Posts by slimboyfat

7

Change of the 2 Baptismal Questions Soon?

by The Fall Guy in

q1 - on the basis of the sacrifice of jesus christ, have you dedicated yourself to god & the governing body?.

q2 - do you understand that your dedication and baptism as one of jehovah's witnesses identifies your belief the wtbts's literature is equal in authority with the bible?

having answered yes to these questions, candidates are in a right heart condition sufficiently brain-dead to undergo christian jw.borg baptism..

slimboyfat

They have a loyalty oath in effect whenever the elders corner a doubter and ask if they still believe in the faithful slave.

110

If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

by nowwhat? in

i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

The WTS is a former publishing house that is currently selling its assets to survive. That can’t last forever. Plus lawsuits, plus growth in poor countries and decline in rich countries, and so on... it is in a far worse position than other churches.

And as a matter of fact the Catholic Apostolic Church collapsed despite being rich because of its end time doctrine. It still has assets but no members.

It is simply a non-sequitur to say that because JWs haven’t collapsed in the past therefore they won’t collapse in the future. Or that because it had the resources to survive in 1925 that it will have the resources to survive the current crisis. These are bad logical errors.

110

If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

by nowwhat? in

i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

slimboyfat

And did the WTS collapse then?

That’s a stupid argument, if I may say so. The WTS very nearly did collapse after 1925 in particular. The fact that they escaped on that ocassion, or other ocassions, does not make them invincible forever, no more than me avoiding dying on various ocassions in the past means I will never die in the future. The relevant facts are that religions decline and collapse all the time (I cited about a dozen examples) and all the evidence indicates JWs are set to follow.

110

If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

by nowwhat? in

i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

slimboyfat

Probably the best objective measures of JW growth are census results and both Canada and Australia show clear declines. If we had comparable data from other countries we would have a clearer picture of what is really happening.

Many countries in Europe are declining by Watchtower's own measurement too. Especially in Germany and Eastern Europe congregation numbers and publishers are down.

Even growth in Africa has not prevented worldwide figures dropping. JWs have not experienced such bad figures outside of the prophetic failures in 1914, 1925 and 1975. And never has such a drop lasted so long or looked so likely to continue and get worse.

The collapse deniers can continue for a while with their denials. But time and facts are not on their side.

18

Transferring Congregations

by optimisticskeptic in

what is included in the publisher cards and other information when you transfer from one congregation to another?

i was privately reproved and may be moving to a congregation where there are brothers i rather not know why i was privately reproved.

is the fact i was privately reproved visible but not the reason why?

slimboyfat

Nasty people with nasty rules. But I've got an idea. How about just approaching one of your current elders and saying this:

"Can I talk with you please? You know I was reproved for [........] a while ago? Well I may be moving congregations soon and I wanted to ask the elders from this congregation if you would not mention the reproof to the new congregation. It happened a while ago now, the matter is behind me and I would rather forget it. It would really help me emotially and spiritually if the elders could reassure me this matter is in the past and I don't need to think about it in the new congregation. Thank you for listening to my concern."

Who knows, they might appreciate the candour. And if not they are Pharisaical idiots who would likely have gossiped about you anyway.

110

If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

by nowwhat? in

i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

slimboyfat

shepherdless means the new branch at Chelmsford

Watchtower will abandon it, like the Romans before them.

https://youtu.be/LTiGC7WPacw

27

JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

by shepherdless in

about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

slimboyfat

The vast majority of JWs I know share two features:

1. They or their parents (or other relative) joined JWs in the period 1950 to 1980.

2. They joined shortly after moving home to a new location.

I think the postwar period provided a concatenation of circumstances that fostered JW growth, but the chief factors were disruptive migrations prompted by the labour market, combined with secularisation which weakened ties with the traditional churches.

The typical JW convert was a newly married housewife who had recently moved to a new location in the postwar years. They were not religious enough to instantly join a new church in their new home, but they were sufficiently religiously inclined to be receptive to JWs who called at the door. She often brought in her husband, children and other family, whose children, grandchildren, and extended families form the core of most congregations today.

