Posts by shepherdless

11

Isis and failed prophecy

by snare&racket in

jw
friends

hi everybody, hope you are all well!

i read this today and thought of the jw's and you guys.. it's an article from today's paper about isis and a recent victory over the town of dabiq.

isis have long claimed that this will be the city where good will face evil i.e islam v christianity/western powers.

In answer to LUHE's question, Dabiq is north of Aleppo not far from the Turkish border. The "Sunni militants" in that area are, as I understand it, Turkish proxys trying to prevent 2 Kurdish regions linking up. It would be more accurate to describe them as "foreign backed militants who happen to be predominantly Sunni". Much of the actual fighting to remove ISIS from that region was done by Kurds (who are also Sunni).

ISIS lost Dabiq months ago, by the way. But yes, it's loss would mean that ISIS can't be the caliphate that was prophesied.

18

Forcing a meaning?

by CitizenofEarth in

i was looking for the word that jwfacts.com used for "forcing a meaning" into ex.

a scripture.

fx.

shepherdless

Vanderhoven, that sounds like an excellent approach in the right setting. I think your reasoning is very sound and it would be very convincing to anyone even partially open-minded.

I am in a different setting, where the only theological discussion I would engage in, would be my wife and her relatives. If I were to try your approach, I would not be able to get more than the first few words into that dialogue before being shut down and accused of something.

I have to take a more subtle approach. For example, I have been able to introduce the concept of "confirmation bias" to my wife as the explanation for what is happening in US politics. We have similar views on US politics and it was easy. She even recently sent me a link to a news article that made controversial climate change assertions, with a joke about it being our "daily dose of confirmation bias". Yay! She got the point. We can look at what other areas in our life we might observe confirmation bias, later.

I think if I was to raise the word "eisegesis" at home in a biblical context, I would be instantly deafened and blinded by alarm bells and flashing red lights. Hence I am trying to think of non-biblical examples such as Nostradamus. The Oracle of Delphi might be another good example. I can't think of any others at the moment.

10

Kingdom Ministry Detailed Service Reports vs Field Service Highlights.

by ToesUp in

why did the watchtower eliminate the detailed service report (last report dec. 2008) and replace it in jan. 2009 with the field service highlights?

(sorry about the formatting).. *** km 12/08 p. 2 august service report *** (source wt library, kingdom ministry 2008 , 2009).

august service report.

shepherdless

A simple and easy method is to open the excel spreadsheet and use the "Snipping Tool". That creates a jpg image of whatever extract you want, which can easily be uploaded to this site.

The snipping tool is often on your task bar at the bottom of your screen. If you can't see it there, go to start menu, then programs, then accessories, and you should see it.

18

Forcing a meaning?

by CitizenofEarth in

i was looking for the word that jwfacts.com used for "forcing a meaning" into ex.

a scripture.

fx.

shepherdless

Exegesis and eisegesis are words I had never come across before coming to this site. Just so apt.

i reckon that if you want to start introducing the terms to a JW you know, it might be better to talk about something non-biblical, such as how Nostradamus's "predictions" are interpreted in an eisegesis fashion.

30

Comparing Total Numbers Baptized During the 1990s and the Last Ten Years:

by steve2 in

sometimes, comparing raw numbers provides a more clear-cut numerical picture of growth or otherwise than percentages.

below are the numbers for peak publishers (rounded off so that 4,1 represents more than 4,100,000) for each year throughout the 1990s and those for the last ten years.. year: peak* baptisms.

* peak publishers abbreviated - simply to show annual baptisms in relation to peak publishers.. the main point: .

shepherdless

My 2c worth:

The situation may currently be slightly worse for Watchtower than the above baptism figures suggest. Firstly, baptism figures are what might be called a "lag indicator" because the actual baptism is a culmination of a year or two of effort. Hence eg the 2016 figure may be more a reflection of success in 2014 to 2015, than 2016. Secondly, the recent emphasis on child baptism would have brought forward a few baptisms, and that is a once-off.

For worldwide decline, I think we would see baptism numbers below 200,000, which may be 5 years or so away; maybe longer. Again, as it is a lag indicator, I think the publisher numbers would be already dropping by the time we see that.

sbf has previously argued that the number of congregations is the best indicator of growth. I agree, and over the last 5 years the no of congs grew 9.2%, whereas av pubs increased 10%. The Borg is still growing, but not in Western countries. I also think that Watchtower has bigger problems on the financial side, but that is another story.

22

cleveland ohio convention results

by nowwhat? in

of 3 in cleveland: avg.

attendance 7500 baptised 27 a robust growth of 0.38%!

not my convention so no details..

shepherdless

Firstly, I love reading these results. I hope people keep posting them.

