Posts by shepherdless

26

Judicial meeting questions.

by Fader812 in

why do elders ask such perverted questions during judicial meetings?

kinda creeped me out, actually creeped me out a lot.

.

shepherdless

On an old thread here, someone (I think it was Billy the Ex-Bethelite) said he brought along some barbie and ken dolls to his JC meeting. He knew what kind of questions were coming.

85

Are you a Christian Who Accepts Evolution?

by cofty in

if you identify as a christian but you have accepted that the diversity of life - including humans - resulted from a process of biological evolution could you add your name please?.

just to be clear i am referring to the fact that our physical lineage could literally be traced back all the way to non-human species.. if you like maybe you could comment on why you see not conflict between evolution and your christian faith.. there is a tendency to conflate evolution with atheism.

it would be good to show that this is not the case..

shepherdless

Christians do not believe that Jesus died to balance up the sins of Adam. They believe Jesus' death was the vicarious punishment for their own sins.

Exactly, at least amongst Catholics and many of the Protestant religions, and I think Orthodox as well. Hence the mantra often heard; "He died for your sins." (ie Your sins, not Adam's or Eve's sins.)

I am not 100% certain, but I am fairly sure that the Catholics interpreted the ransom sacrifice as an atonement for our sins (not Adamic sin) well before the discovery of evolution.

in answer to the original question, I am not a believer, but if I were to ask any of my Catholic relatives (there are lots; one of them is a priest) they would all accept evolution and other sciences as facts. The only exception is there are a few who think anthropogenic climate change is a conspiratorial hoax. All the Catholics I know were taught that Genesis should not be read literally. They think that the fact that God can create clever complicated scientific principles which in turn create the world and universe, and leave no evidentiary trace, just show (to them) how amazing God is.

Interestingly, I think a lot of them would be troubled if you told them Exodus couldn't have happened either.

23

Aust 2016 Census observations: JW's getting older, more kids leaving, and 30+ group aren't returning

by shepherdless in

1. median age.

experts will tell you that if you want to know if a population is in growth or decline, the best single number to look at is the median age of the population.

i have extracted aust census data and calculated the following approx median ages:.

shepherdless

Thanks jwleaks. I just should point out that those numbers are unlikely to increase in a linear fashion. The median age could well go over 50, but may well start to drift down again as the baby boomers die off. By the time it reaches a median age of 72.3, it will just be a few old ladies in a nursing home.

23

Aust 2016 Census observations: JW's getting older, more kids leaving, and 30+ group aren't returning

by shepherdless in

1. median age.

experts will tell you that if you want to know if a population is in growth or decline, the best single number to look at is the median age of the population.

i have extracted aust census data and calculated the following approx median ages:.

shepherdless

Thanks everyone.

Just a few brief points:

From a quick glance, the numbers drop sharply as the move from 15 to 20 to 25. Stablise for 40 year olds, and the drop again as people start to die off.

Yes, that is broadly it. I have a 1 year breakdown as well, that shows that the numbers drop in a virtually continuous trickle, and then stops at about age 27. Any other group is reasonably stable.

The 5 year increase in median age over a ten year period is quite astounding. Pity not all countries have reached this stage yet.

Buried in the detail of the 2014 Pew Research into US religion, a similar trend of increasing median age for JW's, is shown. I suspect something similar may be happening there, and a lot of other places. [Note: the Pew report calculates median ages of adults (ie those over 18). To compare the Pew medians to the ones in my OP, subtract 9]

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/

It is a good point that inactive ones return when having children. Sadly, I have seen that is often the case with ones that leave and marry unbelievers and then return upon childbirth.

Yes, I married a POMI. That is why I am here. Admiral Akbar said it best:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F4qzPbcFiA

I will try to get some more interesting data out in the next few days.

23

Aust 2016 Census observations: JW's getting older, more kids leaving, and 30+ group aren't returning

by shepherdless in

1. median age.

experts will tell you that if you want to know if a population is in growth or decline, the best single number to look at is the median age of the population.

i have extracted aust census data and calculated the following approx median ages:.

shepherdless

Hi sbf, I don't have enough confidence in the data to read anything into that tiny acceleration in the median age. The main point is that it increased significantly. The higher it goes, the faster the future decline, and the harder it is to turn it around.

Just for interest sake, I projected the figures forward to see what they might be in 5 years time and 10 years time. All things being equal, i calculated that in 5 years the median age would be 48 and overall decline would be 4%. In 10 years, the median age would be 53 and there would be a further 4% decline. Of course, a lot can change and I wouldn't want to be held to those numbers.

Already, there are as many JW's over 75 as there are under 10. Probably in about 7 years there will be more JW's over 80 as under 10. I just wonder how teenagers in particular will cope with that, will young people generally be able to take any of it seriously, etc.

Of course, what is happening in Australia is probably happening (or has happened or will soon happen) in all first world countries.

23

Aust 2016 Census observations: JW's getting older, more kids leaving, and 30+ group aren't returning

by shepherdless in

1. median age.

experts will tell you that if you want to know if a population is in growth or decline, the best single number to look at is the median age of the population.

i have extracted aust census data and calculated the following approx median ages:.

shepherdless

Thanks. I will try to extract some more interesting data over the next few days.

