Posts by shepherdless

13

Aust Census: JW's and Divorce Rates

by shepherdless in

this post is actually in answer to a question i got from jwfacts.

i think the issue was also raised on a recent thread.. first, some data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses:.

(a) 1,751,733 (7.5% of population) reported being in a de-facto couple on census night, but .

shepherdless

Thanks for the compliment, sbf.

I am not as well read as you presume. I just don't get much time to read books; I don't even watch tv these days.

I haven't seen the book, Sects and Stats, but from the table of contents it looks like the author focuses on "longitudinal data" (ie same data measured at different times) which I think is the most useful approach to understanding trends etc.

i sped read the Cragun and Lawson article. Some excellent observations there, using the figures Mormons, SDA and Watchtower publish.

I read some extracts of David Voas, some time ago. He made some excellent points about why religion generally is in decline, that I have to agree with, and backs it up with data. I agree decline is generational. From memory, he is the one who uses the Atlantic fishermen analogy, to describe JW's. I don't agree with that analogy, as I think the ordinary publishers are the "catch" not the fishermen.

Like you, I have also read somewhere that decline itself is not accepted by some "experts". That is bizarre. My explanation for such people is that those that are intellectually proud tend to be more vulnerable to "confirmation bias" than the average person. We were living in a time when one of the greatest events of human history is happening around us; the unshackling of society from the chains of religious superstition. There are very credible stats from USA, South Korea and Aust in recent times (some of the more religious of the advanced countries) each showing religion in decline at the rate of about 1% per year.

78

Can you prove Jesus existed outside of Bible (so called) evidence?

by punkofnice in

i thought i'd done a thread on this before but can't find it.. so.

did jesus actually exist?.

without using the bible i'd like to see obvious proof..

shepherdless

Just to respond to one of Fisherman's arguments, the concept of "Anno Domini" (ie calculating years starting from the alleged birth of Jesus) was invented by Dionysius Exiguus in about 525 AD. Before that, the Julian calendar and other calendars were based on names of Consuls or other rulers, and the number of years they had been in power.

13

Aust Census: JW's and Divorce Rates

by shepherdless in

this post is actually in answer to a question i got from jwfacts.

i think the issue was also raised on a recent thread.. first, some data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses:.

(a) 1,751,733 (7.5% of population) reported being in a de-facto couple on census night, but .

shepherdless

Sorry to take so long to reply, sbf.

With statistics from censuses in general, there are lots of complicating factors to consider. When we see graphs, and tables of numbers, we may naturally tend think that the production of the data was as reliable, accurate and uniform as the reassuringly organised method of its display. Unfortunately there is lots of room for skewed data and misleading comparisons to arise.

Absolutely. I am only an amateur, and I am learning a lot. I have seen glossy charts and data elsewhere, and I now know how dodgy that data can be; particularly if there is a political agenda.

The format of the census may differ from year to year...

For the "religion" question, the only change (and it was a big one) was to move "no religion" from bottom to top, as shown in the following:

Extract from 2011 form:

Extract from 2016 form:

Christian groups lobbied heavily against this change before the census, but lost, because the logic of the census form elsewhere is that the most common answer should be at the top of the list.

they initiatiated a campaign to contact and encourage all inactive Mormons to identify as Mormons...

That happened in the Aust census as well. There was a Christian group that asked people to record themselves as Christian, to counterbalance the increase in Islam.

The UK census is pretty useless at counting JWs because...

Yes, I agree. I read that link. I didn't check the form but it sounds like the main fault with the UK form is that you can just select "Christian". You can't do that on the Aust form; see above. And yes, the author of that article doesn't understand JW's.

* * * * *

As a general comment from me, there were always going to be problems with the interpretation of the religion vs divorce statistics. I realised a few as I was attempting the task. Others have pointed out a few more. I think the stats are still useful, but only as a broad guide.

I plan to do a few more, when I get the time, (eg income, education levels etc) which should be more straightforward and less open to interpretation.

28

When do you think the 7 clowns will add more members to the exclusive GB club ?

by Chook in

will they draw a new name out of a hat or do a kiss test i don't know..

shepherdless

I think there have been studies that show committees of more than about 8 or 9 people don't function very well. I can't imagine they would be too keen on adding any.

Another factor is that (according to Ray Franz) any decision requires a two thirds majority to pass. If so, a committee of 7 would require support from at least 5. Adding another GB member would make it even harder (6 out of 8). If the GB is to have any hope of carrying out much needed reforms, they would be better going to 6 ( or perhaps 9) members.

27

How to convince someone to leave.

by Smiruk in

jw
friends

hey everyone, long time lurker, first time poster.

i'm currently in a jehovah's witnesses household, which is very deep into the "truth".

i woke up a few months ago, and i haven't told my parents yet.

shepherdless

Welcome, and well done at working it all out, smiruk!

It is great to see so many young ones reaching out, for facts, logic and evidence.

You ask a question about how to wake your parents up. (Or that is how I interpret your question). It is very difficult to do so. That video that you put up gives you an understanding of the psychology, and what you are up against. Another good video (arguably better) is "bending truth" by Theremin Trees, which goes further into the psychology.

10

My awakening and concern

by Issa in

good evening everyone, i go by issa.

as many former ex-witnesses, i "woke up" from believing that the jw org is the "truth".

this happened during this month thanks to information from jw-facts and youtube videos about ex-witnesses' experience in this org.

shepherdless

Welcome Issa

firstly, congratulations on "waking up" at (I presume) a very young age. You have overcome one of life's more difficult challenges (escaping a high control indoctrinating group), which is a challenge that many fail, and many more do not understand, because they have never been in that situation.

