Posts by dubla

82

Has the WTS ever made a prediction that came true?

by Leander in

jw
friends

this morning a thought occured to me "has the society ever made a prediction or prophecy that has come true"?.

most of us are familiar with the prophecies or dates the wts has emphasized in the past.

of course all of those predictions never proved to be accurate so the question is, "if this is god's prophetic organization where is the proof"?.

dubla

nytel-

go ahead........just dont mix up total misunderstanding
of the scripture with predicting out of the blue.

so youre saying that your definition of the word "predict" doesnt include predicting through the use of the scriptures? well, in that case you are right, maybe they havent ever predicted anything. i can tell you with some certainty though, that the wtbts has made many SPECIFIC predictions (including SPECIFIC dates) about bible prophecy throught the years. but i guess these were mere "misunderstandings".

i find myself saying this to you alot nytel, but ill say it again anyway: gimme a break.

aa

82

Has the WTS ever made a prediction that came true?

by Leander in

jw
friends

this morning a thought occured to me "has the society ever made a prediction or prophecy that has come true"?.

most of us are familiar with the prophecies or dates the wts has emphasized in the past.

of course all of those predictions never proved to be accurate so the question is, "if this is god's prophetic organization where is the proof"?.

dubla

nytel-

has the society ever claimed to "predict"?.................

absolutely. would you like me to start giving specific examples on this thread, or shall we start a new one?

aa

64

Our town just got hit by terrorists!!!!!!!!!!

by MrMoe in

jw
friends

my boss just called on a cell phone - he went to arby's for lunch and 3 people of arabic decent ran in an threw some sort of chemical on the floor and ran out.

us 41 was closed and he is being quarantined.

i am worried - hope he is ok. hopefully this is a fluke, but i just don't know.

dubla

virginia-

The second case of anthrax is not being viewed as the beginning of an outbreak/terrorist attack.

well, youre partially right i suppose, they havent labeled it an "outbreak" as of now, but the point you were trying to get across really is dead wrong. they (the u.s. govt.) do think there is a strong possibility that the anthrax in fla. is linked to the terrorist activities. first of all, anthrax isnt found naturally in the state of florida, so they already know for a FACT that it was brought/planted there. secondly, the building where the anthrax was found, and the two patients both worked, is located a mere 3 miles from the airport that atta (the ringleader of the plane hijackers) flew out of several times during his pilot training. coincidence?

ari fliesher labeled it a "cause for concern". let me tell you this, if youve ever watched the press secretary speak, youll know that a "cause for concern" is actually pretty strong wording for him. translation: we are pretty sure this thing is linked to terrorism.

aa

64

Our town just got hit by terrorists!!!!!!!!!!

by MrMoe in

jw
friends

my boss just called on a cell phone - he went to arby's for lunch and 3 people of arabic decent ran in an threw some sort of chemical on the floor and ran out.

us 41 was closed and he is being quarantined.

i am worried - hope he is ok. hopefully this is a fluke, but i just don't know.

dubla

Brutus, please give people time to respond to questions and do not start accusing people of being liars.

true, she didnt have that much time to respond after the first post. the fact is though, that she DID respond after asked by more than one person WHERE the act took place. she responded, but it seemed as if she was ignoring the "where" questions. and with all due respect to simon and mr.moe, i hardly think after reading over this thread and the other simon/moe thread that mr. moe was "attacked". brutus did say he/she smelled "bullshit", but he/she was promptly replied to by being called a jackass and a prick. so is that how reprimanding on this forum goes? the one who throws the first punch is told to watch it, but subsequent "attacks" and name-calling deemed appropriate? hmmmmm.

for the record, i have nothing against mr.moe. it just seems that some can be very sensitive to word exchanges on the forum, and that sensitivity/complaining is usually followed up by some counsel from the top dawg.

aa

19

WELL, HERE WE GO...

by Michael3000 in

jw
friends

the us launched an air strike on key cities in afghanistan around 12:45 est today.

president bush says that we are specifcally targeting taliban military installations, and terrorist training camps.

may god be with us all.. .

dubla

these anti-war threads are more and more ridiculous to me every time i read them. bin laden has declared war on the u.s. some time ago, and has said recently that the u.s. cannot expect to feel secure until all infidel armies leave the holy land. he has declared war on us, and now we are in the process of trying to disrupt his (and other) organization(s) in order to help prevent more attacks on the u.s. its that simple. many are spouting off about the actions being taken against afghanistan, and about all the innocent lives that will be lost.

