GLTirebiter

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Posts by GLTirebiter

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  101

  A riddle my brother gave me today

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a man has 2 children.

  he tells you one is a boy born on a tuesday.

  what is the probability the other is a boy to?.

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  GLTirebiter

  @StAnn:

  Sorry I didn't give you credit where it was due. I didn't have time to go back and see who had said 13/27 before getting to work this morning. That odd figure stood out, I just had to figure out where it came from and if it was right or wrong. As usual, you were right!

  @Bohm:

  Thank you for the fun thread! I didn't read your response until this evening.

  @everybody:

  Solving this class of problem requires more than one tool. The first tool is the basic probability part, identifying the number of permuations (there are 196: (two genders x seven days of the week) ^ two children = 14 ^ 2 = 196). The second tool is deductive reasoning, determining which of the permutations the observer's statements have excluded. You need to use both tools to make sense of "Monty Hall Problems": it isn't just about finding the over-all distribution, it's identifying which particular outcomes are consistent with observations based on "inside knowledge" of the permutation that turned up in this particular instance. It looks like a pure probability problem, but the reporter with inside information changes the game.
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  57

  this lurker's first post.

  by dances with smurfs in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  :|.

  ...........im gonna go have an anxiety attack now.

  lol.

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  GLTirebiter

  Welcome to the board! I hope we give you no reason to feel anxious.
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  51

  Wives - How do you "manage" your husband?

  by hamsterbait in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  as far as my experience goes, most males once married go back to "little boy" mode.. wheres the butter?

  (while looking at it in the fridge).

  where are my clean socks (where they always are).

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  GLTirebiter

  A woman marries a man hoping he will change. He won't.

  A man marries a woman hoping she will never change. She will.

  Here's to the changes in life!
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  101

  A riddle my brother gave me today

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a man has 2 children.

  he tells you one is a boy born on a tuesday.

  what is the probability the other is a boy to?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  GLTirebiter

  @recovering:

  No, those are two different cases because the order matters. The case of first-born son, second born daughter isn't the same as first-born daughter, second-born son.

  @(many others):

  After sleeping on it, I see that the "Tuesday" is an important clue the informed observer gave us, and I didn't consider it. You who said 13/27 are right! The observer excluded all but 27 possibilities:

  • Seven with a first-born son born on Tuesday and a second-born daughter born on any day
  • Seven with a first-born daughter born on any day and a second-born son born on Tuesday
  • Six with a first-born son born on Tuesday and a second-born son not born on Tuesday
  • Six with a first-born son not born on Tuesday and a second-born son born on Tuesday
  • One with a first-born son and second-born son, both born on Tuesday (don't count this case twice!)

  So 13 of the 27 possibilities are two sons. My hat is off to those who saw this the first time!
• 
  101

  A riddle my brother gave me today

  by bohm in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  a man has 2 children.

  he tells you one is a boy born on a tuesday.

  what is the probability the other is a boy to?.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  GLTirebiter

  There's a subtle trick to the question. It doesn't say whether the first or second child is a boy, only that at least one of them is. This bias in the reporting changes the result from the expected 50/50 probability: by revealing at least one is a boy, the probability of the second being a boy is no longer a statistically independent occurrance.

  Consider: there are four equally possible sequences for the gender of two children

  Boy, Boy

  Boy, Girl

  Girl, Boy

  Girl, Girl <-- this is the only case that is excluded

  So of the three remaining cases, only one is the case of two boys: the probability is 1/3.

  This is a relative of the Monty Hall Problem. What looks like a random selection really isn't, because the use of inside information biases the reporting: if there were two girls, he would have switched the riddle around.
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  61

  My First Post

  by today in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i've been visiting this forum everyday, reading and waiting patiently for approval to post.

  i've never been a jw.

  my husband and daughter are.

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  GLTirebiter

  Hello, Today, and welcome to the board!

  I'm sorry to hear that things have gone so badly for you. It's a story familair to many here. I suggest checking freeminds.org, if you haven't been there yet. Read the articles in the sociology-marriage section, especially The Eclectic Marriage. You will find plenty to ponder while you wait for the books you order to arrive.

  I know in an instant if he had to chose, I would lose. He's a good man, a good father and I love him. But honestly, I know he loves the WT more.

  Nurturing the marriage partnership takes the committment of both persons. When an outsider demands priority over the spouse trouble often follows. The Watchtower organization is that outsider, and their demans can strain the relationship just as badly as "the other woman".

  I wish you well, whatever path you choose to follow.
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  11

  How much texting is reasonable for kids?

  by moshe in

  1. social
  2. family

  our daughter is going into 6th grade this year and it seems she just started texting last month.

  six months ago she rarely talked on the phone and now our home phone rings all day long.

  today, she ran the battery down on our cordless phone and it died in the middle of my wife's phone call to her sister.

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  GLTirebiter

  How in the FREEK did we survive

  By passing notes in class, if I recall correctly.
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  83

  My friend got a certified letter saying he is being DF'D

  by foolsparadise in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  my friends wife just divorced him with no scriptural grounds about a year ago.

  kicked him out changed the locks on his own house won't let him see his children.

  he was living in his truck for two months.

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  GLTirebiter

  won't let him see his children

  If that's the case and considering his financial condition, whatever he can afford to spend on lawyers could be used in the area of custody and visitation. The certified DF letter combined with the WT custody pamphlet may be useful in pursuing his rights as a father--that's where an experienced attorney can help. Also see the related article at Freeminds.
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  2

  Happy Father's Day to all the dads!

  by kitten whiskers in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  here's to hoping you are having a wonderful day today!.

  i know some will be enjoying the day with family and i hope it is amazing!.

  i also know some will be wishing they could be with family and celebrate.

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  GLTirebiter

  Thank you for the wishes! I'll probably have to take the initiative and make the call myself, after meeting gets out. You know the elders won't be reminding the congregation to "honor thy father" on Fathers' Day.
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  4

  Fertilizer and Watch Tower Literature

  by ssn587 in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  do to all the nonsense or rather bs in the watch tower literature, it makes one wonder if it could be used to fertilize your garden, or perhaps not though because it is also full of weeds.

  to the truly brain washed, it provides a fertilizer affect don't you think?

  it wouldn't even be the proper food for a worm, or insect.

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  GLTirebiter

  I don't know if they use safe inks or not. With ink of unknown origin who knows what will end up in the compost? If you only grow flowers, not to worry--but I'd be careful about putting it on the veggie garden. Besides, their figurative manure lacks the nitrogen content of the real thing straight from the bull's backside. I suggest using the fertilizer God provides directly, not the stuff pre-digested by the F&DS.