Posts by slimboyfat

Morph you do realise that there’s no such thing as a congregation with one person? You are not even making sense, which always a good indication that it’s time to rethink your position. If you can’t explain your view without resorting to nonsense it should tell you something.

I just realised that one unrealistic part of the scenario I provided above is necessarily the reduction in pioneers. In reality I think pioneer numbers have increased in recent years. But once again this just shows you need to be careful with definitions and numbers. When I was young being a pioneer really meant something and often included people who significantly altered their work/family/life situations in order to spend considerable amounts of time going door to door. Nowadays there may be more pioneers but they are largely auxiliary pioneers who spend 50 hours or less per month, and they are mostly older people who don’t need to alter their life situations in any significant way in order to claim the badge of pioneer. They don’t even need to do all that much ministry these days because of carts. A whole generation of baby boomer JW have claimed the badge of “pioneer” as a sort of retirement pastime. Which is significantly different from what it used to be. So comparing raw numbers in this case, once again, is not comparing like with like.

38

How far will they go?

by Gorbatchov in

jw
friends

imagine: you have inside information that could destroy the watchtower corporations.. how far would they go to protect the assets?.

would they kill?

no strange question in blackwater etc days.. g..

slimboyfat

Sir82, why should individual publishers be the unit that defines growth or decline? I know this is an extremely difficult concept to challenge in our individualistic society, but it is difficult to justify when you really think about it. Not all individuals are equal. If you swap 100 zealous individuals for 100 who couldn’t care less, is that really equivalent?

Consider a scenario where you have a congregation of 50 publishers who are very zealous, half of them are pioneers, fifteen elders, broad range of ages, lots of ministry, over 100% attendance at meeting, Bible studies, fantastic donations and so on.

Same congregation, thirty years later, still 50 publishers (including 15 minute reports) now mostly older publishers, only 1 pioneer, 2 elders, hardly any ministry, only 70% at meetings, donations barely cover costs.

As a resul this congregation is merged with another congregation. According to your reckoning no “decline” as such has taken place here, because the publisher number is the same. Yet I think we are missing something pretty significant if we don’t observe that the merging of congregations in a scenario like this is, at a very deep and significant level, definitely an indication of “decline”. The interesting thing is, the scenario I described above is actually not far from the reality in some congregations!

The number of congregations is a much better indication of vitality, growth or decline, precisely because it measures much more than just the number of individuals involved, which frankly can be much more easily manipulated or misrepresented. It captures something of the level of commitment and direction of travel too. If you say “won’t the programme of consolidation give a false impression of decline?” My response is: the programme of consolidation is a result of massive decline.

9

What do you think?

by JRK in

jw
friends

if a decades-long apostate decides that they should marry a semi-active jw, what odds would you put on the viability of the marriage?

if not viable, how long before the shit would hit the fan?

jk.

slimboyfat

Entirely depends, I should imagine. Not enough information to go on.

38

How far will they go?

by Gorbatchov in

jw
friends

imagine: you have inside information that could destroy the watchtower corporations.. how far would they go to protect the assets?.

would they kill?

no strange question in blackwater etc days.. g..

slimboyfat

JWs have become increasingly lax in how they count publishers, counting 15 minutes, and elders filling reports on behalf of publishers. In one case the WT even admitted that a branch exaggerated the number of publishers to impress HQ!

The only extensive independent data we have on JWs comes from national censuses. For example in Canada there were 155,000 JWs in 2001 compared with 138,000 in 2011. Is that growth or decline? In Australia the census showed 83,400 JWs in 1996 compared with 82,500 in 2016. Is that growth or decline Morph?

In fact are there any census results, or other independent surveys that show JWs increasing? I would be interested to know.

Congregation numbers are an excellent way to measure the vitality of any religious community for the many reasons I have given before. That is why the decline in JW congregations is so significant.

38

How far will they go?

by Gorbatchov in

jw
friends

imagine: you have inside information that could destroy the watchtower corporations.. how far would they go to protect the assets?.

would they kill?

no strange question in blackwater etc days.. g..

slimboyfat

Number of congregations declined in Germany and United States last year. That is real decline. And they have been declining in Japan and elsewhere for a while. I have argued for years that congregation numbers are the best measure of size and growth, long before the numbers started dropping. Watch that space. With all the consolidation going on now, next year’s figures should be fascinating. If WT release the figures next year, that is.

Census returns in Canada and Australia also show declines in those self-identifying as JWs. My own observation is that attendances at conventions locally are down at least 10% from the peak.

Plus there is very good census data (shared by shepherdless) to show that the average age of JWs is climbing rapidly. I see the same in congregations and at conventions, and other posters have observed the same. Increasing age is a very reliable indicator of future decline in religious activity across many different groups such as Anglicans, Methodists and Church of Scotland in the UK.

I don’t want JWs to fail. I want them to reform. And collapse might prompt that to happen. But actually I argued for years on this forum that JWs enjoyed good growth, because compared with most other religious groups that was true! But when the trends started to change I changed my view.

52

Commentary on the Letter of James

by lepermessiah in

jw
friends

zoiks inspired this thread when he mentioned this book elsewhere.. i have read other threads on this forum about it, but i always enjoy the fresh insight on here.. commentary on the letter of james was always my favorite book from wtbs, partly because i love the book of james, but also because it was one of the books that dealt with more practical christian living than constant wt doctrine.. i mentioned to a number of people that i loved that book, and got a few comments of "well, you know that book was written by an apostate.".

it didnt take me long to do a little math - that book came out i believe in 1979/1980, right around the time of the great purge.

how could someone write such an excellent book and then be branded an apostate just a few months later???.

slimboyfat

It’s the book that says masturbation leads to homosexuality for example.

38

How far will they go?

by Gorbatchov in

jw
friends

imagine: you have inside information that could destroy the watchtower corporations.. how far would they go to protect the assets?.

would they kill?

no strange question in blackwater etc days.. g..

slimboyfat

Just because an organisation has survived problems in the past doesn’t mean it will survive problems in the future. That’s illogical. It’s like saying that because I survived measles as a child, therefore I won’t die of another illness tomorrow. It just doesn’t follow.

Where history is relevant is looking for trends and comparisons. On this front JWs resemble other organisations that have collapsed and many longstanding trends indicate they are in deep trouble. The fact that they may have survived this or other crisis or scandal decades ago is irrelevant to the current situation.

38

How far will they go?

by Gorbatchov in

jw
friends

imagine: you have inside information that could destroy the watchtower corporations.. how far would they go to protect the assets?.

would they kill?

no strange question in blackwater etc days.. g..

slimboyfat

Morph why do you have it as an article of faith that nothing can bring the organisation down? Surely it’s as fallible as any organisation and collapse is possible. You seem as sure about the survival of Watchtower as any true believer!

In reality Watchtower is particularly vulnerable for many reasons, just a few of which: it relied on media sales for income which is now gone; their own belief in God’s blessing and Armageddon result in very poor strategic, financial and doctrinal decisions; they keep adherents uneducated and socially immobile and thus in no position to donate; they are only growing in poor countries, which are a net loss to organisation funds, and on and on.

If any religion is vulnerable to collapse it is Wa5chtower, yet you say it can’t happen. Why can’t it happen?

23

What happned to the Quick Builds

by blownaway in

so the qbs were huge in the 80s and 90s, now i hear nothing.

have they stopped?.

slimboyfat

Has this already been mentioned? I was thinking of making a thread about it.