Posts by darkspilver

3

Another JW factoid.

by DATA-DOG in

i went to visit my parents recently, and my mom went for the kh.

well...she told me that the visiting speaker from "po-dunk" usa, related a factoid.

of course it was "da troof" to her, but my demonic, critical-thinking mind started dissecting the account.

darkspilver

Hmmm

If you're in the US, then as Xanthippe says above - the US had their first clean air act introduced then: The Air Pollution Control Act of 1955

BUT, of course, the very reason it was introduced was because of low air quality before 1955 (!!) - ie the 1948 Donora Smog

Could it though be a mash-up of the following??....

Awake 22 April 1971, page 20 - Can Man Solve the Problem?

A few streams, a lake here and there, the air over a few cities—that is the extent of success man has had in trying to reverse the disastrous trend. What of the overall situation?
Facing the overall situation realistically, there is little ground for optimism. For example, look what happened in New York city. Back in 1955 its air pollution commissioner predicted: “In 10 years, our city will be a good place to inhale in.” A researcher also predicted: “By 1965 the air breathed by a man crossing 42nd St. will be as fresh as the air in a Swiss mountain pass.”
Persons living in New York city today would call those predictions ridiculous. New York air is so heavily polluted now that much of the time it is rated either ‘unsatisfactory’ or ‘unhealthy.’ Those optimistic predictions were not based on reality.

I understand that the above Awake! was a 'special' with articles in the whole issue devoted to the front page theme: "Earth's Future - Garbage Dump or Garden Home?"

BUT the only public talk outline reference to the magazine issue is in the introduction of Public Talk 14 - and it isn't really related

14: A CLEAN PEOPLE HONORS JEHOVAH

PHYSICAL CLEANNESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SPIRITUAL ACCEPTABLENESS
Jehovah is a holy God (it-1 1127 para 17)
He is profaned by uncleanness, physical or spiritual (Isa 1:16)
Israelites had to wash themselves and their clothing for awesome assembly at Mount Sinai (Ex 19:10, 11)
Aaron and his sons had to wash with water from large copper basin before serving in the tent of meeting (Ex 29:4; 30:18, 19)
Cleanness in the Israelite camp was required by the holy God (De 23:10-14; g81 5/8 14; g71 4/22 28)

12

About 1.8 Millions disfellowshipped since 1981 and about 1.3 Million still are!

by StephaneLaliberte in

this means that for every 6 publishers, there is a disfellowshipped person.

this statistic doesn't take into account all of the kids that become/removed as publishers and receive a similar treatment from their family.

conclusion: jehovah's witnesses do break up families.

darkspilver

darkspilver: I like your logic... I'm adding this thread to my notes!

cool, you too.

I think the broadbrush 'take-home' from this is two-fold:

Firstly, as was highlighted in the OP - is that there is a significant number of disfellowshipped ones still alive, particularly compared to current active publishers, around 1-in-6.

I suspect gb2.0 are worried about this, and is perhaps why they're pushing limiting association with these ones - BUT also consider....

Secondly, compare the ratio of baptisms with apparent disfellowshippings

In 1993 there where 296,004 baptisms - and 40,000 disfellowshipped (1-in-7.4)

In 2016 there where 264,535 baptisms - and 72,547 disfellowshipped (1-in-3.6)

These numbers also don't bode well for WT either...

12

About 1.8 Millions disfellowshipped since 1981 and about 1.3 Million still are!

by StephaneLaliberte in

this means that for every 6 publishers, there is a disfellowshipped person.

this statistic doesn't take into account all of the kids that become/removed as publishers and receive a similar treatment from their family.

conclusion: jehovah's witnesses do break up families.

darkspilver

slimboyfat - yes, there's ALOT of unknowns, I was just trying to replicated how StephaneLaliberte worked it out.

you calculated the third Reinstated at the very end while I calculated it every year.

StephaneLaliberte - Ah right, I see you're trying to do a completely different calculation to me, but that's cool - I was just doing disfellowshippings as per the post title

Because there are too many unknowns, I believe it is safest to go with the simplist calculation to work out total disfellowshippings.

