@giordano - you make some excellent off-topic points - pls see the subject line for details of this particular thread.
Posts by besty
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739250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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besty
between my wife and I - combined 70 years active association with a huge circle of JW's in several UK regions - we came up with a big fat zero JW's we were aware of that wilfully bled out in the hospital.
Just the 3 that made the news in the last 5 or 6 years - Joshua McAuley the young lad in Birmingham area, the twins mum Emma Gough and the old dear Margaret Cornelius - the latter being local press only.
Marvins numbers implies that for every JW death that makes the national and local news there are another 30 or so deaths that go unreported....
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739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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besty
well at least his methodolgy is open to professional peer review - I think that is what we are attempting here with Marvin, but very unprofessionally :-)
seriously SBF - what is your gut feel on JW deaths in the UK per annum due to blood refusal?
I was amazed that Economist blogger had to go back 6 years to 2007 to quote an example.
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"Building 1.5 Million Square Feet in 4 Years will NOT Happen Without Jehovah's Spirit"
by Yan Bibiyan ina quote from the latest jw video pimping the warwick project.
link below, quote @7:30 mark.. http://www.jw.org/en/jehovahs-witnesses/activities/construction/video-world-headquarters-jehovahs-witnesses-history-warwick/.
i call bullshit!.
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besty
tax free donations + volunteer labour = property empire
Jesus loves you.
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739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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besty
All maths and extrapolations and assumptions aside, the implications of the 50k and 250k number don't make sense.
Marvins 'conservative' 50k implies 30 JW's a year bleeding to death in UK hospitals - 250k implies...well you can do the maths.
If any lurkers or faders have HLC access and can get a figure that would be informative. Feel free to PM me and I will post it if you prefer not to.
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739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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besty
Scientists publish papers - bloggers write blogs - foolz exchange foolishness on discussion forums
The barriers to entry are different for each.
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739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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besty
@marvin
In year 1998 there were 5,544,059 JWs. You do the math and tell readers what a ratio of 3848-to-1 gives us for the year 1998 alone.
1/3848 = 0.00025987525987526, or 0.26/1000 - I think we all get that you believe 0.26/1000 JW's will die of anemia on an annual basis.
In lil'ole UK that would be in the region of 300+ people every year. I think we would have noticed. An Economist article this year on the blood doctrine had to refer back to a 2007 death for a relevant example http://www.economist.com/blogs/erasmus/2013/08/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood - now why would the journalist trawl back to 2007 to get an example if there were hundreds of them occuring every year?
The problem marvin is not the maths to arrive at your chosen answer once you have decided the values for all the variables. The problem is how you got to those values.
I don't accept your extrapolation is valid, nor the way you are now presenting it is particularly forthright. You presenting your extrapolations as 'hard'.
The Beliaev study gives us hard numbers saying over a 10-year period we have <speculation alert------> 33 statistical deaths among a community that averaged <Beliaev doesn't mention this figure------> 12,700 members annually over the same 10-year period. <evidently-----> Hence we have 3.3 deaths per year for 12,700 individuals per year. That’s an extrapolated ratio of 3848-to-1 annually. These are the <semi-----> hard numbers. These numbers are not a rate. They are hard. (not as hard as you would like Marvin - maybe you need a blood tranfusion :-)
The hard numbers are 19 dead JW's in 4 hospitals over a 10 year period. The JW's and the control group were selected after the fact by Beliaev.
The rest is your speculative extrapolation on top of your assumptions.
eg - average number of JW's 12,700 - did you account for unbaptized publishers under the age of 15 being in the official JW figures, but which the Beliaev study would exclude, for example.
I'm not saying your maths is wrong, or that your assumptions are not possible. Just that when I take a different approach I get a different answer, and there is a 13x difference in outcomes between our approaches.
Just as I cannot get away from your maths, you cannot get away from mine., but thats not really the point.
Have a nice day, and keep up the good work!
@SBF - 13,700 over 5 decades globally - see page 4 of the thread :-)
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739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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besty
@marvin
The generally accepted death rate in New Zealand from anemia is 0.002/1000. Google it.
Based on the Beliaev study, I believe that JW's have a 10x death rate from anemia at 0.02/1000
You are happy to propose that JW's have a 130x death rate from anemia at 0.26/1000
The people reading this forum can decide whether a JW with anemia is 10x or 130x more likely to die from anemia than a person receiving normal medical care.
http://marvinshilmer.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/anemia-10-times-more-witnesses-die.html
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739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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besty
@marvin
what is the mortality rate per 100,000 due to anemia for JW's
same figure for non JW's please.
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739
250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood
by nicolaou in80+ branch davidian cult members died in waco, texas.
250,000+ #jehovahswitnesses have died refusing blood.
stop this #cult!
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besty
@marvin - you said:
I appreciate you persisting in the particular you do above. It’s made me revisit and revisit and revisit the calculator used in my assessment of this information, which is a good thing. Just now I noticed an algorithm that’s not as labeled. I’m going to look into why this is the case to see if I mislabeled or miscalculated, or perhaps something else. I’ll get back as soon as this reassessment is performed.
Thanks again for pushing on substance
let me know when you have 'looked into this'