8) Now they understand that it is possible to deal with situations without pointless excessive force.

if its so possible to deal with these situations without excessive force, then what is your proposed solution? so many speak out against "pointless excessive force", and i have yet to hear ONE, even ONE viable means of preventing further attacks WITHOUT using force on the terrorist camps.

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

utop-

no problem, anytime. as far as YK is concerned, i doubt we will see him for awhile. he was already hinting at taking a hiatus, and then im pretty sure i further silenced him with my recent gloating, for which he could not and will not muster a response. we will no doubt see him in early november at the latest, when he will have to appear and explain why he didnt actually lose the bet, or that he never actually bet, or whatever it is hell say when the dollar is indeed still very valuable.

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

larc-

However, I do not have the emotional fortitude and the patience to do it on my own. For that reason, I have invested in mutual funds.

to be honest, we utilize mostly mutual funds, annuities, and professional money managers as opposed to individual stocks. individual stock picking is a hobby, and some clients would just rather own indiviuals, but in general, its a tough niche to carve anymore, what with all the on-line trading and discounters out there. technical analysis can still be very helpful though, just in predicting the market as a whole, as ive shown yk in recent days.

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

larc-

broker with a partner, thus the "we".

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

wow, alot of posts since i logged off yesterday! ill try to respond to all of them here......

dwilt-

sorry, but the technical analysis of csco held true today as i predicted it probably would. it opened lower and is sliding a bit this morning.

winston-

to answer your question, i do use graphs quite often, yes. as far as cups with downward sloping handles, i assume you mean saucer patterns.......are you looking for individual stock picks?

feeling bullish eh? id love to feel bullish, im just not sure we are going straight up from here. spring next year is what alot of analysts and economists are pointing to, but weve seen how often they can be dead wrong. from a technical analysis standpoint, a retest of our lows, or at least a slight retracement, then another rally would actually be the best thing for the market right now. if it continues to go straight up, creating a "v-type" bottom, that actually will cause the market to go from oversold to overbought in a hurry, which isnt what we want. retest, then rally, some sideways movement to build a base......this sequence would provide the best environment for the start of another long term bull market. of course, it would also help if there isnt anymore surprise attacks against the u.s. in the interim.

larc-

I think you describe yourself as a technical analyst, and from that I take it that you believe that the shape of the ups and downs on the graph for a company have special meaning........Could you comment on the similiarities and differences between value investing and your approach, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of both, and their track records, as two different investment strategies?

okay, big question, and ill try to do my best to answer it without getting too long-winded. first off, i believe in both, and i do not see them as opposites. there are certain fundamentals that go into labeling a stock "value" or "growth", which i wont get into right now, but ill say that value playing works overall as a conservative approach, and in down markets it can really thrive. two of the men you mentioned, dremen and buffet, both got absolutely killed in the booming tech markets we had those two years. why? they play whats fundamentally sound and usually out of favor. buffet made a living off of this for years, and then his portforlio went straight into the tank when the tech boom hit. the same with dremen. but now theyre both back on top, because value is the only thing that really survived this massive bear market. and now people will tend to say you need a company with stong fundamentals to make it long term. i would tend to agree. now ill get into the strategies.....

the two analysis strategies that are used are technical, and fundamental, and this is where the real differences, and the answers to your question lie. fundamental analysis takes into consideration a companies earnings, stock price, outstandstanding shares, growth rate, etc. put it all together and youve got the fundamentals of the company, which theoretically tell you whos got the business plan and profit margin necessary to make it long term, and who doesnt. it works.