We know the number of publishers each year
We have a percentage for annual disfellowshipping from the above number (though that would be varible year-to-year)
Reinstatements - as I understand it would take at least 12 months before someone is reinstated, and they would therefore be included in the following year/s publisher number - therefore you shouldn't make allowance for them being reinstated (ie being reinstated with in the same service year)

Anyway, cool question to ask is:

How many disfellowshipped people could there be ALIVE today? 1,482,272

Although that figure does not make allowance for people being disfellowshipped more than once, so in reality the figure would be slightly less, BUT it also assumes there were NO disfellowshipped people prior to 1981 who are still alive - so the two sides probably balance out?

I worked the figure out using a crude death rate of 8.1 deaths per 1,000 per year (and that's compounded!!!)

So, I think it works out as follows:

12

About 1.8 Millions disfellowshipped since 1981 and about 1.3 Million still are!

by StephaneLaliberte in

this means that for every 6 publishers, there is a disfellowshipped person.

this statistic doesn't take into account all of the kids that become/removed as publishers and receive a similar treatment from their family.

conclusion: jehovah's witnesses do break up families.

darkspilver

How are you working that out?

I have a 'base-line' to use for 1993 using the following

Watchtower 1 April 1994, page 16, paragraph 8
Each year about 40,000 individuals are disfellowshipped from Jehovah’s organization.

I make a total of 1,708,635 total disfellowshipped.

Using your one third reinstated (569,544), but ignoring being disfellowshipped twice etc

I end up with 1,139,091 remaining disfellowshipped.

And, of course, due to dying, the actual number of disfellowshipped ones actually alive currently would be less

37

April 2017 Study Watchtower encourages you to defy The Society !

by BluesBrother in

at least, that is how i see it... the article "the judge of all the earth always does what is right".

paragraph 6 & 7 .

6 consider the experience of willi diehl.

darkspilver

Hey tepidpoultry

that's next Sunday at the Holy Trinity in Dalston, London - Sunday 5 February 2017 - annual service in honor of Grimaldi

42

Baumgartner - Dr. Mark Morehart: State of Washington Appeal Court - aborted use of cell saver machine

by darkspilver in

for information:.

court of appeals of the state of washingtondivision iidocket number: 48070-1file date: 01/24/2017.

keisha baumgartner appeals the summary judgment dismissal of her medical malpractice wrongful death claim against anesthesiologist dr. mark morehart and columbia anesthesia group, p.s.

darkspilver

Your issue is with the FDA

Er, no it's not - if anything it's with the commerical company Medilab regarding how are using a very narrow definition of 'defect' to mean 'fatality' rather than the accepted broader definition as below - and as actual fatalities are low, this obscures the real risks (as per link at end).

A six sigma safety rating is the equivalent to the occurrence of 3.4 defects per million opportunities - a defect is everything that does not meet customer requirements such as even staying in the hospital one day longer than required or a mistake during the procedure.
https://www.isixsigma.com/industries/healthcare/six-sigma-powerful-strategy-healthcare-providers/

Anyway, cool that you're familiar with the SHOT reports - anybody interested can read it and make their own mind up - and I'll leave it as that.

http://www.ascls-and.org/pdf/14-04-18/7_Transfusion%20Safety%20and%20Blood%20Management%20Specialists.pdf

37

April 2017 Study Watchtower encourages you to defy The Society !

by BluesBrother in

at least, that is how i see it... the article "the judge of all the earth always does what is right".

paragraph 6 & 7 .

6 consider the experience of willi diehl.

darkspilver

Has anyone heard of anyone else losing privileges because of getting married?

It's possible - basic principle is they both have to apply 'again' and they may not be accepted.

Hence the Branch Organization Manual states:

Missionaries
Marriage: If a single field missionary becomes engaged to be married, he or she should inform the branch office right away. If the field missionary indicates that he or she wishes to continue in the missionary work along with his or her prospective mate, the branch should immediately request a confidential Personal Qualifications Report (S-326) from the missionary's body of elders and one from his or her circuit overseer.
If the prospective mate lives in the branch territory, the branch may send him or her a Questionnaire for Prospective Field Missionary (S-214} to fill out. In addition, the prospective mate's body of elders and circuit overseer should be asked to complete separate Personal Qualifications Reports (S-326). The Branch Committee will review the missionary's qualifications and those of his or her prospective mate, taking into consideration the reputation and the physical health and stamina of each one. Whether favourable or otherwise, all the reports (translated into English) along with the Branch Committee's recommendation and the prospective mate's S-214 questionnaire should be submitted to the Service Committee, which will make the final decision.
If the prospective mate does not live in the branch territory, the Branch Committee should submit the S-326 reports for the missionary to the Service Committee along with its recommendation based on the Branch Committee's knowledge of the missionary. In turn, the Service Committee will obtain the needed reports from the prospective mate's branch office. In all cases, the Service Committee will make the final decision as to whether someone continues as a field missionary following his or her marriage.

