1. Agreed - we've seen many new ones on the forum cite one broadcast or another as their final straw. This is definitely having, at best, a polarizing effect on the R/F.
2. Probably not so much. For one thing the TMS getting eliminated happened after the end of the service year so it would have no impact on numbers. The elimination of bookstudy probably has had a small impact, but not because people are unhappy with the reduced emphasis on teaching, but more because there's less indoctrination and that will allow a few to break free.
3. Agreed - When the cart witnessing was introduced I didn't know TTATT, but it struck me as very cult-like and seemed like busy work that would not be productive at all. This, along with the general apathy about being productive in the ministry, was difficult to reconcile with the idea that we're preaching to save lives and that its the most important work to be done.
4. Not sure. I think a lot of JWs get caught up in the "easy time" that they get from just dropping off flyers and not having to talk to people as much that they don't realize how stupid the whole affair is. Maybe those who are seriously doubting already, but this doesn't seem like one of those things that would be someone's final straw.
5. Not sure on this one either. I don't know that I would say that JWs have gotten any poorer in the last few years, so I don't think this really accounts for the stagnation/decline. If anything I've seen more and more JWs pursuing better jobs because, on some level, they're aware of the possibility that the cult could be wrong about the nearness of armageddon.
6. Definitely. There's always new and more interesting things going on in the world and the "distractions" will only grow while the cult recruitment stays largely the same. Another aspect of the apathy, I think, is that the response from the ministry is dwindling to nothing. No one likes to feel like they're wasting their time, and when someone does feel that they are the typical response is to give up.