yk-
i realize that calling me delusional is one of the ways you can discredit me (in your mind), but the logic behind your statements is severely flawed, and ill tell you why.
Technically, yes. Although I wouldn't use the word "believe" in the past tense.
first off, i want to address this, then we will get into your faulty logic. you do know i was only kidding about others being delusional, right? i was poking fun at the way you take past predictions about the market and use them against the predictors (calling them conmen and such), when you in fact have made a hundred predictions that havent remotely come true. i know yours are different, and its not the same, blah blah, but i was only tossing a little humor your way with those statements.
now on to your logic of me and my "delusions".....
According to that definiton and your own view of the markets, ....you are certifiably delusional.
we can stop right here....no need for the rest of your post. my "view of the markets"? i assume you mean the comment i made about confidence levels falling, and how that probably means a bull market is ahead.......well, one thing you have to remember, is that for it to fall perfectly into pattern, the confidence levels would have to fall through the floor from where they are now. they are NO WHERE NEAR their lows, the lows that preceeded the big bull markets. for one thing, we had (technically) a bear market from 1972-1982. that was 10 YEARS before the confidence levels finally hit rock bottom, and then the bulls ran. so for you to talk about my "view of the markets", as if i think we are at the end of this bear market run is just stupid. maybe i should be more careful in qualifying my remarks......but i did say "if" the confidence levels continue to fall its "all the more reason.....etc". theres no saying they will. hell, a month after the biggest terrorist attack in history the confidence levels were already soaring again, so who knows. personally, i have no idea if the market is going to go up from here, or go sideways for 10 years, or go straight down and crash. i have said MANY MANY times to you personally (several on the wager thread alone) that it wouldnt surprise me one bit if the markets crashed, completely. so how am i delusional? i believe if you simply look back a couple posts on this thread alone, youll see i talked about the possibility of the dow dropping to 5000 (which would probably put the nasdaq around 500).....yet my view of the markets makes me delusional? you cant run with one statement yk, go back and check all of our old arguments, and youll see i havent made ONE definitive prediction about the downtrend being over......and if i HAD to guess, id say its not over yet, not by a long shot. i do think we will have tradeable rallies in the meantime though, but i think weve got awhile yet before the markets turn for the good (for an extended stretch). you might be interested to know that i dont discount your theory on ge, jp morgan, etc., either. it really wouldnt surprise me to see some of the big ones go, and thats why i left open the possibility of the dow hitting 5000 (or lower, who knows). if ge goes, i think the market will promptly drop a good 2000 points, minimum. i still hold out hope that the big guns like ge dont have these same problems, but im realistic, and i can see just like any other intelligent person, that when theres one bad apple, theres a bunch....even the simplest of investors are seeing that now....even cnbc cant hide it. so, having refreshed your memory about my true "view of the markets", please find another reason to call me delusional......youve never been short of those, lol.
aa
Edited by - dubla on 3 July 2002 10:10:39