slimboyfat

Joined

• started 531 topics
• posted 17,310 times   see topics posted on
• send a message

Posts by slimboyfat

• 
  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  The vast majority of JWs I know share two features:

  1. They or their parents (or other relative) joined JWs in the period 1950 to 1980.

  2. They joined shortly after moving home to a new location.

  I think the postwar period provided a concatenation of circumstances that fostered JW growth, but the chief factors were disruptive migrations prompted by the labour market, combined with secularisation which weakened ties with the traditional churches.

  The typical JW convert was a newly married housewife who had recently moved to a new location in the postwar years. They were not religious enough to instantly join a new church in their new home, but they were sufficiently religiously inclined to be receptive to JWs who called at the door. She often brought in her husband, children and other family, whose children, grandchildren, and extended families form the core of most congregations today.
• 
  110

  If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

  by nowwhat? in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

  once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

  and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Look at the following threads from 9-10 years ago which discussed it:

  That's true there has long been an expectation on this forum that JWs would collapse or severely decline. And I was very skeptical. But the facts have changed and the indications of collapse have multiplied. Many countries are now in statistical decline even by Watchtower's own measure. Census results from Australia, Canada and elsewhere look even worse. Dozens of branches have closed, KHs and assembly halls sold, congregations merged. Publications have been abruptly abandoned in the face of financial crisis. Exposure of very poor abuse policies is beginning to go mainstream. This list is by no means exhaustive. The facts on the ground have changed since ten years ago, and decline is well underway by any reasonable assessment.

  I like to compare JWs with the Catholic Apostolic Church and the New Apostolic Church. Look them up on Wikipedia. In the case of the Catholic Apostolic Church it became extinct within 100 years because of stubborn adherence to eschatological doctrine (overlapping generation anyone?). In the case of the New Apostolic Church they have only survived a significant prophetic disconfirmarion (search Botschaft New Apostolic Church) by denouncing parts of their history and implementing serious reform. It is not clear JW leadership is capable or willing to reform in this manner.
• 
  110

  If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

  by nowwhat? in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

  once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

  and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  JW's wait for the end of the world, while ex-Jw's wait for the end of the JW.s. Both of which are not going to happen.

  The two are not comparable. The end of the world is not a regular occurrence, whereas religious communities often experience collapse and/or steep decline: Shakers, Methodists in England, Catholic Apostolic Church, Christian Scientists, and the Worldwide Church of God, are some of the more dramatic examples. (Declines probably between 80 and 100% in less than 100 years) Significant declines also impact churches in the UK such as the Christadelphians, Anglicans, Church of Scotland, Salvation Army and more. (Declines probably between 50 and 80% in less than 100 years)

  There are many indications that JWs are on a well trodden path of decline, and in fact that their trajectory looks to be dramatic decline. This observation results from a large amount of evidence and reasonable comparisons with the experience of other churches.

  In fact I would go further and argue that there are a number of factors that make JWs particularly vulnerable to collapse above and beyond what has affected other churches. Which other church has relied so heavily on publishing for its income? Which other church has such bad child protection policies? Which other church has such incredibly unbelievable overlapping teachings? Which other church is likely to be as stubborn to change views on LGBT equality? These distinctive features (not unique, but distinctive, and unique in combination and for a religion of this size) of JW religion do not bode well for its near to medium term future.
• 
  110

  If you're expecting a mass exodus anytime soon, FORGET ABOUT IT!

  by nowwhat? in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.

  once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.

  and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Depends what you mean by mass exodus. I think there is certainly an unprecendeted number of people leaving JWs at the moment, for a number of reasons, and there are indications it will continue to get worse. Does that count as a mass exodus?

  1. Most western countries are now flat or declining. This has not happened since the fallout after 1975 and in that case it only lasted a couple of years. This is a much deeper and enduring trend.

  2. shepherdless has demonstrated that JWs are getting older. This change has occurred over the last 10 to 20 years and is highly significant because increasing age profiles of religions are invariably followed by declines in adherents. And the speed and extent of JW aging population is pretty dramatic, even when compared with data for such steeply declining religions as Methodism and Anglicanism in the UK. From having millions of adherents in 1950, on current trends there will be no Methodists left in the UK by 2050. In fact probably sooner than that. (I think 2033 was the estimate one sociologist gave)

  3. It is harder than ever for JWs to actually believe JW teachings: 1914 is over a hundred years ago, overlapping generation makes no sense, the faithful slave teaching is changing and looks self serving and increasingly neurotic. And this comes at a time when all these issues, and others, are readily exposed online in many formats. JWs may have a talent for believing unlikely things, but even they may increasingly struggle with the burden of absurdities. Young people in particular.

  4. Society itself is becoming increasingly secular and liberal. And it is becoming increasingly difficult for young JWs to maintain positions such as creationism and opposition to LGBT equality, in the face of evidence and prevailing opinion. Most don't think it's worth the bother and so most young JWs now leave the region.

  5. Plus you've got the thousands of JWs who have been removed from bethel or special pioneers who have had monetary support removed.