25

Aust Census Data shows decrease while Yearbook shows increase

by shepherdless in

on threads about 8 or 9 months ago, i put up some detailed data from the 2011 and 2006 australian censuses.

data from the 2016 census is becoming available in stages, and i mentioned recently that i would do an update.

finally, as of about today, some data of interest is available, and i have started to look at this, but it is time consuming, and i am time-poor.. anyway, the first search i have conducted is just a simple breakdown of the number of people describing themselves as jw's.

shepherdless

Yes, Island Man, that is probably the explanation in a nutshell. More PIMO's and less POMI's in recent times.

jwfacts: you are more than welcome to use any data I have. I can send it to you in excel format if it helps.

23

Aust 2016 Census observations: JW's getting older, more kids leaving, and 30+ group aren't returning

by shepherdless in

1. median age.

experts will tell you that if you want to know if a population is in growth or decline, the best single number to look at is the median age of the population.

i have extracted aust census data and calculated the following approx median ages:.

shepherdless

1. Median Age

Experts will tell you that if you want to know if a population is in growth or decline, the best single number to look at is the median age of the population. I have extracted Aust census data and calculated the following approx median ages:

Year 2006: Aust population: 37.0 JW's: 38.7

Year 2011: Aust population: 37.6 JW's: 41.2

Year 2016: Aust population: 38.1 JW's: 43.9

For complicated reasons, I am not confident of the last decimal point, in the above. However, I am confident that the numbers broadly represent the situation.

To put it in words, over 10 years, that median age of the Aust population rose slightly (1.1 years), but the JW median age went up substantially (5.2 years). A median of anything over around 40 would normally indicate decline, and the higher the number, the faster the decline.

2. Age Cohort Detail

Here is a breakdown of JW's from the last 3 censuses, into 5 year cohorts:

Comparing 2011 to 2016, these number show that in every 5 year age category below 60, JW's have less adherents. Aust has a high immigration rate and the numbers look worse for the Borg if I extract out those from 2016 who were not in Aust in 2011. (It is not hard to do, but I suspect I will just confuse people with too many numbers if I set that out.)

3. The "return to Jehovah"'s have stopped returning

Another way to look at the data is to see what has happened to each cohort over 10 years. This involves reading the above chart diagonally, instead of straight down. Again, I haven't included the data for the sake of simplicity, but the increase in most cohorts between 2006 and 2011 is around the same number of JW's who in 2011 reported they were living outside of Aust in 2006 (ie, most of the increases were immigrants). The major exception is the significant increase in the 1 to 4 cohort.

To explain, the above chart shows that in 2006, the number in the 1 to 4 cohort was 4058. in 2011, these kids were in the 5 to 9 bracket. Note there were now 4857 of them. That is 799 young kids drawn in by their parents. (Actually there were only 404 of them, because 295 of those kids were immigrants.)

Maybe the Borg is having a lot of success recruiting young families. I think the more likely explanation is that a lot of the teens and young adults who left, started drifting back into the Borg when they settled down and started having kids themselves. This "return to Jehovah" group was probably the difference between expansion and decline in the past.

This changed in 2016. Doing the same exercise comparing 2011 to 2016, the effect is still there, but it is very small. For the 0 to 4 bracket, there is only an increase of 217 kids, which is explainable by immigration.

This is the reason I say in the title "the 30+ group aren't returning to Jehovah any more".

4. It is not just the young ones who are leaving

If you do the same exercise of following a cohort from 2011 to 2016 (ie reading the numbers diagonally, instead of straight down) you will note that they are actually losing numbers in every single age cohort. To put it another way, the reason the numbers for the 60+ groups are holding up is not because they are staying, it is because the younger ones are getting older and taking their places.

1

Census & Publisher Trends for JWs in Australia, Canada & New Zealand: 1996-2016

by steve2 in

i have graphed jw census and average publisher data from 3 countries with similar western democratic governments: australia, canada and new zealand (nz).

the census data is sourced from respective government publications and average publishers from jw organization yearbooks.. census data is incomplete either because a country did not have a census in the year under review or results from 2016 for that country are not currently available or i have not been able to source the data.

i welcome others filling the gaps!.

shepherdless

Thanks steve2. It looks like a universal trend, but more pronounced in Canada. As someone said on another thread, there must be an increase in PIMO's and/or a decrease in POMI's in renect times, for these figures to make sense.

25

Aust Census Data shows decrease while Yearbook shows increase

by shepherdless in

on threads about 8 or 9 months ago, i put up some detailed data from the 2011 and 2006 australian censuses.

data from the 2016 census is becoming available in stages, and i mentioned recently that i would do an update.

finally, as of about today, some data of interest is available, and i have started to look at this, but it is time consuming, and i am time-poor.. anyway, the first search i have conducted is just a simple breakdown of the number of people describing themselves as jw's.

shepherdless

Thanks everyone for comments. I kept thinking I must have made a mistake extracting the data, because I was not expecting a fall at all, let alone 3.5%.

What would be really fascinating would be an age profile of JWs from the latest data if possible. I predict that the average age of JWs is climbing rapidly.

Yes I am keen to extract this as well. It might have to wait until tomorrow, though.

steve2: Yes, I would expect whatever trends are occurring in Aust would be occurring in NZ as well, given the close cultural ties. Looking forward to seeing your data.

I will be back with more data when I get the chance.