomes a decrease of 42,878, unadjusted for a deathrate. This is a decrease of 35.0% since 1993.

Germany

In 1993 there were 166,505 peak publishers. In 2004 there are 165,201. This is a straight decrease of 1,304.If you add in the number baptized of the period which is 53,061 the number becomes a decrease of 54365, unadjusted for a deathrate. This is a decrease of 32.6% since 1993.

It is clear to me from studying this subject (the above is but a small sampler of data) that there is a general decline in membership. The Great Crowd came and went. I don't see too meny converts coming in. I think most of the baptisms are the children of believers, who leave sometime in adolescence or young adulthood. 1975, the generation, a world that has not shown any signs of ending, a robust global economy, and information available from the internet is changing how people think and assisting them in re-evaluating what they are doing.

Bonnie_Clyde

Other than children getting baptized, I wonder if the increase in the USA could be the result of the push now to learn a foreign language so that we can witness to foreigners that come into the country. I heard a comment from the platform at a circuit assembly that many foreigners were listening to the message who would not have listened in their native country.

I personally know of several sisters who pride themselves in mastering a new language. In fact there is a congregation in our circuit that has a meeting in Chinese. I know they feel they really have God's blessing, and they are really shown a lot of attention, especially at circuit assemblies. Kind of keeps their minds busy in the same way the the Quick Build Kingdom Halls kept people busy so they wouldn't have time to look at anything outside of the organization.

JustTickledPink

Also consider we have a lot of immigrants, a lot of spanish speaking immigrants too here in the USA.

The decline is going to continue I have no doubts about that. As the older generations die off in the next 20-30 years I think we will see the sharpest declines.

doinmypart

In the southern U.S. Spanish congregations are growing. A few publishers are leaving English-speaking congregations to "help out" in the Spanish congregations.

A Spanish congregation in a nearby circuit has approximately 60 baptized publishers and 90 people studying and attending, this does not include children.

Brothers giving public talks in Spanish congregations travel between AR, OK, TN, TX just to give a 45 minute talk. Spanish is growing but there aren't enough qualified (illegal immigrant) Spanish brothers to be appointed MS or Elder.

The Hispanic/Latino community is a close-knit one. While the WTS is experiencing growth in this area I wonder what will happen when an Hispanic/Latino family member gets DF/DA. I don't think they'll be as quick to shun family members, perhaps the numbers will decrease as quickly as they increased.

keeshah

Just curious as to how the JW illegal immigrants justify breaking man's law by living in the US?

My dryer broke yesterday and I had to go to the laudramat. I was SO looking forward to getting some spiritual food! NOT! Anyway, the only ~~mags~~ rags there were in spanish. I picked them up and threw them in the trash. I found a tract (spanish too) on the bullentin board that showed Jesus saying "no thanks" (in body language) to all the governments of the world. LOL! Stupid hypocrits! That one found the trash can too.

Poztate

Here is some analysis that you won't hear anybody say at the WT study on March 13, 2005 when the 2004 Service Year Report is discussed.

You got that right.The most positive of spins will be put on this info.The downturns prove we must be close since the love of the greater number is cooling off.

The upturns prove that jah is blessing our efforts in the final few weeks or months (not years) before "A"

Everyone will leave that meeting with a warm little glow knowing that things are working out just the way that was planned