  Those are just a few factors. There are many more that indicate JWs are reaching a tipping point. The fact is that their growth is already the poorest it's been since 1975 and there are mulple indications it is going to get a whole lot worse. Does that count as a mass exodus?
• 
  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Another way of putting it:

  If there are 82,000 JWs and 40% are male and 60% are female (my estimate - what is the actual figure?) then that means:

  32.800 males

  and

  49,200 females

  5% of 32,800 is 1,640 boys

  and

  3.5% of 49,200 is 1,700 girls

  Which seems reasonably equal (as we might expect) and eliminates the apparent discrepancy between boys and girls (0-4) in the graph.
• 
  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  No sorry, what I wrote in the above message is wrong. (I mixed up total and male-only) But I leave it unedited in case you have already read it, and clarify here.

  I think I am approaching the solution here to the girl/boy problem. I will try and work it out again.

  It is a calculation and display problem.

  Consider that there can be 5% of JW males who are 0-4 and 3.5% of JW females who are 0-4, and yet they can be the same figure in absolute terms (2000 for example) just because there are more females overall than there are males. Because 3.5% of a larger number can be (probably is, in this case) the same as 5% of a smaller number.

  Plus iI I don't know how demographic trends are usually displayed, but if there is a huge discrepancy between males and females (as there is among JWs) then this should (one would think) be visible in the graph. Whereas in your graphs males and females look to cover the same area overall, just distributed differently. This perhaps involves calculating percentages using the whole population rather than by gender on each side. (The opposite of what I said in the previous message) I hope this makes sense!
• 
  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Hang on, I think there is a mistake here. Which explains the girl/boy apparent discrepancy.

  It seems that for each group you have calculated the percentage of (for example) men aged 20-24 as a percentage of the total population of JWs. Whereas you should have calculated the percentage of men aged 20-24 as a percentage of total male JWs only.

  You should also make sure the total area representing males is in proportion to the ratio of males to remales. For example, if JWs are 65% female to 35% male then the total area of the male bars should be only a little more than half the area covered by the female bars.

  This presentation would display the gender gap and eliminate the apparent infant girl/boy discrepancy.

  Do you follow,what I'm saying?
• 
  27

  JW Decline: additional data from Aust 2016 census

  by shepherdless in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  about 9 months ago, i started this thread:.

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6298997348106240/aust-2016-census-observations-jws-getting-older-more-kids-leaving-30-group-arent-returning.

  i have had a little spare time, so i thought i would present some of the data in a more user friendly manner, with some additional detail.. 1. median age.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Bless you shepherless - this is fascinating.

  Another measure of average is the mode. And looking at your data it looks like the average (mode) member of JWs in 2006 was a 50 year old woman, whereas in 2016 it was a 60 year old woman. This absolutely seems true in the UK. At assemblies 60 year old women are everywhere. There are tons of them.

  The discrepancy between male and female infants (0-4) just looks too large to make rational sense. If I had access to the data I'd be checking and double and triple checking for a mistake. This is the sort of statistical result that doesn't pass the "smell test" which is a proper part of any statistics analysis. It just looks wrong and I can't think of any good explanation for it.

  To clarify, when you talk about immigration, are you talking about net immigration? Because you cite the immigration figure and the increase, but don't mention any emigration figure.

  In Scotland I would say that, of the 1000 or so Adventists, 800 or more are immigrants from outside the United Kingdom. Mostly from Zimbabwe, Zambia, other African countries, Caribbean, Philippines, Russia, other Eastern Europe, in that rough order. If Australia is in any way similar then I think it would be very difficult to analyse SDA trends over time, in this particular format, or compare them with other groups. I'd rather choose a group like Mormons, Baptists, or Methodists, to compare with JWs. But maybe I reveal,my ignorance, without checking I don't know if Australia has many Baptists or Methodists.

  I'd also suggest that if you want to chart the trend of fertile females over time, it may be as well to exclude females under 14 as well as females over 40. I guess you could argue that females under 14 will be fertile in the future. But they are not yet, generally. And they may not be JWs by the time they are fertile. I doubt their exclusion would have a huge impact on the trend, but it may have some small effect.

  You are absolutely correct that POMI is a crucial target for activism (for those so minded) your evidence, everyday experience, and common sense confirm this observation.

  I find these developments absolutely fascinating. I'm just a bit disappointed that I suspect Watchtower will soon stop publishing their statistics in any format that allows their decline to be easily charted.

  But there will be census data from some countries such as Australia!
• 
  33

  Self indulgent attention whore thread....

  by _Morpheus in

  1. social
  2. current

  today is my birthday :) in happy to be able to say that guilt free!

  .

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  Happy birthday collapse denier.
• 
  16

  Any information about an apostate from the 30s?

  by paradiseseeker in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  here in spain we have just had a special visit from the central branch representative (well i'm not sure what his position is) and in his talk he mentioned an episode in which an apostate and his supporters were expelled from bethel in the early 30s under rutherford's rule.

  i didn't catch the name, it was something like "shutter" or "shulter".

  this event was mentioned to bring attention to a woman who was very close to this apostate and just because of that she was unfairly expelled from bethel as well, but she was "humble" and "content" enough to leave the matter on jehovah's hands and she was reaccepted in bethel after a while.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  slimboyfat

  What book is that?