If you had asked me this question in March, I would have said Trump will almost certainly lose. Even with the economy doing well, there was enough shrugging of the shoulders among some of his base, disillusion by others in how he under delivered on things like the wall, and then finally the Covid virus and the mixed opinions on his handling.
However, the Left yet again shoots itself in the foot. They can't help themselves. The Floyd incident and the spiraling out of the control resulting from it, along with the Left's idiotic coddling of the radicals that make their base, have given Trump new life.
I would say the numbers are not great, but if we learn a lesson about 2016, polls cannot be trusted.