sir82

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Posts by sir82

• 
  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

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  sir82

  Wishful thinking:

  Biden's now up just 4 points, that's a far cry from 10+ safety a few weeks ago

  Reality, from Trump's favorite poll:

  The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Biden earning 50% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 40%.

  https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_jul08
  

  Wishful thinking:
  

  you need to flip entire states not just sample the majority in CA and NY.

  Reality:

  • Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.

  • Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the safer Likely Democratic category.

  • Georgia has joined Arizona, North Carolina and Florida in the Toss Up column, although, at this point, Biden would be slightly favored to win at least Arizona and Florida.

  • Maine’s 2nd district has moved from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican.

  https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/new-july-2020-electoral-college-ratings

  Trumpists can fantasize all they want to, but (keeping in mind the election is 4 months away and a lot can happen in the interim) it's looking like a catastrophe for 45.
  
  
• 
  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

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  sir82

  Electoral projections:

  https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/new-july-2020-electoral-college-ratings

  These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold (to 279).
  Republican strategists we’ve spoken with this week think Trump is close to the point of no return. A couple of others wondered if Trump had reached his “Katrina” moment: a permanent loss of trust and faith of the majority of voters.

  In talking with strategists on both sides this last week, it’s also clear that Trump is dragging Republican congressional candidates with him as well.

  Less than 4 months to the election, and Trump is either unwilling to or incapable of altering his approach to change the minds of voters not in his base.

  To me, it looks like not only a Biden presidency, but also Democratic control of both chambers of congress.
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  66

  Now we have a Mary Trump book coming out ...

  by RubaDub in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i have to admit, this president can stir up shit.

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  other than some people who failed 10th grade or have a confederate flag on the back of their pickup trucks, who actually likes him?.

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  sir82

  I expect the QAnon folks to pop up here soon.

  Woops! Look like they already have.

  Carry on.
• 
  160

  Do You Believe Polls Saying Trump Will Lose To Biden?

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a new fox poll says biden is up by 12 percentage points.

  of course, most other polls say trump will be trounced this time around.. do you think the polls might be right this time?

  .

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  sir82

  https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_jul08

  The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Biden earning 50% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 40%. Six percent (6%) remain undecided.

  The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted July 5-7, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

  When you lose Rasmussen by double-digits, well....yikes.
  
  And as I've noted before, "50%" and above is the magic number. To win you've got to not only convince 100% of the undecideds but also change the minds of committed voters for the other guy.

  Yes, I know the winner of the electoral college wins the presidency, but the overall polling reflects trends, and purple state polling results are similarly catastrophic for DJT.
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  66

  Now we have a Mary Trump book coming out ...

  by RubaDub in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i have to admit, this president can stir up shit.

  .

  other than some people who failed 10th grade or have a confederate flag on the back of their pickup trucks, who actually likes him?.

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  sir82

  Based on excerpts from book:

  Donald John Trump = Charles Foster Kane.

  Discuss.
• 
  23

  Scriptures they use to justify disfellowshipping

  by Lynnie in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  does someone have a list of the scriptures the jw's use to justify shunning and disfellowshipping?

  i know there are only a few..

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  sir82

  Main one is 1 Corinthians 5:11-13:

  But now I am writing you to stop keeping company with anyone called a brother who is sexually immoral
  or a greedy person or an idolater or a reviler or a drunkard or an extortioner, not even eating with such a man. For what do I have to do with judging those outside? Do you not judge those inside, while God judges those outside? “Remove the wicked person from among yourselves."
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  13

  Letter writing question

  by carla in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  so the jw's are no longer goind d2d but instead are writing letters- my question is what return address are they putting on the letters?

  their own or the kh?

  the kh's in our area have no mailbox and therefore no mail can be delivered or returned to a kh.. thanks in advance!.

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  sir82

  Some use the KH address if it has a mailbox.

  Some congregations rent a PO box.

  Some JWs probably put their own home address.

  Others might just leave the return address blank.
• 
  117

  I’m Seeing Some Trump Fatigue Out There

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i’ve heard from a few trump voters that they are getting tired of the whole trump thing.

  one person yesterday said he lies.

  another person said she hears from her clients in her business that the constant drama and push back from all sides against trump is fatiguing.. i remind people that before this worldwide pandemic, we had the best numbers in jobs.

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  sir82

  Poster said "cases", not "deaths". My stats also refer to "cases".

  I agree death count has been dropping, but keep in mind that the death rate lags behind the new infection rate. I expect to see a jump in death rates in mid-July or so.

  Oh, and regarding increased testing:

  Yes, of course, more tests = more cases confirmed, BUT also keep in mind that the positivity rate of the tests is also rising.

  So some of the increase is due to "increased testing", but the increasing positivity rate of test administered indicates that the disease is spreading and is not controlled.
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  117

  I’m Seeing Some Trump Fatigue Out There

  by minimus in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i’ve heard from a few trump voters that they are getting tired of the whole trump thing.

  one person yesterday said he lies.

  another person said she hears from her clients in her business that the constant drama and push back from all sides against trump is fatiguing.. i remind people that before this worldwide pandemic, we had the best numbers in jobs.

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  sir82

  new cases have been steadily declining the past 6 or 7 days.

  ???

  What stats are you looking at?

  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

  

  Those are the 6 highest days (6/30 thru 7/5) in the US since the start of the pandemic, surpassing the prior peaks in April.
  
  
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  57

  Prince Andrew & Jeffrey Epstein, WTF

  by Simon in

  1. social
  2. current

  in fact, several "wtf"s, not least - why were you visiting a convicted pedophile after his release from prison, never-mind having any contact with him in the first place when his preoclivities seemed to be an open secret.. and the best he can some up with is "i don't remember"?

  you don't remember?

  there's a fucking photo of you with one of the victims and accessories to the crimes you dumb fuck!.

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  sir82

  Ghislaine Maxwell will start to sing to the authorities to minimize her prison time.

  Assuming she doesn't suddenly become "suicidal"....

  ...coincidentally at the same time that security cameras malfunction and guards happen to be on a coffee break.