technical analysis takes none of these into consideration. it uses only graphs, investor sentiment, put-call ratios, advance-decline scales, etc. they all have very significant meanings, but without describing each, lets just stick with charting since thats the one you were centering on. you said, "I take it that you believe that the shape of the ups and downs on the graph for a company have special meaning." yes i do. charting is not everything, and it is not fool-proof, nothing in the market is. but you wouldnt believe the accuracy in which it works. the csco example for one, if you read through the posts and see the bit of graphing i used on that one, it was amazing to watch it work to perfection. graphing uses "resistance levels" and "support levels". when a company hits 50 dollars, then falls back....rallies up to 50 again, then falls back, and again the same.....this 50 dollar mark becomes "resistance". the stock is having a hard time breaking through it, regardless of the stocks fundamentals. once it breaks through the resistance on a closing basis, this is very bullish, and you can almost say its a safe bet to make a run. at that point, once above 50 for a day, week, month, whatever....50 now becomes support. it might take a dip back down, but usually will hold at the new found support. and just as breaking through resistance is bullish, breaking through support is bearish, a definite sell sign. you asked for specific track records, and id really have to dig a bit for that answer, but i can tell you with conviction, technical analysis works.

so ive said fundamental analysis works, and ive said technical analysis works.....but they essentially have nothing to do with each other, so which do you go by? i use both, and personally i think its the best way. i like to invest in fundamentally sound companies in order to prevent rapid overnight losses, but also trade these companies according to their graph pattern. im going to give one more example, pfizer: PFE. this is one i was telling yk awhile back that we profited on, and ill show you how technical analysis worked so beautifully. id encourage you to check the charts on this one to get a better picture of it......

between the weeks of 5/28/99, and 3/31/00, PFE built a nice trading range between 33 and 42, with strong support showing in the 33-35 range. the week of 4/7/00, it broke out, and ran to 50. it stayed up there (42-50) for a year, then dipped hard in march of 01. it broke through its new support at 42, and fell sharply out of bed. then a funny thing happened. it hit 34 and bounced like a rubber ball, straight up. the original support that was built in 99-00, held at 34. it was up for awhile again, back up to 42-45, la dee da, and sep. 11th comes around. guess what? bam, down to 34, and again, 34 held perfectly. its a strange and wonderful thing to watch. thats where we stepped in and bought it. on 9/24/01 to be exact, bought a bunch at 35. personally i sold mine a week later and took the gain, but weve still got people in it, and ideally i think well unload between 42-45.

so, hopefully i at least partially adressed your questions....i think i still got long winded.

aa

536

LET'S MAKE A LITTLE WAGER

by You Know in

jw
friends

perhaps you recall the instance in the bible where samson made a wager with the philistines that they couldnt guess his riddle.

as it turned out they wheedled the answer out of him by his fiancee, but the point is that they had a wager.

since the underlying assumption of the apostasy is that we are not living in the last days of this system of things, and that this world is not facing anything remotely like the biblical apocalypse, at least not any time soon, in the spirit of such antagonism, i would like to propose a similar wager.

dubla

dwilt-

i should probably start a new thread for this, but for now ill just keep it on this neverending thread. the market closed about an hour ago, and i just happened to take a look at csco a minute ago. technical analysis is a funny thing. it cant always be explained, but boy does it ever work. early this morning i told you if csco closed above 14.59 today, that this would be bullish, that it would have a good chance of making a run. i told you this because 14.59 looked to me to be a point of "resistance" on the chart. wow how that resistance held. it played around between 14.57 and 14.63 just a half hour before the close before dipping to a closing price of 14.42. this after it had hit 15.03 intraday, looking like it would just blow right through. now, this doesnt mean that it cant still get legs and run, but the fact that 14.59 held as resistance suggests we could very possibly see a slight pullback from here.

hopefully though, itll buck the trend and close above 14.59 for you tomorrow. if that happens, again, it would be very bullish. the techs were strong for most of the day today, so cross your fingers.

aa