110

If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

by nowwhat? in

i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

slimboyfat

Look at the following threads from 9-10 years ago which discussed it:

That's true there has long been an expectation on this forum that JWs would collapse or severely decline. And I was very skeptical. But the facts have changed and the indications of collapse have multiplied. Many countries are now in statistical decline even by Watchtower's own measure. Census results from Australia, Canada and elsewhere look even worse. Dozens of branches have closed, KHs and assembly halls sold, congregations merged. Publications have been abruptly abandoned in the face of financial crisis. Exposure of very poor abuse policies is beginning to go mainstream. This list is by no means exhaustive. The facts on the ground have changed since ten years ago, and decline is well underway by any reasonable assessment.

I like to compare JWs with the Catholic Apostolic Church and the New Apostolic Church. Look them up on Wikipedia. In the case of the Catholic Apostolic Church it became extinct within 100 years because of stubborn adherence to eschatological doctrine (overlapping generation anyone?). In the case of the New Apostolic Church they have only survived a significant prophetic disconfirmarion (search Botschaft New Apostolic Church) by denouncing parts of their history and implementing serious reform. It is not clear JW leadership is capable or willing to reform in this manner.

110

If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

by nowwhat? in

i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

slimboyfat

JW's wait for the end of the world, while ex-Jw's wait for the end of the JW.s. Both of which are not going to happen.

The two are not comparable. The end of the world is not a regular occurrence, whereas religious communities often experience collapse and/or steep decline: Shakers, Methodists in England, Catholic Apostolic Church, Christian Scientists, and the Worldwide Church of God, are some of the more dramatic examples. (Declines probably between 80 and 100% in less than 100 years) Significant declines also impact churches in the UK such as the Christadelphians, Anglicans, Church of Scotland, Salvation Army and more. (Declines probably between 50 and 80% in less than 100 years)

There are many indications that JWs are on a well trodden path of decline, and in fact that their trajectory looks to be dramatic decline. This observation results from a large amount of evidence and reasonable comparisons with the experience of other churches.

In fact I would go further and argue that there are a number of factors that make JWs particularly vulnerable to collapse above and beyond what has affected other churches. Which other church has relied so heavily on publishing for its income? Which other church has such bad child protection policies? Which other church has such incredibly unbelievable overlapping teachings? Which other church is likely to be as stubborn to change views on LGBT equality? These distinctive features (not unique, but distinctive, and unique in combination and for a religion of this size) of JW religion do not bode well for its near to medium term future.

110

If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

by nowwhat? in

i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

slimboyfat

Depends what you mean by mass exodus. I think there is certainly an unprecendeted number of people leaving JWs at the moment, for a number of reasons, and there are indications it will continue to get worse. Does that count as a mass exodus?

1. Most western countries are now flat or declining. This has not happened since the fallout after 1975 and in that case it only lasted a couple of years. This is a much deeper and enduring trend.

2. shepherdless has demonstrated that JWs are getting older. This change has occurred over the last 10 to 20 years and is highly significant because increasing age profiles of religions are invariably followed by declines in adherents. And the speed and extent of JW aging population is pretty dramatic, even when compared with data for such steeply declining religions as Methodism and Anglicanism in the UK. From having millions of adherents in 1950, on current trends there will be no Methodists left in the UK by 2050. In fact probably sooner than that. (I think 2033 was the estimate one sociologist gave)

3. It is harder than ever for JWs to actually believe JW teachings: 1914 is over a hundred years ago, overlapping generation makes no sense, the faithful slave teaching is changing and looks self serving and increasingly neurotic. And this comes at a time when all these issues, and others, are readily exposed online in many formats. JWs may have a talent for believing unlikely things, but even they may increasingly struggle with the burden of absurdities. Young people in particular.

4. Society itself is becoming increasingly secular and liberal. And it is becoming increasingly difficult for young JWs to maintain positions such as creationism and opposition to LGBT equality, in the face of evidence and prevailing opinion. Most don't think it's worth the bother and so most young JWs now leave the region.

5. Plus you've got the thousands of JWs who have been removed from bethel or special pioneers who have had monetary support removed.

Those are just a few factors. There are many more that indicate JWs are reaching a tipping point. The fact is that their growth is already the poorest it's been since 1975 and there are mulple indications it is going to get a whole lot worse. Does that count as a mass exodus?