Most new ex-JWs tend to believe all of the R&F must see what they see...I know I did 9 years ago. The reality is, people really cannot see TTATT for what it is, since existentialism and cognitive dissonance prevent it.
Having said that, if we consider both of those mental blockades and what they are, we can see how the recent changes in the organization just might lead a good many to leave, (albeit, over time).
Existentialism deals with the fear of the unknown, or fear of things we cannot control, (like dying). With the WT continuing to water down its doctrine, most JWs simply don't "know" what they used to regarding many things that they used to have all of the answers for. The cost of staying to satisfy this innate need often can prove too costly, in the absence of something tangible doctrinally to believe in.
Many of the changes brought about recently bring into question many of the assumed norms regarding the "dignity" of worship, (think of using the KH for concerts and dances), not that there is anything wrong with these things, (all normal churches do them), but JW was supposed to be different. Not any more. The tacit message that is sent is that we are just like everyone else.
All of this adds to cognitive dissonance. In the mind of a JW, their religion is not supposed to be this way. A person can only handle so much cognitive dissonance before they tune out. JWs are now exposed to dissonance inducing material at every meeting. Something has to give.
The changes being made in the organization are in uncharted territory, (outside experts making them or not). There is no example jw.org can point to that demonstrates they have a model for success. The changes that are being made are clearly being made out of desperation, (or else why make them). All of those changes are superficial, and nothing is being done to address the actual core issues.
While I still firmly do not believe the organization is going anywhere soon, I do think it is in decline, and searching, (scrambling), for direction. The next several years are going to be very interesting.
d4g