In relation to trying to explain it to your family, it sounds like they are only half in. I would tread carefully, trying to introduce one bit of info at a time, perhaps saying that you discovered that the org is not what it appears to be, and leading into a few topics like that. From reading other posts, what causes people to wake varies, but the 607 vs 587 thing is probably the most common. Also, bear in mind that you can't wake someone; they have to want to wake up themselves, so be prepared to be disappointed. Other than that, I am sure someone will be along soon with some better advice.

13

Aust Census: JW's and Divorce Rates

by shepherdless in

this post is actually in answer to a question i got from jwfacts.

i think the issue was also raised on a recent thread.. first, some data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses:.

(a) 1,751,733 (7.5% of population) reported being in a de-facto couple on census night, but .

shepherdless

Thanks all for comments. I will try to briefly deal with a few of them:

Interesting the increase in the percentage divorced from 5.86% to 6.47% in just 5 years.

It could be connected to the median age going up in those 5 years. It is surprising, though.

A relevant question is, "What percentage of divorced JWs were divorced BEFORE they became Witnesses?"

That is a good question. I have no easy way of separating that out. However, "divorced" means divorced and not in a new relationship on census night, which should limit such numbers. Also, you could ask the same question of any of the other religions, including SDA and Mormons who appear to be having more recruitment success.

And it could be that many JWs divorce non-JW partners.

Yes that would be a significant proportion. However, I think JW's divorcing non-JW's is an appropriate inclusion and I wouldn't separate them out if I could.

Also..... What about those that have remarried?

They are counted as "married", as pointed out by Darkspilver. Yes, the number of people who have ever divorced would be way higher. As I said above, "Divorced" means divorced and not in a new relationship on census night.

* * *

These good comments show the limitations of the use of the data from the census, when trying to compare divorce statistics between different religions. However, the limitations broadly apply to each of the religions listed, not just JW. If you accept the data for what it is, I think it is still valid to conclude that (to repeat myself above) divorce and separation rates for JW's are pretty typical of what you would find in "Christendom".

13

Aust Census: JW's and Divorce Rates

by shepherdless in

this post is actually in answer to a question i got from jwfacts.

i think the issue was also raised on a recent thread.. first, some data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses:.

(a) 1,751,733 (7.5% of population) reported being in a de-facto couple on census night, but .

shepherdless

Hi Steve,

i use excel as well, but I use the snipping tool to create a jpg image. I only upload the jpg image.

i will say a bit more when I get the chance.

13

Aust Census: JW's and Divorce Rates

by shepherdless in

this post is actually in answer to a question i got from jwfacts.

i think the issue was also raised on a recent thread.. first, some data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses:.

(a) 1,751,733 (7.5% of population) reported being in a de-facto couple on census night, but .

shepherdless

This post is actually in answer to a question I got from jwfacts. I think the issue was also raised on a recent thread.

First, some data from the 2011 and 2016 censuses:

Basically, that data shows that compared to the overall population, JW's are a little less likely to be divorced, but they are quickly catching up with the rest of the population in this regard. The data shows that they are a little more likely to be separated. The higher rate of being widowed is almost certainly because as a group they are significantly older than the population.

The divorce rates of JW's compared to selected other religions can be summarized in the following table:

I included Anglican to be fair. The Anglicans in Australia are predominantly old, and historically had a more relaxed attitude to divorce than other religions. JW's fare worse than all the other religions shown. Again to be fair, apart from the Anglicans, JW's are typically older than members of those other religions, and that has an effect. I have a way of cancelling that effect out, but I would probably confuse everyone with my methodology. I included numbers for Hindu and Islam, but those numbers are partially a reflection of Aust immigration rules, and so are not a fair comparison.

The "take home message" is that divorce and separation rates for JW's are pretty typical of what you would find in "Christendom".

De facto marriages are far fewer amongst JW's. I won't put up the charts but the numbers in brief are that:

(a) 1,751,733 (7.5% of population) reported being in a de-facto couple on census night, but

(b) only 1,323 (1.6% of JW's) reported being JW's in a de-facto couple.

Interestingly, while for the general population, 95% of those in a de-facto couple spent census night in the same house as their partner, only 79% of JW's in a de-facto couple spent census night in the same house.

For the general population, 5.7% of those de-facto couples were same sex couples. For those claiming to be JW's 3.8% of those de-facto couples were same sex couples. To put it another way, 18 males and 20 females:

(a) wrote on their census form that they were Jehovahs Witnesses (there is no separate box to tick accidentally); and

(b) reported that they were spending census night with someone of the same sex as a de-facto couple.

11

Isis and failed prophecy

by snare&racket in

jw
friends

hi everybody, hope you are all well!

i read this today and thought of the jw's and you guys.. it's an article from today's paper about isis and a recent victory over the town of dabiq.

isis have long claimed that this will be the city where good will face evil i.e islam v christianity/western powers.

shepherdless

In answer to LUHE's question, Dabiq is north of Aleppo not far from the Turkish border. The "Sunni militants" in that area are, as I understand it, Turkish proxys trying to prevent 2 Kurdish regions linking up. It would be more accurate to describe them as "foreign backed militants who happen to be predominantly Sunni". Much of the actual fighting to remove ISIS from that region was done by Kurds (who are also Sunni).

ISIS lost Dabiq months ago, by the way. But yes, it's loss would mean that ISIS can't be the caliphate that was prophesied.