Similiar principle for Special Pioneers, Circuit Overseers and Bethelites

Interestingly for Special Pioneers and Circuit Overseer there are additional requirements...

The prospective mate should be at least 21 years old, baptized three years or longer, in full-time service for at least two years, in good health, and able to maintain an active schedule. If there is a great difference in age between the two who are planning to marry, the Branch Committee should consider carefully whether this would cause negative talk or be a stumbling block to others.

42

Baumgartner - Dr. Mark Morehart: State of Washington Appeal Court - aborted use of cell saver machine

by darkspilver in

for information:.

court of appeals of the state of washingtondivision iidocket number: 48070-1file date: 01/24/2017.

keisha baumgartner appeals the summary judgment dismissal of her medical malpractice wrongful death claim against anesthesiologist dr. mark morehart and columbia anesthesia group, p.s.

darkspilver

Ah right, so based purely on fatality as being the one 'defect' that is counted - that's apparently completely different to how it's worked out as per my original website reference:

A six sigma safety rating is the equivalent to the occurrence of 3.4 defects per million opportunities - a defect is everything that does not meet customer requirements such as even staying in the hospital one day longer than required or a mistake during the procedure.
https://www.isixsigma.com/industries/healthcare/six-sigma-powerful-strategy-healthcare-providers/

Again, according to SHOT, it seems unlikely that even merely donating blood reaches a six sigmas level according to the above.

http://www.shotuk.org

You really should read their annual report - 190 pages - I'm sure you'll appreciate it and how far ranging and comprehensive the data is and how it is broken down.

37

April 2017 Study Watchtower encourages you to defy The Society !

by BluesBrother in

at least, that is how i see it... the article "the judge of all the earth always does what is right".

paragraph 6 & 7 .

6 consider the experience of willi diehl.

darkspilver

Cool, that's interesting - also interesting to note that the April 2017 article misses out the last sentence from the original life story...

Watchtower 1 November 1991 - Jehovah Is My God, in Whom I Will Trust AS TOLD BY WILLI DIEHL

Graduation of the eighth class of Gilead was February 9, 1947, and suspense ran high. Where would we be sent? For me, “the measuring lines” fell on the Society’s newly opened printery at Wiesbaden, Germany. (Psalm 16:6) I returned to Bern to apply for necessary papers, but the U.S. occupation forces in Germany were permitting entry only to persons who had lived there before the war. Since I had not, I needed a new assignment from Brooklyn headquarters. It turned out to be circuit work in Switzerland, which I accepted with full trust in Jehovah. But while awaiting this assignment, I was asked one day to show the Bethel premises to three visiting sisters. One of them was a pioneer named Marthe Mehl.
In May 1949, I informed headquarters in Bern that I planned to marry Marthe and that we desired to remain in full-time service. The reaction? No privileges other than regular pioneering. This we started in Biel, following our wedding in June 1949. I was not permitted to give talks, nor could we look for accommodations for delegates to a forthcoming assembly, even though we had been recommended by our circuit overseer for this privilege. Many no longer greeted us, treating us like disfellowshipped persons, even though we were pioneers.
We knew, however, that getting married was not unscriptural, so we took refuge in prayer and put our trust in Jehovah. Actually, this treatment did not reflect the Society’s view. It was simply a result of the misapplication of organizational guidelines.

20

Witness weddings

by dothemath in

recently went to a witness wedding, and after the vows the bride and groom were introduced as "brother and sister".....(then last name).....(then the big kiss).

this is likely not unusual (i've heard it before), but with lots of "worldly" people in attendance it seems out of place to me.. i was just wondering if that's the way it is most places?.

darkspilver

What was that with a "wedding shower"? It is not the custom here thank goodness and I thought such displays of materialism were frowned on ...

Yeah, totally weird - that's why I posted it