besty

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Posts by besty

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  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

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  besty

  @SBF

  How do you arrive at the 97% figure? Does it refer to academic articles on the subject, because what gets published in academic journals is notoriously impacted by bias and interest groups.

  See answer above for TT2C - the 97% figure is well established for some time by multiple studies covering multiple decades and has not been refuted. (Nice little attempt to poision the well - noted)

  Have you read Bad Pharma by Ben Goldacre? He explains this phenomenon in relation to medicine. How a dozen studies can be performed on a drug, only one showing that it works, and it's the only one that gets published.

  Have you read Ben Goldacre's recomendation on studying the IPCC website for climate science information - you do know he is an evidence-based writer, don't you? http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/dec/12/bad-science-goldacre-climate-change

  A similar thing could be going on in climate science.

  Pointless speculation - evidence please, and not a view held by Ben Goldacre - see link above for his views on climate science.

  Plus scientists who believe in climate change are naturally drawn to the field, and publish their work. Others who find the evidence less compelling may pursue other topics and hence never publish on the subject of climate change. So there may be selection bias both at the level of what gets published and who enters the field in the first place.

  You are speculating SBF - this is ridiculous, and denies the scientific method. This is not a local book club we are talking about. Every major oil and gas company accepts the science of climate change. To do otherwise is akin to creationsim or flat-earthism. This theory would have been in the trash by now if money and influence could have put it there - it's not - deal with it.

  It is my strong suspicion that the coming decades will confound the climate change narrative, that is if humanity does not destroy itself with nuclear weapons before then.

  The last bastion of the denier - future events will prove me right, even when all previous facts show me to be wrong.
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

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  besty

  Unless Betsy has a new source, she is probably referring to the 2009 Doron/Zimmerman survey that came up with the 97% figure.

  <<<<<<--------- *Besty <he>

  Although it is valid to crtiticize methodology, it is also possible to attempt to replicate results. If you have an alternative peer-reviewed paper which shows climate scientists are not in near-unanimous consensus then please share with the group. (Of course the 3% deniers also serve to destroy the conspiracy myth and provide evidence of the scientific method being alive and well - it just so happens they are almost certainly wrong)

  Aside from Doran/Zimmerman finding that 75/77 climate scientists attribute rising temps to human activity there are several other similar studies with similar outcomes analysed here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveys_of_scientists'_views_on_climate_change

  1 - A survey of 928 peer-reviewed abstracts on the subject 'global climate change' published between 1993 and 2003 shows that not a single paper rejected the consensus position that global warming is man caused (Oreskes 2004).

  2 - A follow-up study by the Skeptical Science team of over 12,000 peer-reviewed abstracts on the subjects of 'global warming' and 'global climate change' published between 1991 and 2011 found that of the papers taking a position on the cause of global warming, over 97% agreed that humans are causing it (Cook 2013). The scientific authors of the papers were also contacted and asked to rate their own papers, and again over 97% whose papers took a position on the cause said humans are causing global warming.

  I hope that answers your question. Thanks for the opportunity to elaborate.
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

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• 

  besty

  Besty, et al are playing defense for a reason.

  Do you know what a knob is? I'm just wondering if a knob can also be hypocritical.

  That would make you a hypocritical knob, if I'm not mistaken...
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
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• 

  besty

  Well the sea temperature sure looks like rising on that graph. What does Judith Curry say about that?

  That's your comment on it?

  falsified evidence on CO2 (how it increased after not before temperature rises)

  CO2 both leads and lags temperature. A small increase in CO2 caused by orbital cycles does trigger a small increase in temperature. That temperature rise then releases more CO2 which increases the temperature still further. This is well understood. The missing piece in the current scenario can only be explained by human activity.

  There is no falsified evidence. Otherwise publish a paper and make yourself rich and famous. Your falsified evidence exists only on the blogosphere.

  Since I don't know the science I can only follow the discourse, and it looks and feels to me like a theory in retreat.

