It will have to be an ongoing study. Ideally in 5 years we should redo it. The ratio of years in over years potentially in (window of opportunity to get out) is what should be studied. For example, now the people who were baptized in 2000 have had 15 years to come out. Let's say 100 people baptized in 2000 respond, and their average length inside was 8 years. In 5 years, more peoplewill have come out. Some baptized in 2000 might take a bit longer to come out, and so the average will increase, let's say, to 9.5 years. More from 1990, 1980, 1970, etc will come out, and their average will also increase. Now we could compare the average of 2000-2020 vs the average of 1980-2000. If the averages remain similar, then it will show that people's length of stay in the watchtower is purely random. But if these averages are going down, then that would mean that people's length of stay within the watchtower is getting shorter. The sad part is, among 130+ replies, the average stay in is close to two decades (and I strictly count from baptism to awakening).
ILoveTTATT2
JoinedPosts by ILoveTTATT2
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155
Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized
by ILoveTTATT2 inhi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
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155
Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized
by ILoveTTATT2 inhi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
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ILoveTTATT2
Thank you so much for your responses!
Maybe this can be an ongoing thread, with many responses that will, at the very least, give an idea of when people came in and when people are coming out.Thanks!
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155
Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized
by ILoveTTATT2 inhi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
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ILoveTTATT2
Hi Mephis,
So essentially 0 years? Can you estimate perhaps the months?
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155
Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized
by ILoveTTATT2 inhi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
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ILoveTTATT2
Here are the stats using around 130 data points.
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155
Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized
by ILoveTTATT2 inhi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
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ILoveTTATT2
I am interested in doing this as best as possible.
An average is not necessarily half-way in a data set, it all depends on its distribution.
If something has a 50-50 chance, like a flip of a coin, the law of large numbers says that if you flip a coin enough times, you will have a 50-50 chance of getting heads or tail.
If you are right with your math, calculating exactly half for the time difference, then that means that JW's going out of the religion is purely random and has a normal distribution. This would be really discouraging if found to be true, since there would be no factor that influences the exit of JW's. But our intuition tells us otherwise, and I hope to show it with data.I have thought about it, and just the formula was wrong. The formula should be:
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Obama to speak from the Oval Office tonight (8:00 eastern)
by Coded Logic inthis will be only the 3rd time he's spoken from the oval office in his seven years so it's probably going to be something pretty big.
combat troops being sent into syria?
unilateral movement on gun control?.
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ILoveTTATT2
A 100,000,000 state solution would give peace to the middle east. Each person gets 1 square meter. -
155
Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized
by ILoveTTATT2 inhi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
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ILoveTTATT2
No Oubliette. If I had made a similar survey in 1985 regarding the people baptized in the 1970's, it is possible that the average response would be closer to the 15 years difference. Since 2000 we have had 15 years, and the average response is less than 10 years from baptism.
The ones baptized in the 90's had an average of 15 years... And it's been 25-15 (depending on how you see the numbers).
There is going to be a "triangle", and that "triangle" is reducing.
To completely confirm my hypothesis, a repeat study including all of the ones who exited from 2015-2020 would be necessary. But I predict that it will be the same average or lower (i.e those baptized in 2010 will start showing up around 2017 or so).
If I am proven right, then the data will be a wonderful confirmation of the power of the availability of information.
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155
Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized
by ILoveTTATT2 inhi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
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ILoveTTATT2
I am giving this lots of thought.
The people who are out now and came in the 2000's are coming out faster, and here's why I claim that:
Let's say I get 100 responses from people that were baptized in 1970, and 100 responses of people baptized in the 2000's. Then we can compare. If the average of the 1970 group is 20 years (i.e. most left in the 90's), and the average of the 2000's group is 10, meaning most left in 2010, then the statement that the exit is speeding up is valid.
Given that I am discounting the ones that are in automatically, what this study shows is that,
"The current exJW community who is actively online shows a pattern of decreasing time spent inside the borg."
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155
Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized
by ILoveTTATT2 inhi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
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ILoveTTATT2
Yes Simon, and yet we have quite a few who were baptized in the 70's, left in the 90's, and are still on JWN. -
155
Survey: How long were you in the cult vs what year you were baptized
by ILoveTTATT2 inhi people,.
i want as much data as possible on the effect of the internet on the time captured by the cult.. please answer the three following questions about yourself or about someone you know (for example, if your parents or grandparents were jw's and left).
1) were you raised as a jw, or did you convert?.
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ILoveTTATT2
Thank you!
Please keep answering if you haven't!
I was told by a friend that my premise is wrong, and I have thought about it and will solve the problem.
The graph will ALWAYS be linear because the maximum number of years one could have spent in the borg increases linearly...
i.e a person who was baptized in 2000 and came out in 2015 stayed in 15 years.
A person who was baptized in 1999 and got out in 2015 stayed in 16 years.
17 for 1998, 18 for 1997, etc.
So the maximum number of years in possible increases linearly, and obviously changes each year.
So to fix that and see true results I need to compare the number of years in to the maximum possible years in.
i.e. If a person was baptized in 1950 and only stayed until 1958, it is obvious that the WT held them a lot less stronger than a person who stayed until 2000, i.e. 50 years out of the possible 65.
If I take the difference, and still there is a downward trend, then that factor will be removed.
The other factor that people have mentioned is lack of access to the internet or death of those baptized in earlier decades compared to now. The thought is that most of the answers will be of people who access the internet and are exJW's, which will be the younger generation.
I beg to differ. I have had lots of responses from people baptized in the 70's, 80's, and 90's.
Yet another factor mentioned was that people from the 2000's may yet come out. That may be true, but the data is showing that there is less variability in the responses of the people baptized after 2000. This means that the data has even more of a predictive power than in previous decades, and the difference in years between in and out IS shortening significantly.
The average for the people in the 50's to the 90's is around 20 years, the average post 2000 is less than 10 years.