I have been reading these baptism percentages for some time. I think the highest I saw was one in Germany where a ratio of about 1% were baptised. From memory, there were some people from other countries getting baptised there, and that was some time ago. Generally it has been in the range 0.5% to 0.25% for a while, with most of the conventions in USA or U.K.

However, in the last Yearbook:

USA had a baptism rate of 2.4% against av publishers (around 2 per cong)

"Britain" had a baptism rate of 1.7% against av publishers (around 1.4 per cong).

I was wondering why such a difference. I think there is around 3 times a year where people get baptised in numbers. Is that right? Also, do a lot of non-publishers attend regional conventions? The only other explanation I can think of is that where a lot get baptised at a convention, perhaps people tend not to report it here. I am not one who thinks the numbers are falsified. Anyone have any other possible explanations?

26

Judicial meeting questions.

by Fader812 in

why do elders ask such perverted questions during judicial meetings?

kinda creeped me out, actually creeped me out a lot.

.

shepherdless

On an old thread here, someone (I think it was Billy the Ex-Bethelite) said he brought along some barbie and ken dolls to his JC meeting. He knew what kind of questions were coming.

85

Are you a Christian Who Accepts Evolution?

by cofty in

if you identify as a christian but you have accepted that the diversity of life - including humans - resulted from a process of biological evolution could you add your name please?.

just to be clear i am referring to the fact that our physical lineage could literally be traced back all the way to non-human species.. if you like maybe you could comment on why you see not conflict between evolution and your christian faith.. there is a tendency to conflate evolution with atheism.

it would be good to show that this is not the case..

shepherdless

Christians do not believe that Jesus died to balance up the sins of Adam. They believe Jesus' death was the vicarious punishment for their own sins.

Exactly, at least amongst Catholics and many of the Protestant religions, and I think Orthodox as well. Hence the mantra often heard; "He died for your sins." (ie Your sins, not Adam's or Eve's sins.)

I am not 100% certain, but I am fairly sure that the Catholics interpreted the ransom sacrifice as an atonement for our sins (not Adamic sin) well before the discovery of evolution.

in answer to the original question, I am not a believer, but if I were to ask any of my Catholic relatives (there are lots; one of them is a priest) they would all accept evolution and other sciences as facts. The only exception is there are a few who think anthropogenic climate change is a conspiratorial hoax. All the Catholics I know were taught that Genesis should not be read literally. They think that the fact that God can create clever complicated scientific principles which in turn create the world and universe, and leave no evidentiary trace, just show (to them) how amazing God is.

Interestingly, I think a lot of them would be troubled if you told them Exodus couldn't have happened either.

23

Aust 2016 Census observations: JW's getting older, more kids leaving, and 30+ group aren't returning

by shepherdless in

1. median age.

experts will tell you that if you want to know if a population is in growth or decline, the best single number to look at is the median age of the population.

i have extracted aust census data and calculated the following approx median ages:.

shepherdless

Thanks jwleaks. I just should point out that those numbers are unlikely to increase in a linear fashion. The median age could well go over 50, but may well start to drift down again as the baby boomers die off. By the time it reaches a median age of 72.3, it will just be a few old ladies in a nursing home.

23

Aust 2016 Census observations: JW's getting older, more kids leaving, and 30+ group aren't returning

by shepherdless in

1. median age.

experts will tell you that if you want to know if a population is in growth or decline, the best single number to look at is the median age of the population.

i have extracted aust census data and calculated the following approx median ages:.

shepherdless

Thanks everyone.

Just a few brief points:

From a quick glance, the numbers drop sharply as the move from 15 to 20 to 25. Stablise for 40 year olds, and the drop again as people start to die off.

Yes, that is broadly it. I have a 1 year breakdown as well, that shows that the numbers drop in a virtually continuous trickle, and then stops at about age 27. Any other group is reasonably stable.

The 5 year increase in median age over a ten year period is quite astounding. Pity not all countries have reached this stage yet.

Buried in the detail of the 2014 Pew Research into US religion, a similar trend of increasing median age for JW's, is shown. I suspect something similar may be happening there, and a lot of other places. [Note: the Pew report calculates median ages of adults (ie those over 18). To compare the Pew medians to the ones in my OP, subtract 9]

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/

It is a good point that inactive ones return when having children. Sadly, I have seen that is often the case with ones that leave and marry unbelievers and then return upon childbirth.

Yes, I married a POMI. That is why I am here. Admiral Akbar said it best:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F4qzPbcFiA

I will try to get some more interesting data out in the next few days.