  Your position on matters of science is decided for you by the tides of public opinion? I don't understand why you would reject what 97% of climate scientists say about climate science, whilst simultaneously accepting what 50% of Joe Public's think about climate science. Doesn't make sense.
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
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• 

  besty

  @SBF

  1 - Why you adopt the 3% position when you admit to not being qualified.

  2 - Whats happening with the blue bit of the graph relating to ocean heat content?
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

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  2. 
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• 

  besty

  The next ten years should be interested.

  Are you struggling to comment on the known facts of the previous 40 years?

  The academic consensus can be wrong.

  Examples in the modern era of a 97% consensus being wrong after decades of study and research in a multitude of disciplines please.

  Are sea levels rising faster than they thought, or are you just making up that as an example?

  Satellite and tide-gauge measurements show that sea level rise is accelerating faster than expected. Rahmstorf, Foster, and Cazenave (2012) compares the historical sea level tide gauge data from Church and White (2011) and recent satellite altimetry sea level data (orange and red in Figure 4, respectively) to the 2001 and 2007 IPCC report model projection s (blue and green in Figure 4, respectively). The observational data in Figure 4 are aligned so that extending the satellite best-fit line (red) back to 1990 will match the IPCC projection s at that date, where the IPCC TAR model runs begin.

  http://www.skepticalscience.com/ipcc-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm

  The public is losing faith in climate change. In that sense it is losing ground.

  argumentum ad populam? 60% of US Republicans are young earth creationists - whats your point?
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
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  3. 
• 

  besty

  @SBF

  besty the graph only goes to 2010, I can't help you, look at It.

  OK - try this:

  

  The point is clear - 5 periods of claimed cooling = upward trend. Ever tried going down an up escalator, because that's what you are seeing here.

  On scientific credentials, do yours outstrip Judith Curry who you disparage?

  No. Thats why the only logical position is to accept the 97% consensus. (Same reason I accept 587 for the destruction of Jerusalem without being a neo-Babylonian history professor)

  Since I am not a scientist and I can't evaluate the evidence independently I think it is reasonable for me to judge the IPCC on its past predictions, don't you think that's reasonable?

  Yes that's reasonable. Except you haven't read every single IPCC report and formed your own conclusions - you are cutting and pasting from a non-scientific source. And where said economist says the IPCC were 'wrong', he doesn't say if they were wrong by being too conservative...its' difficult for the IPCC to get agreement from every government by being wildly pessimistic on outcomes. Some examples of the IPCC getting it wrong:

  fossil fuel emissions worse than they thought, Artic ice melting faster than they thought, sea level rising faster than they thought

  If that makes them wrong then so be it. Mother Nature doesn't care about IPCC predictions - most of the document summarizes our current understanding based on research to date. I'd be happy to consider a more comprehensive summary of every single prediction made by the IPCC and compare those predictions to outcomes.

  Which begs the question, since their predictions over the past 20 years have proved wrong, why should we be confident about their further predictions

  It begs the question if the premise is correct. You haven't convinced me that the IPCC are 'wrong'.

  The global warming narrative that is rapidly losing ground.

  Factually incorrect. And you need to explain a few things to me before you can even assert that.

  1 - Why you adopt the 3% position when you admit to not being qualified.

  2 - Whats happening with the blue bit of the graph relating to ocean heat content?
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

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  besty

  thats his personal opinion metatron - you'll have noted he hasn't published a paper for peer review - just tweeted that he isn't flying anymore. Good luck to him.

  You don't seem to be the kind of guy that would struggle differentiating between opinions and facts, so i'm not sure why you feel this adds anything to a thread on the IPCC report, which is evidence-based.
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

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• 

  besty

  glander - you invoke "random ridicule" and yet I can't see any instance of ridicule directed at you on this thread.

  You end your comment saying 'you guys need your mommy and teddy bear'

  Hypocritical?

  The point is the IPCC report doesn't fit your worldview and so you will use any means you can think of to discredit the message.
• 
  153

  IPCC Climate Change Report........

  by cantleave in

  1. social
  2. current

  .....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

  people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  besty

  I am not qualified to do the science, ..

  therefore I will use the Daily Mail to inform me?

  therefore I will accept a 97% expert consensus?