Petraglyph

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Posts by Petraglyph

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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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  Petraglyph

  If not please rephrase your question.
  

  Ok.
  

  For the whole dataset I got 1857 victims and 1006 abusers. This calculates to an ratio of 1.85 victims per abuser.

  I'm curious as to this ratio for the 10 year data slice you have extracted, as it appears from the figures you've produced that the ratio will be lower for the latter 10 years than for the dataset as a whole - which would suggest there's a downward trend.

  Also if you can separately determine the ratio for the period prior to 2005 we can absolutely confirm if there is a downward trend.
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  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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  Petraglyph

  What ratio did you identify from your statistical slice? It's evidently lower than for the whole data.
• 
  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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  Petraglyph

  @sir82 we're extrapolating the figures worldwide
• 
  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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• 

  Petraglyph

  What rules did you use in cases where the victim count is unstated or shown as a minimum value?
  

  From the thread referenced:

  '10+' could mean any number 10 and above, and 'Unclear' could mean any number 1 and above.

  These were not being counted in the total.
  

  I replaced all the '10+' with the number 10, and all the 'Unclear' with the number 1...
  

  The total number of victims on this list is 1857.
  

  This means the ratio is 1857 victims / 1006 abusers = 1.85/1 ratio
  
• 
  37

  Australian Branch Stats?

  by Marvin Shilmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i'm working on some statistical analysis of child abuse data made public by the royal commission.

  while i'm working on this, can someone here do me a favor and look up the peak publisher figures reported by watchtower for the australian branch for each of the years from 2005 through 2014?

  my thanks in advance.

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  Petraglyph

  In the 1006 thread I calculated the ratio (conservatively) to be 1.85 victims per abuser.

  So with 28,827 known abusers, using the ratio of 1.85 victims per 1 abuser, this suggests there have been 53,330 child abuse victims in the 10 year period 2005-2014.

  Those children could fill a convention stadium!

  
  

  
  
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  20

  The 1006 list is on the Royal Commission Website!!!!

  by Petraglyph in

  1. watchtower
  2. child-abuse

  it seems they do have a database!

  !you can view it here on the royal commission website:.

  http://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/exhibits/636f01a5-50db-4b59-a35e-a24ae07fb0ad/case-study-29,-july-2015,-sydney.

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  Petraglyph

  @Oubliette

  I did a bit of work on fastJehu's spreadsheet...

  '10+' could mean any number 10 and above, and 'Unclear' could mean any number 1 and above.

  These were not being counted in the total.

  I replaced all the '10+' with the number 10, and all the 'Unclear' with the number 1...

  The total number of victims on this list is 1857.

  This means the ratio is 1857 victims / 1006 abusers = 1.85/1 ratio
  
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  22

  Huge list of victims

  by umbertoecho in

  1. watchtower
  2. scandals

  https://www.reddit.com/domain/childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/.compact.

  i pressed all the wrong buttons.

  here it is, posted about an hour ago..

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  Petraglyph

  Thanks fastjehu

  '10+' could mean any number 10 and above, and 'Unclear' could mean any number 1 and above.

  These were not being counted in the total.

  I replaced all the '10+' with the number 10, and all the 'Unclear' with the number 1...

  The total number of victims on this list is 1857.
• 
  20

  The 1006 list is on the Royal Commission Website!!!!

  by Petraglyph in

  1. watchtower
  2. child-abuse

  it seems they do have a database!

  !you can view it here on the royal commission website:.

  http://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/exhibits/636f01a5-50db-4b59-a35e-a24ae07fb0ad/case-study-29,-july-2015,-sydney.

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  Petraglyph

  There's already a thread for this:

  http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/422200001/huge-list-victims
• 
  20

  The 1006 list is on the Royal Commission Website!!!!

  by Petraglyph in

  1. watchtower
  2. child-abuse

  it seems they do have a database!

  !you can view it here on the royal commission website:.

  http://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/exhibits/636f01a5-50db-4b59-a35e-a24ae07fb0ad/case-study-29,-july-2015,-sydney.

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  Petraglyph

  breakfast of champions2 minutes ago

  Question:

  Is this the actual list produced by watchtower? ie, do we know this is not an interpretation or summary of evidence provided by watchtower, but their very own original document?

  It's on the Royal Commission website, tendered by Angus Stewart. It's as official as it could possibly be.
• 
  20

  The 1006 list is on the Royal Commission Website!!!!

  by Petraglyph in

  1. watchtower
  2. child-abuse

  it seems they do have a database!

  !you can view it here on the royal commission website:.

  http://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/exhibits/636f01a5-50db-4b59-a35e-a24ae07fb0ad/case-study-29,-july-2015,-sydney.

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  Petraglyph

  It seems they DO have a database!!

  You can view it here on the Royal Commission website:

  http://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/exhibits/636f01a5-50db-4b59-a35e-a24ae07fb0ad/case-study-29,-july-2015,-sydney
  

  Exhibit Number	Hearing Day	Tendered By	Witness Names	Date Tendered
  29-0031	Day 153	Angus Stewart SC	NA	05-Aug-15

  Case File Analysis

  Document ID: WAT.0021.001.0001

  Document Date: 04-Aug-15

  
  

  956 kB

  The link to the actual file:

  http://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/downloadfile.ashx?guid=5e54b0b6-b620-42d8-8eab-8e98413d1528&type=exhibit&filename=WAT.0021.001.0001&fileextension=pdf

  Same link with a URL shortener:

  http://goo.gl/RtcZ9J

  I see that there are 1,730 alleged victims noted!!
  

  I don't know if that total includes the ones that say '10+' or 'Unclear' as these are not proper numbers that would be added by a SUM() function.